Headline performance report 9 months to December 2009

Report: 5
Date: 4 February 2010
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This report provides an overview of progress against targets set for Critical Performance Areas and other corporate measures featured in the Policing London Business Plan 2009–12.

A. Recommendation

That members note the latest performance against the Policing Plan and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an update on progress against our key areas of performance. The MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2009-12 highlights how we will deliver the two key outcomes of safety and public confidence (along with ensuring that we do so efficiently and with a clear focus on improvement). Our Policing Plan, underpinned by the 5Ps, has been developed to sustain the crime reduction that has been achieved over the last ten years and, at the same time, increase public trust and confidence in the MPS.

2. Our aim is to focus discussion on areas we are looking to improve. The following paragraphs report performance by exception against those indicators where there is greatest need for action.

Report structure

3. The report comprises two main sections:

• 'Critical Performance Areas' (CPAs) - the corporate ‘critical few’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1).
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-CPA corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2).

4. This report provides data for the financial year to date (FYTD) from April 2009 to December 2009 compared to the same nine months last year unless otherwise stated. Performance against the 2009/10 targets is assessed using a red, amber or green traffic light.

• ‘Green’ status indicates performance on or above target.
• ‘Amber’ status indicates performance marginally below target.
• ‘Red’ status indicates exceptions where performance is well below target and appears at risk unless remedial action is taken.

While the bulk of the document is focussed on the CPAs, there is also brief commentary on the more significant instances where performance in CMs is not achieving the target.

Current performance focus

Confidence in local policing

No new results

User Satisfaction

5. User satisfaction (victims of violent crime, burglary, vehicle crime and road accidents) with the service provided by the police stands at 77.8% for the FYTD missing the 80% target. However the 79.1% satisfaction rate for quarter 3 (Oct -Dec ’09) is encouraging because it is the best quarterly performance for over 3 years. The satisfaction rates for residential burglary victims for quarters 2 and 3 - 84.6% and 84.7% respectively - were also the best figures since quarter 2 of 2006/07.

Comparison of satisfaction of white and BME victims with respect to overall service

6. The gap for the satisfaction of white and BME victim is now 4.8% pts for the FYTD but it still SHORT of where we want to be at 3.8%... It is an improvement on the 5.4% pts figure for the first two quarters of 2009/10 (April-Sept’09). The improvement is due to the narrowing of the gap to 3% pts gap for the third quarter. That gap sends a mixed message because the two major factors behind it were a decrease in the satisfaction of white victims of racially motivated crime and an increase in the satisfaction of BME victims of violent crime.

A report on this topic is scheduled to go to this committee’s March meeting.

People agree that the police would treat them with respect

7. This CPA is derived from the MPS’s survey of the public in London (PAS). Performance has been at a similar level for the last 3 quarters at 77-78%. The 80% target is unlikely to be met for 2009/10.

Most serious violence (MSV)

8. While not hitting the target, MSV is now showing a decrease of 37 offences (0.4%) with December having the fewest offences (738) since records for this crime category began in April 2008. This may be partly due to the time of the year, as the second best month was December 2008. In order to achieve the 4.3% reduction target the average number of offences over the next 3 months has to be below 820. The December total was well below that but the monthly average for the FYTD before December 2009 was 995.

9. The combined measure of MSV and Assault with Injury (AWI) has increased by 369 offences (0.7%) over the same period. December was also the best month for this category. While AWI is showing an increase of 0.9%, December was tied for being the best month since April 2008.

10. Operation Winter Nights was launched to address the likely increase in violence from mid-November through the festive period. Enhanced deployments were made on each Friday and Saturday night across all Boroughs during the period. The operation involved a range of tactics using Borough officers supported by the Transport Command and the Clubs and Vice Unit. The operation benefited from significant and sustained deployments of local MSC officers (Specials) together with those from the central MSC Operational Support Unit. Some 485 arrests were made for a variety of offences, including 20 for carrying and using knives. Over 4,000 people were searched and visits made to over 2,000 licensed premises to ensure compliance with licence conditions.

MSV reduced by 11% (175 offences) between 9 November 2009 and 3 January 2010 compared with same period last year.

11. There have been 27(23%) fewer homicides, a component of MSV, over the FYTD. The FYTD has the fewest homicides since at least 1998.

12. While there were 140 fewer serious youth violence victims (2.7%) over this FYTD, that reduction is shy of the 4.7% target.

13. As mentioned previously the Operation Blunt 2 Task Force is supporting boroughs to combat serious youth violence across London including that involving knives and other lethal weapons.

14. Operation Farandine was launched by the Southwark Gangs, Drugs and Firearms team to combat serious violence and criminal networks on estates in Southwark. The team concentrated on disrupting the drug supply networks that were at the centre of criminality on the estates. They gathered evidence over many months this year and with support from the TSG searched over 25 properties in November.

As a result 30 people were arrested. Of these, 23 were remanded in custody and charged with 187 offences, mainly for the supply of Class A drugs, while 5 others were bailed to return pending police enquiries. 4 supply networks dealing in Class A drugs have been put out of business and two properties used for drug supply have been returned to the local authority.

15. Knife crime has declined by 310 offences but that 3.3% decrease is not enough to attain the target of a 5.6% reduction. The last 4 months in total are showing a decrease of 0.6% compared to the same period last year, so the target may be quite challenging for 2009/10. The average monthly figure for the next three months must be fewer than 806 to meet the target compared to the monthly average of 1,025 offences for the FYTD.

Homicides from sharp objects have declined by 18 (59 to 41).

Serious Acquisitive Crime

16. Serious acquisitive crime (residential burglary, robbery and motor vehicle crime) is down by 5,122 offences / 3.4% and so meeting the 2% reduction target. While there have been 2,909 more residential burglaries this FYTD (6.8%), December was 11% lower than last December making it the first month this FYTD lower than the corresponding month last year.

Below is the table that has appeared in previous reports showing this year’s figure in the context of the last few years. 2009/10 may be higher than the last 3 FYTDs but it is lower than 2005/06 to 2003/04.

The 45,550 residential burglaries for the FYTD 09/10 are almost 500 fewer than the average (46,030) for the last seven years and over 5,000 less than the number for 2003/04.

17. The 2 Bumblebee Taskforces have been deployed at Redbridge since 14th December 2009 and at Bromley since 4th January 2010. So far those two deployments have resulted in 236 arrests which have lead to 91 charges and 64 people still under investigation. 26 of the arrests and 13 of the charges were for burglary while a number of the other arrests and charges were of suspected burglars in order to disrupt their activities.

18. Motor vehicle crime remains on a downward trend with 8,202 fewer offences (9.9%) and is still at its lowest level for this period since at least 1998/99. December and November are the two months with the fewest vehicles stolen since that year and December also had the lowest monthly figure for theft from a vehicle.

19. Robbery is up but only by 171 offences (0.7%). Leaving aside November (significantly lower than November ’08) and May (significantly higher than May ’08), the monthly figures for robbery have been more or less the same for both years.

Serious sexual offences sanction detection rate

20. The sanction detection rate (SD) for serious sexual offences is 23.4%, against a target of 31% for 2009/10. December had the fewest rapes reported since May 2009. This mirrored the seasonal reduction in reporting the previous year but the level of reporting was still higher than during December 2008. In the 2009/10 FYTD to December there have been 474 more rapes reported than in 2008/09.

21. Previous reports to the Committee have outlined the complex interweave of factors - changes in recording practices, victims possibly being more prepared to come forward and centralised investigation - that have resulted in 474 more recorded rapes this year and a declining SD rate. A report is scheduled to go to the 4 March meeting of this committee on the extent to which the rise in rape is due to more/better reporting.

22. It is important to note that SCD 2 is concentrating on maximizing the number of serious sexual offence cases that result in charges and that then go on to reach trial. In pursuit of that objective a CPS central charging team is expected to start work in February 2010.

23. The September meeting requested the conviction rate for serious sexual offences and the best available proxy is the offences brought to justice (OBTJ) rate provided by the Home Office. There has been no update to the previously reported figure 24.9% for the year to June 2009 with the MPS fourth in its MSF group.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

24. Because there were no intakes of recruits in December and January, the proportion of BME police officer recruits is unchanged since November when it was 14.3%. A challenging target of 20% for 2009/10 was set as part of the MPS’s goal to raise the percentage of officers from a BME background to 10%.

25. As stated in previous reports, because fewer officers than originally forecast were leaving the service it was decided to reduce the number of police officer recruits by 400. That would enable the MPS to stay within its set police officer number. The strategic impact of the reduced attrition is:

Restriction on the ability to improve the diversity of police officers

Retention of experienced and skilled police officers

26. Last month’s report mentioned that BME representation on intakes of recruits is likely to reach 25.4% for the second half of 2009/10. The recruits for February and March intakes have now been warned of their starting date. The overall performance for 2009/10 will be 16.6% (minimum) as previously projected. This is an improvement on last years 16.2%.

Gun crime

27. There have been 280 more gun crimes (12.6%) this FYTD. December (252 offences) and November (237 offences) were well below the average of 299 offences for the previous 5 months (June-Oct) and in line with the corresponding months for 2008/09. This may suggest that gun crime is now going in the right direction.

That rise includes 130 more Trident offences (99%). The 14 offences in December were the smallest monthly total since November 2008 when there were also 14, and are in line with the monthly average for 2008/09 of 15.2. Trident gun crime has fallen for 5 consecutive months.

There has been two fewer deaths from shooting for the nine months 0f 2009/10 compared to the same period last year.

28. The current definition of gun crime was only introduced by the Home Office at the start of 2008/09. The table below uses a proxy definition of gun crime to compare gun crime over the last 6 years. Even though 2009/10 has just over 400 more gun crimes than 2008/09, it is the second lowest FYTD total for the last 6 years.

09/10 08/09 07/08 06/07 05/06 04/05
Proxy Gun Crime 1,957 1,554 2,286 2,335 2,757 2,590

Assets recovered

29. The average value of assets recovered April - December 2009 was £3.1m against the target monthly average of £3.75m. However there is considerable monthly variation - with the range so far this year £1.2m (December 2009) to £5.4m. New performance measures will be developed for 2010/11.

30. As mentioned in the previous report the Home Office have deferred their decision on the London Criminal Justice Board request for funds to pay for more MPS proceeds of crime (POCA) investigations for 2009/10 until at least after the general election and so 31 POCA financial investigator posts in TP will be redeployed.

Class A drug trafficking SDs

31. It is anticipated that the targets for total Class A trafficking SDs and those for cocaine will not be met. Even though December was the best month since August it was still just below the target (208 vs 210). The average for the last 4 months has been 178 SDs vs a target of 210 for all SDs.

CM Targets

32. Below are brief comments on the more significant instances where CM targets are not being attained:

1. CM 3 (time to investigate public complaints) - Complaints have risen substantially since 2007/08 - 14% in the 12 months to Nov’09 with no corresponding increase in DPS resources. The boroughs are dealing with more of the complaints but that activity is likely to compete with crime priorities for resources. DPS are setting up a Performance Management Framework to enable DPS to engage with units having difficulties in meeting the 64 day target
2. CM 5 (people who have heard of their SNT) - A range of SNT communication activities are being co-ordinated by the central SN media and communications team, DPA, TP press office and boroughs.
3. CM 9 (victims updated) - The 100% target represents the stretching ambition documented in the Policing Pledge. Performance has improved by 29% points since Apr-08 (64%).
4. CM 20 (asset seizure cases) - Performance for 2008/09 was higher than anticipated and so 10% increase target is a greater challenge than originally expected. Since 2006/07 there has been a large increase in new cases. Cases take around 3 years to conclude with the result that there is a levelling off of new cases that can be undertaken within current resources.
5. CM 30 (PURE) - "2" is defined as 'adequate' but the Audit Commission has said that the 2008/09 assessment was much harder than previously since organisations had to show improved performance to maintain current scores. Consequently the MPA/MPS' s 2 represents a real improvement. It also stated that the national trend for PURE was downward.
6. CMs 34 -37 - (sickness for officers, staff, PCSOs and traffic wardens)
   1. Ongoing monitoring of hot spotting of problem areas and cases.
   2. Operation Clear-Up to clear long-term cases from system.
   3. HR working with TOCU to manage down corporately impacting on traffic warden and PCSO sickness levels within the unit.
   4. Implementation of 5-point Health and Well Being promotion by April 2010.
   5. Renewed focus on logistical services with specific emphasis on catering.

C. Race and equality impact

Implications of performance against individual targets relating to race and equality issues are considered in in-depth performance reports throughout the year. This report notes exceptions in strategic disproportionality indicators where applicable.

D. Financial implications

1. All costs associated with the activities outlined above are covered within existing budgets.

E. Legal implications

1. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

2. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

3. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

4. The Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

F. Background papers

• DPA Business Group Business Plan 2009/10
• MPA scrutiny of MPS media and communications - April 2007

G. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, MPS Strategy and Improvement Department, MPS.

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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