The use of DNA in Operation Minstead

Report: 10
Date: 7 September 2006
By: Commissioner

Summary

Operation Minstead is the largest hunt for a serial rapist that Scotland Yard has ever mounted and was established in 1997 following the forensic link of two rape offences. The first confirmed offence was in 1992 the second offence being linked initially in 1997. Since the enquiry was established, work has continued to review all other similar offences going back to 1990, which is the earliest offence that can be linked to this series. As a consequence, a total of 97 offences have now been linked. This linking falls into three categories, definite DNA, other forensic comparisons and methodology. These offences include a series in the summer of 2003 and more recently in the autumn of 2004. The last offence attributed to this offender was on the 7 February 2005. Therefore, from the police and community perspective, this remains a significant enquiry to catch a dangerous predatory offender.

A. Recommendations

That

1. Members note the attached report

B. Supporting information

What we know about the offender

1. Given the known demographics of this individual from interviews of witnesses and the use of behavioural profiling, we can deduce the following facts, the offender was around the age of 20 –21 when he first began this series of offences which will make him aged around 37 at this time. We cannot rule out the possibility of further offences having been committed prior to this identified series but data does not exist at this time to make any more conclusive linkage nationally. The behavioural science reports strongly indicate that this man will continue to offend until caught. This type of offender is extremely rare and is categorised as a gerontaphile, (one who seeks sexual gratification from the elderly).

2. The suspect operates in a wide area of South London and identifies single elderly women living alone and on occasions, lone males. He breaks into properties during the early hours, often removing whole double glazed units to gain entry. His Modus Operandi is one of meticulous preparation, pre and post offence. The telephone is disabled, either cut or pulled from sockets. The electricity is switched off at the mains or he removes fuses. Light bulbs are removed and curtains drawn. Tools to gain entry are often taken from nearby garden sheds. The suspect often wears a mask and gloves. Victims are awoken by shining a torch in their eyes. The offender spends considerable time with the victim, up to four hours in one instance. So far he has left his DNA at ten scenes with another eleven being linked on other forensic evidence. The ages of the victims range from between 68 to 93 years.

3. Due to the method of attack and fear invoked, many of the witnesses have been unable to provide a good description of their attacker, but all who can, have stated that he is a black male, with some additionally indicating that he is a light skinned black male. Whilst none of the victims have died directly from the attack, a number have died since.

The current investigation

4. The enquiry is lead by a Detective Superintendent supported by a major enquiry team. This enquiry is being conducted with the rigour of a murder enquiry; it is catalogued on HOLMES, the MPS and national major incident IT platform. This system allows the senior investigating officer to identify common links and ensures that data can be shared, if required with other police forces in the UK. There are 21,500 people of interest who have been suggested following various appeals or from adopted lines of enquiry. Over 4,500 of these have so far been eliminated, a significant proportion through voluntary DNA sampling.

5. A reward of £40,000 has been authorised for information leading to the arrest of the offender but has so far failed to identify the offender.

6. The most substantial line of enquiry is that provided by the forensic evidence and this paper will focus on the rationale for continuing to develop this line of enquiry. However, many other lines of enquiry continue alongside this work and the nature of that work cannot be discussed in this paper.

DNA Science

7. The UK is one of the leading countries in the use of DNA and advances in the science continue on an almost daily basis. It is clear that the suspect is not recorded on the national DNA database (NDNAD). He may however have a criminal history that pre-dates the general DNA listing in the UK. The National DNA database commenced in 1995. The general running of DNA testing in the UK is overseen by the Custodian within the Home Office with representation on the NDNAB by the Human Genetics Commission.

8. As the suspect in this case is unknown for DNA purposes, additional groundbreaking work has been undertaken by the MPS team supported by a variety of forensic and academic institutions to establish whether the known facts could be used to extrapolate a wider understanding of the offender’s background. This work is crucial given the large number of people who have come to notice in this enquiry and allows the SIO to use this scientific basis to categorise and prioritise those people on an intelligence basis only. Should the suspect be identified an evidential sample would be used to confirm his involvement and form the basis of a prosecution.

9. One particular area of interest and development was ancestral predictions through the DNA crime stain analysis rather than any individuals. The Human Genome project successfully mapped human DNA. A company in Florida has taken this a step further and developed bio-geographical testing based on 177 DNA markers, which have been selected out of the many millions that make up human DNA as showing the most ancestral variance. They test for Asian, Native American, Sub-Saharan and European admixtures. The company have been used in the past by various law enforcement agencies in the USA. This test can help to geographically map individuals whose ancestral background is a mix of those outlined above.

10. This work indicated that this offender’s ancestry comprised of an admixture of:

• 82% Sub-Saharan African
• 12% Native American
• 6% European
• 0% Asian

The conclusion for this work is that both of the offenders’ parents will originate (ancestrally) from the Caribbean area.

Whilst this work was useful, it still presented a large geographical area for consideration and merely indicated ancestry, which may be more than one generation removed from the offender.

11. To provide further predictive work based on this modelling, the enquiry team agreed to undertake further controlled sampling from persons with a known ancestral link to the Caribbean. It was crucial that this sample was carefully controlled to ensure that those who purported to meet the criteria could be relied upon for accuracy of information. The enquiry team consulted with the Cultural and Communities Resource Unit and with the approval of ACPO, the Specialist Crime Directorate undertook to sample volunteers within the MPS. This work was eventually conducted in 2004 with over 50 staff volunteering to provide non-attributable samples. The enquiry team provided specific briefings to the volunteers and other interest groups in the MPS to ensure that the reason for this work was clearly understood. All samples were subsequently destroyed after analysis.

12. The data from this work has helped to narrow the ancestral profile of this offender to one originating from the Windward Islands of the Caribbean. From this work, the enquiry team have been able to re-prioritise many of those coming to notice, to a lower status of interest to the enquiry and consequently, avoiding questioning of those who are unlikely to be involved.

13. Through the course of the enquiry we have taken legal advice on a number of occasions to ensure that advice remains current and within the law. At present, there are 21,500 persons of interest within this enquiry. At the very best, one of these is likely to be the offender. The legal advice clarifies the situation and dictates that it would be wrong to arrest all of those individuals. In light of that, officers approach relevant individuals, discuss the case and look for an opportunity to eliminate them from the enquiry. This could be by confirming passport dates showing they were out of the country on the date of a confirmed Minstead attack.

14. If such an opportunity to eliminate does not readily exist, further research is conducted into each individual. Upon explaining the enquiry in general members of the public have been keen to assist. Indeed, this enquiry has been reported widely in the media and results in the public suggesting possible suspects and expressions of outrage. The ultimate means of eliminating anyone is by DNA. If an individual refuses to provide a DNA sample voluntarily, which is their right and has occasionally happened, the Detective Superintendent reviews all the information to establish if the individual can be eliminated by what is already known. Consequently a documented decision is made as to whether there are reasonable grounds to arrest. Throughout the enquiry, only four individuals have been arrested. To date, over 3,000 DNA samples have been provided voluntarily from individuals that could not be eliminated in any other way. These are only compared against the Minstead crime scene sample; the individual is not placed on the National Database and receives a letter explaining this process. These samples are retained for the duration of the enquiry to comply with disclosure obligations. Once the suspect is identified, only his sample will be retained and placed on the DNA National Database. All other samples will be destroyed and the individuals notified by letter.

15. On the 9 March 2006 MPA Members Lord Tope and Bob Neill were fully briefed on Operation Minstead. Lynne Featherstone MP, who had previously been briefed as an MPA member, was also in attendance.

Conclusion

16. The commitment of the MPS to catch this offender remains resolute and we continue to seek new and innovative methods to progress this work. Many other strands of work are also continuing through the use of conventional and covert policing methods. The fact that this offender has not to our knowledge, offended since 2005 should not allow for any complacency and there are contingency plans in place across the MPS to ensure the early reporting of such offences to ensure the maximum opportunity to capture evidence that will lead to the arrest of this man.

Abbreviations

ACPO

Association of Chief Police officers

CDRP

Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships

DNA

DeoxyriboNucleic Acid

HOLMES

Home Office Large Major Enquiry System

IAG

Independent Advisory Group

IPCC

Independent Police Complaints Commission

IT

Information Technology

MP

Member of Parliament

MPA

Metropolitan Police Authority

MPS

Metropolitan Police Service

NDNAD

National DNA Database

SCD

Specialist Crime Directorate

SIO

Senior Investigating Officer

USA

United States of America

UK

United Kingdom

C. Race and equality impact

1. The work undertaken by the Minstead team has been discussed with community advisors on the boroughs where these offences mainly occur. The Central IAG has also been briefed on the methodology being employed. By taking the approach we have, we continue to ensure that the enquiries are directed proportionately towards solving this series of offences whilst minimising the impact to the black and elderly communities by focussing on those whose ancestral background meets the criteria from the findings of the latest scientific methods available. This has reduced considerably, the number of individuals who may otherwise have been approached from the black communities in connection with this enquiry.

2. The Department of Public Affairs continues to provide media support for this investigation. Community impact is a key consideration when targeting appropriate media and formulating the key messages of any press release. This has included engagement with minority and mainstream media and using internal communication to support and explain the investigation's appeals for staff sampling.

3. Community concerns have been addressed by engaging with a variety of community organizations and public bodies (Bromley elderly community representatives, community meetings, MP’s, IPCC etc). The Black Police Association have also been consulted for guidance and support and are represented on the Gold Group, also composed of representatives from the local communities (where the offender was most active). Following a negative article in The Voice Newspaper, police released an explanatory article addressing the specific concerns of some of the readers. Briefings have also been provided to Ministers from the three main political parties to support investigative methods and address community concerns. Borough Commanders on each of the Boroughs where the offences have occurred have also been individually briefed to allow them to provide reassurance to the specific community groups and CDRP arrangements at a local level. Additionally the SIO continues to make himself available to provide more detailed briefings to interested groups as required.

D. Financial implications

There are no significant financial implications in relation to this ongoing enquiry. Current proposed work is being managed within budget allocations already provided to SCD.

E. Background papers

None

F. Contact details

Report author: Dave Johnston Commander Homicide and Serious Crime Command, MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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