Headline performance report for 2011/12

Report: 6
Date: 8 December 2011
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This paper describes current performance in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and in other corporate measures.

A. Recommendation

That Members

1. note the performance in the indicators compared with their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes further.

B. Supporting information

1. This document reports on MPS performance against the 2011/12 KPIs and their targets as set out in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2011-14. The Plan sets targets not only for 2011/12 but also for the coming three years to encourage planning over the long term as well as the short term in the current difficult financial environment.

Report Structure

2. The portfolios only include crimes where there is a victim as opposed to state based crimes that are discovered as a result of police action to enforce the law or prevent disorder - for example drug and public order offences.

3. The body of the report focuses on how the KPIs are performing against targets, the current trend and other relevant factors. Appendix 1 lists the KPIs, their targets and current and past performance.

4. The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

Red - performance off target and worse than at the same time last year
Amber - performance off target but better than at the same time last year
Green - performance is on or better than target.

5. Percentage figures for crime trends are rounded to the nearest ‘whole’ number if over 20% i.e. 25% not 24.7% or 25.2%, unless a decimal place is necessary to support the point being made.

6. Unless otherwise stated comparisons over time below are between the seven months of the financial year 2011/12 (April to October 2011) and the equivalent period in 2010. “Financial year to date” (FYTD) covers that period.

Serious Disorder in August

7. Last month’s report set out the initial findings and learning of the strategic review of Operation Kirkin that is being overseen by AC Lynne Owens. The work of the Review Team continues. The interim report is scheduled to be with the MPA in late November and the final report in late December.

8. The MPS is continuing its efforts through Operation Withern to bring people who engaged in criminal activity in the disorder in early August to justice. Over 3,000 people have been arrested - 3,096 as at 17 November. As at that date 1,931 people had been charged including 10 for arson, 388 for assault and other violent acts, 31 for robbery and 874 for burglary, the usual charge for looting.

HMIC Value for Money (VfM) Profiles

9. As mentioned in last month’s report, HMIC issued electronically its VfM Profiles which are not public facing. The Profiles contain force level comparisons for a wide range of crime, enforcement, finance and workforce graphs and statistics that compare all forces and most similar force groups.

10. In general the MPS had high levels of crime, and low sanction detection rates and was expensive compared to the other forces including those most similar to it, in England & Wales. The high expenditure is driven in part by the large number of officers needed to deal with the high levels of crime, and the expenses of operating in London. The high crime rate and low sanction detection rates have been a feature of such comparisons for some time.

11. The high demand for police services was illustrated by the MPS having the third most 999 calls per 1,000 residents. The MPS had the 12th most calls per staff member in a central communications unit which is indicative of the relative productivity of the MPS’s Central Communications Command.

12. The number of officers per capita within the MPS, carrying out these functions was disproportionate against the national median in the areas of central communications units, criminal justice, intelligence analysis, HR and admin support.

13. The Profiles were used to support the discussions at the Management Board away day in November. They will inform further benchmarking and analysis so the MPS can establish potential organisation changes needed to improve performance, but also potential efficiencies to support the 2013/14 budget gap.

The report below will refer to the comparisons in the Profiles below where appropriate. Comparisons in the profiles generally are based on the relevant information for the financial year 2010/11.

Summary Of Current Performance

14. The main points are;

• Violence Portfolio - there were 7,927 (-8.8%) fewer offences which includes:
  • 3,785 (-9.1%) fewer offences where violent assaults (VWI) took place.
  • 67 homicides this year - 5 fewer than for the first 7 months of last year.
• Property portfolio - the portfolio is 1.1% / 3,441offences above the level last year and that covers.
  • 3,101 (+15.4%) more robberies
  • 2,752 offences (+5.4%) more burglaries,
  • 647 (-1.1%) fewer vehicle crimes
• There were 102 (-22.5%) fewer crimes where a firearm was discharged but there were 25 (1.0%) more crimes where a knife was used to injure.
• The three types of hate crime remained below the levels of 2010/11 with 5.0% fewer domestic violence offences, a 16.6% drop in racist and religious crime and a decline of 14.6% in homophobic crime.

Violence Portfolio

15. In the first seven months of 2011/12 there were 7,927 (-8.8%) fewer crimes in the portfolio compared to last year. That more than meets the 2% reduction target for 2011/12. The sanction detection (SD) rate for the portfolio continues to be close to last year at 27.4% vs. 28.0% for the same months of 2010/11.

16. There were 67 homicide victims while there were 72 and 70 for the period in 2010 and 2009 respectively. For this financial year 8 persons aged 1-19 have died as a result of a homicide. Last year (FYTD) the figure at this point in the financial year was 14 and in 2009/10 there were 7 young homicide victims in the period. Knives were used in 5 of the homicides with young victims one less than last year and one more than the year before. Only 1 of the homicides with a young victim this year has been due to shooting.

17. 2011/12 FYTD has had 3,785 (-9.1%) fewer Violence With Injury (VWIs). The VWI SD rate of 31.2% is 1% point below the rate of 32.2% for last year at this time.

18. Profiles

• highest level of violence against the person (VAP) - the closest category to the Violence Portfolio.
• fourth lowest SD rate for VAP
• second highest level of VWI
• fourth lowest SD rate for VWI

19. Trends

• Offences in the portfolio as a whole are at their lowest level since 2007 when comparative data became available. This year FYTD is 6% below the highest year (2009/10) FYTD for the last five years.
• VWI is at its lowest level for the last five years - 15% below its high point in 2007/08 FYTD
• The VWI SD rate for the last 4 years has been fairly constant between 31.5% and 32.2% - 2011/12 has the second highest rate.

Reported Hate Crime

20. Total reported hate crime offences have also continued to be below last year’s figures. Domestic violence has fallen by 1,469 (-5.0%) offences. Racist and religious crime has fallen by just under 1,000 offences (952/16.6%). There have been 131 fewer homophobic crimes representing a decrease of 14.6%.

Weapon Crime

21. There have been 249 (14.5%) fewer gun crimes this year. The most serious gun crime - offences where a firearm was discharged - have decreased by 102 (22.5%) below last year to 352.

22. This success is the result of sticking to the strategy and plans that have been agreed and monitored through the Strategic Gun Crime Meeting and the Gun Crime Delivery Meeting. The focus is on those aspects of gun crime which we can influence namely:

• Targeting the most dangerous individuals
• Targeting the most dangerous locations (and times).
• Conducting effective investigations (including maximising the use of forensic ballistic opportunities)
• Restricting the supply of, and access to, illegal weapons

23. The success is also the result of excellent work by and between the boroughs and the specialist central units. This has enhanced our ability to target and recover weapons, particularly the most dangerous ones. In 2010/11, almost 500 live weapons came into the hands of police. This financial year's confirmed recovery figures have exceeded 200 and are likely to be more once forensic examination is complete. Therefore, the MPS is well on the way to matching those levels in 2011/12. There is no doubt that this in turn has contributed to the reduction in the availability of weapons and ammunition and consequently to the fall in gun crime.

24. Mandatory sentences for gun possession and for gun enabled murder and the success of our investigations have also had an impact. They make it risky for criminals who use guns to be in possession of their weapons and this in turn makes them alter the way in which they operate. These changes in their behaviour make them more susceptible to our covert proactive operations.

25. There have been 12 homicides due to firearms this year which we are striving to reduce as much as possible. The corresponding figures for last year and the year before were 19 and 11.

26. This year there have been 1,125 (15.2%) more offences using knives for the period driven by the increase in knife personal robbery of 1,237 (32%) offences. Knife personal robbery accounts for about two thirds of knife crime. Knife crime excluding personal robbery is 3.2% below last year’s level with 112 fewer crimes.

27. However for the first time this year crimes where a knife/sharp object was used to injure is showing an increase for the FYTD with 25 (1.0%) more of these serious crimes than in the first seven months of 2010/11. Again this is driven by personal robbery where there have been 71 (20%) more crimes where a knife has been used to injure for a total of 426. These serious crimes only account for about 8% of knife personal robbery and 2% of all personal robbery.

28. In the first seven months of 2011/12 32 people were killed by knives/sharp objects. This is slightly below the 34 victims in both 2010/11 and 2009/10 by this point in the year. The six years before 2009/10 each had 50 or more homicides with knives for the equivalent months.

The Number Of Sanction Detections (SDs) For Rape

29. There have been 305 SDs for rape this year which is 61 (-16.7%) below the number at this point in 2010/11 and missing the target of a 4% increase on last year. There have been 168 more recorded rapes this year 168 (9.0%) than last year for the period when there were 1865.

30. The November meeting received a report on rape SDs. The report stated that the following action is being taken:

• MPS/CPS case tracking and failed case reviews to be undertaken from November 2011.
• Management information support to be provided to the MPS’s unit that deals with rape cases (SCD2) to help identify and monitor more closely those activities which deliver a broader range of outcomes, in addition to sanctioned detections.
• Review by Homicide Command of unsolved SCD2 Rapes reported in September 2011 to identify issues and help inform future performance regime.

Operation Reclaim

31. Officers from across the MPS and the City of London Police targeted uninsured drivers in a co-coordinated series of operations across the capital in the second day of action under Operation Reclaim. In that second day of action 400 vehicles were seized and 71 people were arrested for a variety of offences including handling stolen goods, possession of offensive weapons [including a stun gun], drugs possession and intent to supply and driving whilst disqualified. This brings the total number of vehicles seized over the two days of action to 958 and the total number of arrests to 147.

32. The follows a commitment by Commissioner Hogan-Howe to target criminals and disrupt their activities. Uninsured drivers are more likely to be involved in criminal activity, five times more likely to be involved in collisions and less likely to have vehicles in a road-worthy condition.

The Change In The Number Of People Killed Or Seriously Injured (KSIs) In Road Traffic Collisions

33. During the 12 months to July 2012, a monthly average of 206 people died or were seriously injured on the roads. The figures for the two preceding comparator years were 250 and 270 respectively. The 206 average was the lowest number of serious road casualties for the 12 months to July for the last ten years. It also means that the number of KSIs is currently 7% below the monthly target of 221. However, numbers do vary significantly from month to month and the second half of 2010/11 had low levels of KSIs, therefore the current position may change.

34. 88 people have died on the roads in the first seven months of 2011/12, 76 were killed on the roads for the same period in 2010/11 and 106 in 2009/10.

35. Enforcement has been an important factor in reducing road casualties. During 2011/12 FYTD 2,430 dangerous drivers have been disqualified which is 99 / 4% less than for the same period last year when 2,529 people were banned from driving Safety camera operations have resulted in a monthly average of 8,456 Notices of Intended Prosecution (NIPs) to be issued, in excess of the target figure of 8,333 and the 6,800 monthly average for the whole of 2010/11. However the positive outcome rate (depending on the severity of the offence - NIPs resulting in either attendance at a safety awareness course, payment of the fixed penalty or issue of a summons) is 63% - 2% points below the 65% target. Performance is anticipated to improve in the coming months because of new arrangements agreed with the Court Service.

Property Portfolio

36. The property portfolio covers most property crime including criminal damage, but excludes fraud and forgery because of national recording issues. During the period there have been 3,441 more offences, a rise of 1.1% which misses the 1% 2011/12 reduction target but is a noticeable improvement on the situation in August FYTD when the rise was 7,413 offences/3.3%. At 317,866 offences the portfolio is at its second highest level for the last five years but only 1.4% above the 313,402 in the lowest year FYTD (2008/09).

37. The property portfolio sanction detection rate has declined from 11.4% to 10.7%. This is principally because of declines in the use of cautions and fixed penalty notices for these crimes. Nevertheless 409 more people have been charged with offences in this portfolio offence - a rise of 2%.

38. The crime types in the portfolio that are lower than last year and their reductions are:

• 5,231/10.4% fewer criminal damage offences (with a victim),
• 963/2.2% fewer thefts from a motor vehicle,
• 2,055/8.3% fewer thefts from shops,
• 696/4.3% fewer bicycles stolen.

39. Residential burglary is up by 2,393 (7.5%). April and May this year contributed disproportionately to the increase because April and May 2010 had the lowest totals for their respective months. That said, 2011/12 has the second most of these offences in the last five years - 2009/10 had the most. Non residential burglary, while 1.9% above last year FYTD is at its second lowest level in the last five years.

40. For 2010/11 the Profiles show the MPS with the second highest residential burglary rate but the tenth lowest rate of non-domestic burglary. For all burglary the MPS had the sixth highest rate per capita in England and Wales but the other three forces in its Home Office group had higher total burglary rates.

41. Deployments and pro-active operations to address residential burglary have been enhanced through the use of search warrants on those premises suspected of being involving in handling stolen property. An MPS marketing campaign was launched on 31 October 2011 (Operation Bumblebee) to engage the public in efforts to heighten residential security as part of the overall response to the threat of residential burglary.

42. There have been 316 (1.9%) more motor vehicles stolen this year. However the trend is improving. The last three months have been below the corresponding month last year with the increase in the first 3 months of the year and in July. While the 16, 605 vehicles stolen is the third highest in the last five years it is also the third lowest in the last ten years and less than half of the 35,023 in 2002/03.

43. Theft from person is up by 3,424 offences (17.4%) and is at its highest level for the period since 2005 when there were 24,418 of these thefts. The rise has been spread across the FY with every month except August above the corresponding month last year.

44. Personal robberies have risen by 16.6% / 3,079 offences. Unlike the first 5 months of the 2011/12 with increases of at least 16% over the same month last year, the last two months with rises of 3% and 8% have been much closer to the figures for last year. The Profiles show the MPS with the highest rates per 1,000 residents for both personal and business robbery.

45. A major concern of the MPS has been personal robberies with knives/sharp objects and their trends and prevalence have been discussed above in paras 26 and 27.

46. As previously mentioned Operation Target addresses a range of crime and anti-social behaviour. When it commenced on 8 June it covered 76 wards but at the beginning of November it was expanded with the addition of 19 more wards because of their high levels of residential burglary. The operation further drives a range of activity to target enforcement against the most prolific and harmful offenders, notably those engaged in committing personal robbery and residential burglary.

47. As part of the response to personal robbery, Operation Protect has utilised Safer Neighbourhood Teams, Safer Schools Officers and Safer Transport Teams in deployments around schools and colleges, on transport routes and at transport hubs and town centres in the critical 3.00pm to 6.00pm period each weekday during term time. This operation, which commenced on 5 September 2011, has involved significant engagement with young people regarding crimes associated with the use of high-specification mobile phones. This includes the registration of phones on-line and the promotion of phone tracking apps to support the operational response and investigation of personal robbery and other violence directed towards school-aged children.

48. As stated in last month’s report deployments under Operation Autumn Nights commenced on 17 October 2011 and continued until 6 November 2011. Planning commenced during the summer and involved a range of tactics including significant work with young people and the retail sector to prevent the misuse of fireworks and other anti-social behaviour associated particularly with Halloween. All Safer Neighbourhood Teams were on duty across the highest risk dates, notably Halloween itself and the proceeding weekend, and Bonfire Night. The Safer Transport Command ran Operation Safebus as part of this initiative between 26 October 2011 and 6 November 2011. This deployed additional teams to those bus routes and transport hubs at greatest risk.

49. These operational responses (Protect and Autumn Nights) are focused upon the reduction of violence and robbery in public space. They include a range of tactics to address the threat and use of knives, including enhanced stop and search activity, ground sweeps, and efforts to enhance search regimes at late licensed premises and public events. MPS Volunteer cadets have again been deployed.

50. As part of a nationwide campaign against metal theft by ACPO, the MPS, through boroughs and central units, conducted a number of operations with partners against metal theft in the last week of October. 108 scrap metal premises were searched. In the course of those operations 18 people were arrested for dealing in stolen metal from residential premises or stealing copper cable, six scrap metal licenses were revoked, and more than 130 fixed penalty notices issued mainly for not having a waste carriage licence. Significant amounts of stolen metal were recovered including approximately 5 to 6 tonnes of BT copper cable, 3.4 tonnes of other copper cabling worth approximately £30,000. 20 tonnes of stolen copper, a ton of lead, a firearm and 8 stolen vehicles/machinery.

Operation Hawk

51. On 9 November the Commissioner announced a new initiative to enhance the operational activity of Safer Neighbourhood (SN) teams in local communities. Called Operation Hawk, the SN teams across the MPS took part in a concerted day of action on 24 November that was locally led, and based on local intelligence, concerns and priorities. It targeted those who commit crime and disorder through action such as executing warrants to search premises where there is suspected drug dealing, enforcement of Anti-Social Behaviour Order breaches and local crime issues.

52. In its very simplest form Operation Hawk is back to basics policing and will become normal day to day business where intelligence coming into the MPS, in its various forms, is turned around and quickly acted upon. SN teams will be at the forefront of its delivery taking the “we asked, you said and we did” approach.

53. A key element to the success of Operation Hawk will be the regular and timely provision of information to the community about police activity. That should drive public confidence and satisfaction with local policing. A full communications strategy is being developed to support this.

54. Operation Hawk compliments the Commissioners approach around Total Policing, e.g. ensuring that intelligence is acted upon at the earliest opportunity to support the all out war on crime.

Anti-social Behaviour (ASB) Incidents

55. As mentioned in last month’s report the new national definition of ASB, implemented in the MPS at the beginning of September, categorises its ASB into one of three groups:

• Personal - incidents which impact on an individual or group.
• Nuisance - incidents which affect the local community in general rather than to individual victims.
• Environmental - incidents with an impact on the general surroundings.

56. 2011/12 is a baseline year. October 2011 is the first full month for which we have figures under the new national classifications. There were 33,017 ASB incidents of which 8,772 were personal, 21,364 nuisance and 2,881 environmental.

57. At the October meeting of this committee, members received a report on the MPS results of the Home Office trials on forces’ management of ASB. The MPS has now set up a project team to roll out and implement good practice from the pilot within the key areas of identification of vulnerability, case management, effective call handling and effective partnership approaches to ASB

58. As of 1 November 2011 all the wards in the MPS have ASB set as a ward priority.

User Satisfaction & Satisfaction of White & BME Users With The Overall Service - data provided quarterly - no new data

People Who Think The Local Police Are Doing A Good Job

Data provided quarterly - no new data

London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games - Olympic Safety & Security Programme

59. This KPI looks at the status of the five Olympic Safety and Security Strategy Programmes and the three London venue areas against their objectives in the Strategy and has a target of amber/green. For October the situation is unchanged - four pan-Olympic programmes amber/green, and one amber/red and the London venue programmes amber.

60. The programme that is amber/red is the Prepare programme and this is because:

• The Air Security Workstream remains at amber/red pending Ministerial decisions on proposed response options. Assuming decisions are made, then the Workstream is expected to move to amber,
• The Maritime Security Workstream remains at amber/red pending Ministerial decisions regarding military support to the police-led security plans for the Thames and in Weymouth Harbour,
• Resources remains at amber/red because of uncertainty over London Organising Committee for the Olympic Games and Paralympic Games’ (LOCOG)’s venue security costs.

61. Dealing with the disorders in August provided valuable lessons for the command and control structures overseeing the Games and their resilience in responding to rapidly unfolding situations and on the resource requirements to deal with large scale incidents. We are working with partner agencies to refine our contingency planning to handle similar disturbances should they occur during the Games.

Deliver A Balanced Budget For 2012/13 As Per The Policing Plan 2012/15

Current Position: As at September 2011 an underspend of £5.7m

62. The MPS is committed to delivering excellent policing from tackling ASB and other crime in neighbourhoods through to dealing with terrorist and the most serious criminals often ‘behind the scenes’. However it is doing that within a financial climate of an expected reduction in its spending (compared to 2010/11 budget) of some £600m by 2014/15.

63. To do that the MPS is:

• Reducing its inanimate costs
• Delivering an effective business and operational model including:
  • Undertaking process improvement activity
  • Sharing services with and across the MPS
  • Exploring a range of outsourcing and joint ventures
• Only then reducing operational officers and PCSOs.

64. The scale of the challenge is:

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Savings £m £m £m
Already identified 260 323 323
To be identified 93 174 174
Additional pay and non-pay inflation 74
Additional reductions in general grant 29
Total required 353 497 600

65. Action underway to achieve savings:

• Major change programmes now well established and being progressed with appropriate corporate infrastructure in place to track progress and identify and manage interdependencies and risk.
• Early departure schemes developed and in operation using earmarked reserves established for this purpose.
• Star chambers established to monitor and control staff vacancies and officer deployment.
• Financial monitoring being amended to manage and control capital and revenue budgets more effectively with increased focus on major change programmes.
• Continued development of the 2012-2015 Policing London Business Plan

66. The general risks to achieving the necessary savings;

• Non-delivery of major change programme savings. Budget includes some resilience to cover such costs;
• Additional pressures placed on the service both operationally and financially e.g. recent disorder, Riot Damages Act, Royal Wedding, State Visits, increased public order/protest events, withdrawal of partnership funding;
• Enactment of the Police and Social Responsibility Act 2011 may result in additional in year costs for which there is no specific provision in MPS, although MPA have created a £2m reserve;
• Early departures - a reserve is has been established to cover costs in 2011/12. Any further voluntary departures will require additional reserves to be established.
• Discretionary pension costs - a challenge has been made to the way the MPS calculates injury pensions resulting in a potential ongoing budget pressure.

67. The specific issues identified at Period 6 (September 2011) are:

• The forecast total additional annual costs arising from the policing response to recent public disorder within London (Operation Kirkin), and the ongoing police investigation (Operation Withern), are estimated to be £80m. This represents an increase of £9m over the cost reported in Period 5. In addition there may be liabilities arising from the Riot Damages Act of anywhere between £200m to £300m which relates to the value of claims paid to insured businesses by insurers. Although the Home Secretary has confirmed that the Home Office will meet the costs of uninsured claims, the cost of claims from insured and under-insured businesses and individuals are the subject of negotiations with the Home Office. The P6 forecast assumption is that these costs will be recovered in full, but there is no such formal guarantee from the Home Office.
• Business Groups are forecasting a year-end Police Officer strength of 32,320 conditional on future recruitment and training programmes and clarity on longer-term funding
• Later than planned finalisation of match-funding agreements and other cost-sharing posts resulting in reduced income.
• In-year budget pressures on the delivery of a number of major change programmes.

68. An updated financial position (based on period 7 figures) will be presented to the Finance and Resources Committee on 15 December 2011.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Equality and Diversity Impact

1. The regular review of the statistics provided enables the MPS to highlight areas for diversity and equality consideration and address them accordingly. Key projects and programmes will have ongoing Equality Impact Assessments. Any areas where groups may have been disproportionately affected will be highlighted and mitigating actions put in place.

Consideration of MET Forward

2. The KPIs and other corporate measures covered in this report reflect performance against the key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

3. The costs associated with the monitoring and reporting of the data set out in this report are all covered by existing budgets as set out in the current approved Business Plan.

Legal Implications

4. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

5. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

6. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

7. The Strategic Operational Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

Environmental Implications

8. This report contains no direct environmental implications.

Risk Implications

9. Risks and opportunities identified in related to performance against the KPIs are reflected in the content of this report.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, Strategy and Performance Unit, Deputy Commissioner’s Portfolio, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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