Headline performance report

Report: 7
Date: 1 July 2010
By: Chief Executive

Summary

This paper reports on performance of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and other corporate measures against their (2010/11) targets as outlined in the Policing London Business Plan 2010–13 for the first two months of 2010/11.

A. Recommendation

That

1. Members note the 2010/11 performance of indicators shown in the Policing Plan against their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an overview of how the MPS is performing in the financial year 2010/11 to date (May 2010/FYTD) against the targets set for 2010/11 in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2010 -13. The Plan’s primary goals are to reduce crime and increase public confidence in the MPS.

The other comparisons in the report are of the FYTD compared to the same period in 2009/10 unless otherwise stated.

Report structure

2. The body of the report looks at the KPIs concentrating on performance against targets and against performance for the same period last year.

It has 2 appendices:

• 'Key Performance Indicators' (KPIs) - the corporate ‘key’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1).
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-KPI corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2).

Please note that 2010/11 data for some of the KPIs and CMs are not yet available.

The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

Red - performance off target and below last year

Amber - performance off target but better than same time last year

Green - performance is on or better than target.

It is important to bear in mind when looking at how far a KPI may be from its target whether good or bad, that the data covers only two months of the year.

Current performance focus

Summary

Robbery continues to be a challenge with a 6% increase, though personal robbery does tend to go up in May. Robbery is also the major driver of the rise in knife and gun crime both of which are showing small increases. While there are more homicides this year, there are fewer than in 2008/09.

Operation Blunt 2 (which includes Operation Vinco) continues to be the focus of the MPS efforts to combat violent crime.

The SD rates for the robbery, MV crime and residential burglary, racist and homophobic crime are below their targets.

On a positive note, there are fewer residential burglaries and thefts of motor vehicles. The SD rate for MSV is almost on target. MSV has fallen substantially and it may be revealing to see if it continues into June a traditionally high month for violent crime.

While the Olympic milestones target may not appear to be being met, this is a question of challenges with the project management measurement methodology and does not mean that the projects will not deliver as intended.

There are potential challenges in the near future that could affect crime levels. These include: the World Cup and the potential for violence due to the related heavy drinking particularly if England loses late in the tournament. There is a general tendency for violence to be high in June and July and that is especially true of racist and homophobic crime.

Confidence in local policing, User Satisfaction and Satisfaction of white & BME victims with the overall service provided
3. There is no new information on these measures because they are quarterly surveys. New data is not expected before July.

Serious Acquisitive Crime

4. Serious acquisitive crime (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary) is down by 752 offences / -2.3% for the first two months of 2010/11 against a target of –3.2%. The sanction detection rate of 8.1% is significantly below the target of 12.2% but on a par with the same time last year when it was 8.2%.

5. The number of robberies for the FYTD is up by 361 offences (+6.1%) compared to the same period last year and the sanction detection rate is 15.0%. Both are off their respective targets of -3% and 19%. The number of robberies where a gun was involved rose by +7.3% but they only account for around 4% of robberies. Robberies with a knife increased by +12% and they account for around a fifth of all robberies.

6. The strategic approach continues to be an intelligence-led focus upon geographic crime hotspot areas and those suspects who represent the highest risk of offending. Blunt 2 has included robbery in its focus and developed Operation Vinco. Op Vinco provides additional unmarked Q cars in 13 Blunt Boroughs to detect and reduce robbery and consequently knife crime.

7. There were almost 900 (887/-9.2%) fewer residential burglaries for the FYTD compared to last year hitting the target of –4.0%. The sanction detection rate is substantially up on last year (12.2% vs 9.1%) but it is still below the target of 16%.

8. There are 226 fewer motor vehicle (MV) crime offences (-1.3%) this FYTD. The sanction detection rate is below that of last year (3.5% vs 5.8%) and the 2010/11 target of 7.5%.

MV crime is broken down as follows:

• There have been over 200 (214 / -4.5%) fewer vehicles stolen this year compared to last year (April – May 2009). That is on the right side of the 2% reduction target.
• There have been slightly fewer thefts from an MV (12 / -0.1%) compared to the same period a year ago. The reduction is insufficient to meet the 3.0% reduction target.

Most serious violence (MSV)

9. This FYTD has 523 (-23%) fewer MSV crimes, continuing the big decline (-22%) shown in April. This more than meets the -4.0% reduction target. While MSV with a gun is practically unchanged since last year (85 VS 86 crimes), MSV where a knife was involved declined by 97 offences or -15.5%.

10. The sanction detection (SD) rate for the FYTD is 34.6% just below the 35% target but above the 28.1% rate for the same period last year. The combined measure of MSV and Assault with Injury (AWI) is also down by 792 (-6.1%) crimes over 2009/10.

Knife crime

11. So far this FYTD there have been 101 more knife crimes. That equates to +4.6% against the -4% reduction target. As mentioned above robbery with a knife is the major driver of the increase in knife crime. The SD rate is 23.1% which is an improvement of almost 3 %pts on the 20.5% rate at this time last year.

There were 56 (-6.9%) fewer crimes where the knife was used to injure. However, death by sharp objects is up by 2 deaths (11 to 13 deaths) compared to last year and within those figures victims under 20 rose from 3 to 4 victims.

Knife crime tactics have centred upon homicide prevention particularly in the 13-19 age range focussing on assaults. Blunt 2 has included robbery in its focus and note (6) above comments on Operation Vinco.

Gun crime

12. 2010/11 FYTD has had 16 more gun crimes than 2009/10. That equates to a +3% increase against a reduction target of -5.0%. Robbery with a gun is responsible for that modest increase. The SD rate of 28.3% is 5%pts up on last year when it was 23%. A firearm has been discharged 3 (+2.5%) more times this FYTD than last year. Eight people have died from shootings for 2010/11 vs. 2 for the same period last year. The number of those victims under 20 was 2 this year and none last year.

The MPS is making significant efforts to reduce gun crime in conjunction with the broader violence reduction agenda. Examples include;

• bespoke Trident plans with hot-spot boroughs;
• Verano tasking to maximise the use of central units;
• re-focussing of SCD7 effort against firearms supply;
• proactive use of the firearms OCU (CO19) in hot-spot areas; exploiting NaBIS (the national system of tracking guns that come to the attention of the police) to maximise forensic intelligence opportunities;
• engaging with ACPO to impact on the supply of firearms and legislative changes and
• utilising the media to increase public understanding, provide reassurance, and encourage information.

Reported hate crimes

13. Domestic violence offences have declined by 135 (-1.5%) over last year. The SD rate at 43% is below the target of 47% while the arrest rate of 75% is closer to its target of 77% though still below it.

14. The SD rate for racist and religious crimes is 38.3% for the FYTD and on a par with last year’s performance of 38.5%. but below the 45% target The SD rate for homophobic crime is 29.5%, also down on last year’s rate of 36.8% and also short of the 45% target. Homophobic crime is subject to greater fluctuations than other crime types because of the relatively small numbers involved. Both of these crime types are well below last year with 182 (-10.3%) fewer reported racist and religious crime and 48 (-18.6%) fewer reported homophobic crime. The emphasis on ‘reported’ crime in this section is in recognition of the under-reporting of hate crime

People killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions

15. There were on average 264 people killed or seriously injured in traffic accidents a month in the period April’09 to Jan ’10. While the MPS would like to reduce that figure as much as possible, it is below the target figure for 2010/11 and so indicative of improvement in this area. There is normally a lag of at least 3 months for these figures.

Homicide

16. There have been 7 more homicides this FYTD compared to last year. 2009/10 had the lowest number of homicides in the MPS since 1998/99. 2010/11 has had 4 fewer homicides than 2008/09 FYTD which had the second fewest homicides.

The detection rate is 100% against the year-end target of 85%. This indicator can show results of over 100% because SD rates are calculated by taking the SDs in the period as a % of the offences in the period. Thus the SDs in the period may not be for the offences in the period due to the length of homicide investigations

There were 6 homicides where the victims were aged 1 to 19 years compared to only 3 last year but 7 in 2008/09.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

17. 11% of the police officer recruits have been BMEs against a target of 20%. This has resulted from having to clear a back-log of PCSOs who had been due to be appointed in 2009/10. Their starting dates were put back to May and June 2010 as a result of the reduced attrition and having to remain within budget. The diversity of this group does not meet the target but they must be appointed to fulfill our commitments to this group of internal employees.

Given the current economic climate and a significant fall in numbers of officers leaving the Service, there are more candidates than projected vacancies for police officers. No new applications have been accepted for some time and the MPS is now advising those in the system (many of whom have passed all assessments though not received formal offer) that there is no immediate prospect of admission into police officer training. A strategy has been devised to communicate the position to the 1800 applicants affected.
It is likely that a new process where the main pathway to becoming a police officer will be through becoming a special constable will be implemented later this year.

As agreed, the MPS may come back to the MPA to discuss amending the 2010/11 target for this indicator.

% Milestones for the Olympics Met

18. These milestones come under the Olympic Safety & Security Plan which is lead by the Home Office. The MPS is working with those responsible for the Plan to improve its monitoring arrangements. There are difficulties with achieving the targets, but they are mainly a reflection of project management issues, such as delays in responses from delivery partners and delays in getting necessary approvals due to the recent election. These problems should not significantly affect the timely completion of the projects. The policing aspects are on track to fulfill their requirements.

C. Race and equality impact

The report contains sections that deal with targets for solving hate crime and whether the MPS is meeting those targets. It also has a section on the satisfaction of white & BME users of the police service though there is no new data for this report. Finally the report has an indicator on the % of officer recruits who are BMEs which directly addresses the question making MPS officers more representative of the community they serve.

D. Financial implications

1. In June 2010 the Government announced an ‘in year’ reduction in policing grant. The current impact on the MPA/MPS is £30m general expenditure and £5m CT expenditure. The MPS is currently developing a package of proposals to deal with this reduced funding which is in addition to the £100m reductions already built into the 2010/11 budget. Whilst every effort is being made to minimise the impact of these budget reductions, they may have an adverse impact on performance.

2. It should also be noted that the Service may face further reductions as the impact of in year reductions on partner organisations becomes clearer.

E. Legal implications

1. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

2. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

3. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

4. Performance Board may endorse the recommendations set out this report, as it has delegated responsibility for managing performance at the corporate level across the MPS. Performance Board must also sign-off corporate performance reports or key statements to the MPA and any external bodies relating to performance.

5. The Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

F. Background papers

None

G. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, MPS Strategy and Improvement Department, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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