Strategic assessment summary, spring 2009

Report: 13
Date: 8 June 2009
By: Director of Resources on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This summarises the risks and challenges facing the MPS over the next 5-10 years. It details how these are considered in the strategy development and business planning process.

A. Recommendation

That

1. members note the challenges and risks arising from London’s growth;
2. note the relationship between horizon scanning work, corporate strategy and business planning; and
3. propose any other areas they consider critical to the future of the MPS and MPA

B. Supporting information

Introduction

1. The report looks beyond the delivery of the 2012 Olympics games and provides members with an overview of the likely operating environment for the MPS as the landscape of London changes. It assesses the scale of demographic, social, economic, technological and legislative change, and outlines the strategic risks that this will create for the organisation.

Changes over the next 5-10 years

Demography [1]

2. London’s population will increase from the current 7.6m to 7.9m by 2014 and 8.1m by 2019. Growth in East London will be over double the rate of the rest of London (4.8% compared to 1.9%).

3. London’s population will become more multiracial, multilingual and multicultural. The black and minority ethnic (BME) population will reach 36% by 2014 and 37% by 2019, compared to 33% today. London’s youth population will gradually increase from 2013 and by 2019 will be 871,000, compared to 847,000 today. The number of languages spoken will increase as new communities arrive and settle in the city.

Economy and infrastructure [2]

4. The most significant changes to London are driven by the government-sponsored Thames Gateway project. Four ‘economic transformers’ form the cornerstones:

•  Olympic Park
•  Canary Wharf
•  Ebbsfleet Valley residential development
•  London Gateway container port at Shell Haven

5. The Olympic legacy will transform the lower Lea Valley, regenerating Stratford town centre, and creating new residential and leisure developments. Together with Thames Gateway developments, the landscape of East London will be transformed as old estates are demolished and replaced with new accommodation.

6. The Gateway project will have a significant impact on the transport infrastructure and commuter patterns. Road haulage around the M25 will increase. Capacity on the Tube and London Overground will increase as a result of TfL enhancements and the Crossrail project. Passenger volume is expected to outstrip these improvements. There will be a 25% increase in rail and tube journeys by 2016 compared to 2006 (excluding Crossrail). Commuting will increase from outside the MPS region, meaning that the MPS will experience more service users, particularly during the working week. London City Airport is expanding from 80,000 flights to 120,000 flights by 2010.

7. Pressure on social housing will continue. The social housing waiting list in London has doubled between 1998 and 2007. Overcrowding in the private renting sector has also doubled. The recession has exacerbated the problem by delaying some new developments.

8. Between 2006 and 2016, London’s household profile will change significantly:

• 20% increase in lone-occupancy households from 1.1 to 1.4m
•  14% increase in lone parent households from 310,000 to 350,000
•  10% decrease in married households from 1.04 million to 930,000

Recession

9. The recession is not forecast to last into the medium term. However, the challenges from the recession will have lasting impacts. The cost to the government of bail-outs and other economic measures means that the MPS is likely to face a tightening budget in the long term.

Legislation

10. The Green Paper on policing will have a significant impact on policing in the medium term. The paper introduced the single measure of confidence in police and local authority partners. The MPS is shaping its strategy to ultimately drive improvements in public confidence.

11. Government has signalled its intention to bring more power and responsibility for policing to local people. Police services will provide more information and give greater weight to local priorities and expectations. Greater community involvement will also be extended to other parts of the criminal justice system. Work is underway to understand the impact the Comprehensive Area Assessments at borough and local authority level.

12. Although government has indicated a move to the local agenda, there will be a general election in late 2009 or early 2010, which may result in changes to policy around policing and criminal justice.

Technology

13. Internet-based communication will be even more widespread in the medium and long term. The Home Office is leading on the Intercept Modernisation Programme, to enable police services to better retain intercept material as part of fighting crime and terrorism.

14. Internet access and usage ‘on the move’ will become more prevalent. This is the natural evolution of the mobile phone market. At the recent G20 summit, protesters streamed live images and updates onto the internet. The trend is towards faster and wider communication globally that is more difficult to monitor and regulate. New communities will use the internet as the primary means of keeping contact with friends and family in their countries of origin.

15. The main government-driven technology is biometric ID cards. Timescales for the short and medium term are as follows:

•  2009 – workers in key locations (e.g. Airports) issued with cards. Biometric information will be on National Identity Register (NIR)
•  2010 – ID cards given to young people on voluntary basis
•  2012 – ID cards rolled out to people in large volumes
•  2012 – passport renewals will require biometric data to be on the NIR
  
• 2014/15 – 90% of foreign nationals in the UK will have an ID card

Strategic risks and opportunities

Counter terrorism

16. The threat from international terrorism will not diminish in the medium term. London will remain a target in the run up to and after the Olympics. Socio-economic and demographic challenges risk fuelling radicalisation. Many of the communities most susceptible to radicalisation live in deprived areas and perceive a lack of opportunity.

17. The MPS must place public safety as their first priority. This responsibility creates significant challenges in managing public expectation where intelligence, rather than existing evidence, drives a requirement for operational activity. There will continue to be operations where action must be taken at an early stage, ahead of any known evidential opportunity and therefore with the clear risk that no evidence may be discovered. The impact on public perception in respect of this activity will continue to be monitored and carefully considered.

18. The increasing diversity in London may risk increasing activity by far-right extremists. Far right parties have made gains at recent local elections. There is a risk that a small number of individuals may seek to copy the direct action activities that attract so much media attention for international terrorism. The MPS must continue to monitor and prevent far right extremism in London.

Confidence in the police

19. The MPS must build public confidence in the context of two cities: a prosperous London and a deprived London co-existing together with the added complexity of a multicultural population. The measure of confidence is joint between police and local authority and there is a risk that the socio-economic and deprivation challenges facing some areas may affect people’s confidence in police and wider public services.

20. Technology developments present reputational and public confidence risks to the MPS. The MPS must become accustomed to operating in the glare of internet-based social media and the greater scrutiny that it enables. The MPS must assess the impact of these communication tools and determine how best to make use of them in implementing it communication strategies.

The pledge, service delivery, and customer satisfaction

21. The recession and the increasing population present challenges for service delivery. The challenge to meet (and sustain) pledge commitments must be achieved in the context of a growing number of citizens and service users, but no real growth in resources.

22. The growth and increased diversity in London will drive differing expectations of service delivery. The MPS will need to be able to adapt its service to all communities if it is achieve an increase in service user satisfaction.

Gang culture and youth violence

23. The increase in the youth population will be most acute in areas that are already deprived. These are environments conducive to gang and youth violence. There is a risk that these problems will be perpetuated if new developments and regeneration projects do not ease some of the underlying social causes.

24. The number of 16-18 year olds not in education, employment or training (‘neet’) reached 12,000 (5.8%) in London in 2008. The impact of the recession is not clear but it has coincided with an increase of neets nationally. There is a risk that the number of neets will increase whilst the economy is weak. Borough data shows that the local authorities with the highest proportions of neets are those experiencing deprivation and higher crime levels. The MPS will need to analyse neet data as part of its horizon scanning activity.

Public protection and hate crime

25. Social practices in some new communities can cause friction with British law and human rights. Examples are honour crime, domestic violence, forced marriage and child abuse. Offending often goes unreported and requires proactive policing to build an accurate picture. There is a risk that ‘invisible’ crime will increase in the medium and long term.

26. There is a risk that race and faith crime will increase as London’s diverse communities will be sensitive to global events. Although there is very little ongoing racial tension, the potential for spontaneity and short term increases in minor offending will continue. The most recent example, Gaza, led to a sharp rise in anti-Semitic and anti-Islamic offences.

Burglary

27. The British Crime Survey tells us that people living alone are 2.5 times more likely to be victims of crime than those living in multi-occupancy homes. With the number of lone-occupancy households expected to rise by 20% in the next few years, there is a risk that the long term decline in burglary may begin to reverse. However, the regeneration of many parts of London present the MPS with the opportunity to influence the safe design of new developments through the ACPO Safe By Design project.

Organised crime

28. New industrial and commercial developments will impact on criminal activity. The MPS will need to consider the impact of the London Gateway on high value trafficking/smuggling and criminal networks. Criminal networks will continue to pose a significant threat to London, becoming more international in nature, using the internet to commit financial crime and money laundering.

E-crime [3]

29. Changing demographics and technological developments risk increasing e-Crime levels. As internet penetration and usage becomes more commonplace, it is likely to become an everyday tool to facilitate offending across the crime and ASB spectrum. The likely increase in e-Crime presents risks to the MPS organisational capability and capacity to deal with large volumes of this type of offending often committed in very quick time.

30. The MPS has created the Police Central e-Crime Unit (PCeU) to lead the national response to e-Crime. Although 80-90% of e-crime is fraud related, the PCEU will tackle illegal computer penetration and use of malicious software. As part of its remit, the PCeU will provide the MPS strategy and planning processes with annual strategic assessments.

31. A threat assessment is being carried out to scope the scale and effects of potential attacks on government, critical utilities or industries, such as banking and retail. The PceU currently does not have the resources to tackle this aspect of e-Crime although the risks are recognised as high. However, if further resources and additional funding becomes available the PceU is recognised as the appropriate unit to take on this responsibility.

Community cohesion

32. Community cohesion is key to good relations with the police and effective tackling of crime and ASB. There are two major risks to community cohesion. Firstly, the juxtaposition of skilled and qualified professionals with people on a much lower income could create tension. There is a risk that many jobs will be out of reach to the latter. 112,000 of the 195,000 jobs in the Gateway will require A Levels or a degree qualification. Currently, only one third of residents in the Gateway hold these.

33. The second risk comes from high levels of sub-letting in some developments. A high turnover of people, quick to move in and out as the economy fluctuates, creates areas with low levels of owner-occupiers. These conditions are not conducive to social cohesion as the population is less engaged in local neighbourhood life.

34. National ID cards present a potential risk to social and community cohesion. Illegal immigrants will not be eligible for ID cards. In the longer term, this may exclude them from accessing certain public services. This presents an issue for the MPS around how to police and protect a section of London’s community that is at risk of social exclusion.

Public order events and demonstrations

35. As the Olympic and Paralympic Games draw nearer, it is anticipated that the number of public order events that the MPS will have to police will increase. This will include the actual security operation for the Games as well as cultural Olympiad activities, which may place additional demands on the organisation. To ensure that core services are not affected, before, during or after the Games, careful consideration will have to be given to how these events are resourced. This coupled with an increased scrutiny of how large events and protests are policed, as witnessed in the recent G20 summit, will mean that the MPS will have to continue to utilise its assets in the most effective way possible in ensuring a quality service delivery to the public. Identified capacity and capability gaps in terms of meeting the demand on staffing will need to be managed flexibly to ensure that we do not create unaffordable legacy issues. A report on the specific challenges facing the service in delivering the Olympic safety and security plan was presented to the MPA sub-committee for the Olympics and Paralympics on 23 April 2009.

36. In the longer term, London’s diverse population will be increasingly affected by, or seek to influence, world events and foreign policy. Electronic media means that developments abroad, particularly around global unrest, are reported almost immediately. The risk to the MPS is a rise in spontaneous protests and demonstrations that are not planned, authorised or foreseeable.

37. Demonstrations and protests in the future could be further complicated by conflict between opposing viewpoints within London’s own diverse communities, each pressing for a different approach from the British government. There is a risk that the differing viewpoints and motives from demonstrations and events could lead to confrontation with police. This has a consequent impact on policing from an officer safety perspective, but also to public confidence and corporate reputation. Increased scrutiny, fuelled by electronic media, could distort public understanding of public event policing.

Marine policing

38. Policing the Thames will be impacted by the gateway. A growth in the population living on and using the river is already driving an increase in demand for this specialist service. The marine policing unit also provides support to counter terrorist command, is responsible for community engagement with the river community, and provides the line access and diving specialist teams to the rest of the MPS. The unit will be increasingly challenged to respond to demand from as far west as Teddington to the Queen Elizabeth II bridge in Essex.

39. The London Gateway container port also poses challenges to policing the river. Although the port will be situated outside of London, there will be a rise in river traffic. Currently, smaller crafts such as yachts and pleasure boats are not consistently registered or traceable. Essex and Kent constabularies do not have the resources to check every vessel launched from the continent and the appeal of using the Thames as a means of facilitating crime or acts of terror may increase over the next 5-10 years.

Recruitment

40. The MPS has made great strides in recruiting a diverse workforce. Recruitment from some BME communities is proportionate to their economically active populations; indeed for some roles (e.g. police community support officers) the overall BME strength broadly reflects the BME economically active population. The Service has recognised the challenge around BME promotion and progression. However, the MPS will continue to be challenged to reflect London’s diverse communities. The exceptionally low turnover amongst MPS staff, particularly police officers, places a significant constraint on the ability through recruitment to expedite the increase in BME representation. Nevertheless, HR is making the most of every opportunity to increase BME representation and has, for instance, started to develop a range of support interventions to meet the needs of a range of BME applicants in a bid to increase the application success rate. Security vetting requirements also constrain many newer communities from joining up.

Funding and resources

41. Funding will be restricted in the medium and long term as efficiencies are sought. The government has spent large sums on shoring up the financial sector. This is set against the context of a growing population and greater demand for policing in some parts of London. These considerations heighten the need for the MPS to optimise the use of all its resources (people, finance, property, ICT) in frontline service delivery.

42. The regeneration in east and southeast London will impact on borough resources and the demand for policing. The Olympic legacy, disproportionate changes in resident populations, and changes to commuting patterns present risks to service delivery across these boroughs. This in turn presents a risk to user satisfaction performance. The MPS and MPA will need to consider the impact of these changes to borough resources in the coming years.

An efficient estate

43. The MPS estate is largely borough-based. The changes to London and the increased transience of communities suggest that there may be value in adopting a cross-borough or even cross-police service approach for some functions. This would involve a change in mindset, both within the MPS and externally, from one where boroughs/business groups ‘own’ their properties to one of corporate landlord and borough/service tenants.

44. The government localism agenda and recession present financial challenges to modernising the estate. The MPS has suffered reduced receipts from redundant buildings. A larger estate that provides a presence in local communities (under Safer Neighbourhoods or the Presence programme) will be more complex and expensive to run. Technology changes imply the need for ‘hi-tech’ buildings capable of supporting enhanced ICT infrastructures that again are expensive to fund. Specialist services, such as marine policing, have specific requirements for effectiveness and security that have significant costs. A lack of funding also risks increasing non-compliance with the government environmental and emissions ambitions for the overall police estate.

45. Community involvement in the development of the estate presents both risks and opportunities. Historically, the influence of Londoners has depended on how well they are able to lobby and there is a risk that modernisation is skewed or delayed if the MPS cannot communicate the need for change. However, if the MPS can engage effectively with local communities, it can position new properties in the optimum locations whilst still delivering more efficient services.

Realising the potential of new technology

46. The introduction of biometric information presents both a risk and opportunity. This new technology could aid policing by helping to identify people quickly and efficiently, reducing bureaucracy and speeding up routine policing processes. However, there will be cost implications in terms of new equipment and training. The MPS will need funding to benefit from biometrics.

47. More generally, the MPS will need to be one step ahead of criminals in its use of technology. Some organised criminals use the latest technology to avoid detection by police and employ counter-surveillance measures. If the MPS is to continue its success in disrupting criminal networks, then it will need cutting edge covert equipment.

48. The MPS already makes use of existing technology in crime reduction and detection. A key technology is CCTV. The use of surveillance technology has come under scrutiny recently (Select Committee paper: Surveillance, citizens and the state, House of Lords 2008) where research indicates that the use of surveillance and retention of data on a massive scale is eroding the trust between the public and authorities. A key implication from this trend is the need for police to demonstrate the value and impact on crime of surveillance and CCTV, particularly in response to any resistance to expanding its use and coverage.

Partnership

49. The challenges outlined in this report are not unique to the MPS, nor can they be resolved solely by it. Legislation and government policy are pressing for greater partnership working, but the size of the challenges demand that this approach evolve to meaningful long term planning and information sharing.

50. The recession poses a risk to effective partnership and preventative work across London. Local authorities and other partner agencies are affected by the same tight financial landscape as the MPS. Local authorities are looking to offload costs and are experiencing an uptake in their services. Council income from services they charge for is also projected to fall significantly. The implication for the MPS is that local authorities may not have the funds to commit as many resources to crime and disorder problem-solving as the police would like. The MPS must be prepared for this in the medium and perhaps long term.

Informing the future of the MPS

51. The Strategy and Improvement Department (SID) within the Resources Directorate has corporate responsibility for horizon scanning, strategy development and business planning. The issues contained in this report are drawn from that horizon scanning work and feed into the strategy and planning processes.

52. SID produces an annual Corporate Strategic Assessment (CSA). The CSA summarises the challenges facing the MPS, identified through an iterative process of engagement with each MPS Business Group. The CSA forms a key bottom-up assessment to stimulate and inform Management Board debate leading to the development of the overarching MPS Corporate Strategy. The CSA is presented to Management Board 13 months ahead of the relevant financial year. For 2010/11, the report was presented in March 2009.

53. The risks identified by the analysis and horizon scan are then managed through the business planning process and corporate risk register. MPS business groups take account of the risks when planning their activities and in developing the 2010-13 Policing London Business Plan and Budget.

54. The MPA have developed the Met Forward vision for policing. This report looks ahead to the medium term and sets out a clear signal as to how the MPA want the MPS to develop and perform. Met Forward is a holistic vision that incorporates crime, safety, partnership, efficiency and public engagement. All of these areas are impacted by the changes to London and society summarised in this report.

55. This work also forms a link between the corporate centre of the MPS and the national picture. The National Police Improvement Agency (NPIA) has just begun futures work. The MPS will be linked into NPIA projects as stakeholders with the intention of working in partnership.

56. The MPS recognises that there is a need to mature the horizon scanning process to enhance our understanding, risk management and scenario planning of emerging issues.

C. Legal implications

MPS Business Groups take account of risks, including the risk of legal challenge when planning their activities. There is a need to ensure: -
a. changes introduced by the Green Paper are properly considered and implemented;
b. careful consideration and training is given in relation to legislation extending police powers to intercept communications;
c. surveillance or monitoring of far right extremist organisations is based upon reliable intelligence and is necessary and proportionate;
d. that the sharing of information between stakeholders to combat e-crime is lawful and complies with the Data Protection Act;
e. ethnic minority recruitment continues to comply with legal restrictions/limitations on positive action;
f. when working in partnership that the sharing of information is lawful and complies with the Data Protection Act.

D. Race and equality impact

The content of this report goes to the very heart of race and equality issues facing London and the MPS. As London grows and becomes more diverse, the risks and opportunities highlighted in this report are concerned with how the MPS will manage the impact across all communities and how it will provide a high quality service to all Londoners.

E. Financial implications

1. There are no direct financial implications arising from this report. The financial implications of managing risks and challenges identified in this assessment will be reflected in the development of the 2010-13 Policing London Business Plan and Budget.

2. The current budget has not been set in the context of the expansion in population and service users in London. London is facing the prospect of a city that is growing faster than the budget awarded to its police service and the over financial outlook, as identified in the assessment will present the Service with significant challenges.

F. Background papers

None

G. Contact details

Report author: Richard Gittings, Resources Directorate, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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