Borough Crime Performance: April 2007 to August 2007

Report: 9
Date: 11 October 2007
By: AC Territorial Policing on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This report provides an overview of key performance indicators for MPS boroughs for April to August 2007 compared with April to August 2006. It examines performance against the main crime types and relevant critical performance areas. It also provides an external perspective via iQuanta. Longer-term trend data is against April to August 2003. Additional updates are provided for Operation Curb and Safer Neighbourhoods performance.

A. Recommendation

That Members note the report

B. Supporting information

Operation Curb (chart 1 and table 1)

1. Operation Curb includes incidents of homicide, attempted murder, GBH (Grievous Bodily Harm) and weapon-enabled incidents, where both the suspect and the victim are aged 10-19. Although Operation Curb was introduced at the end of June 2007, other initiatives such as Operation Coalmont and Operation Blunt have had an impact on these crime types and the data is therefore April to August 2007 against April to August 2006. The operation is due to run to the end of March 2008.

2. Across the MPS Operation Curb incidents have seen a decrease of 11% (151 offences) April to August 2007 against April to August 2006.

3. Chart 1 shows that 22 boroughs have seen a reduction in incidents, including all of the ‘Gang Project’ boroughs: Lewisham (-39%), Croydon (-33%), Greenwich (-28%), Lambeth (-6%) and Southwark (-5%). Of the nine boroughs with an increase, Newham has the largest change in both percentage and volume up 44% (32 offences).

4. Table 1 shows that for GBH offences Haringey are showing the greatest percentage increase (300%), whilst Havering and Hillingdon are showing the greatest percentage decrease (-67%). However, the numbers are relatively small and only cover five months, so it is difficult to draw significant conclusions from this.
Safer Neighbourhoods performance

Performance framework data - first quarter 2007 (April to June 2007 compared to April to June 2006; data source MPS Public Attitude Survey)

5. There are significant improvements in two key areas - the percentage of people agreeing that:

1. police understand the issues that matter to the local community (up from 61% to 66%).
2. local police are actually dealing with issues that matter to the local community (up from 60% to 64%).

6. Confidence in local police has dropped by 2% and concern about anti-social behaviour (ASB) has risen by 2%, from 36% to 38% (data sourced from PAS survey). We know from research that concern about anti-social behaviour is a key driver affecting confidence in local police so the findings are linked.

7. As measured by the British Crime Survey the MPS is 6% ahead of its MSF (Most Similar Force) group for confidence in local policing (MPS at 55%: March 2007 - July 2007 data not yet available).

EPIC Community Engagement data (April to June 2007 compared to April to June 2006)

8. In the first quarter of 2007, the Safer Neighbourhood Teams (SNTs) participated in 3,190 pre-planned public meetings, with a 27% increase in the numbers of people attending against last year (44,628 people in Q1 2006 compared to 56,872 in Q1 2007).

9. There has been a 31% increase in the number of contact points and surgeries arranged by the SNTs (2,044 to 2,678), and a 75% increase in the number of roll call and street briefings (326 to 570). In addition, ward panel meetings have increased by 71%, from 537 to 916.

10. With regards to total ASB initiatives, there has been a 56% increase, from 4,576 to 7,152. ASB initiatives include ASB letters issued, ASB home visits, ABCs (Acceptable Behaviour Contracts) issued and ASBOs (Anti-Social Behaviour Orders) issued.

British Crime Survey (BCS) comparator crime (chart 2a & 2b)

11. BCS offences across the MPS were down by –8.5%, recording over 19,000 fewer offences for April to August 2007 against April to August 2006. Every month this year recorded the lowest number of BCS offences for that particular month in over four years (since the measure was introduced by the Home Office in April 2003). Each month in FY 07/08 recorded fewer than 43,000 offences.

12. The MPS has seen a steady reduction in BCS offences since April 2003, with the exception of April to December 2005 when levels evened out for a few months. For April to August 2007 MPS had achieved a reduction of –20.2% (over 52,000 fewer offences) against the baseline (April to August 2003).

13. 29 boroughs are currently recording a reduction against April to August 2006, with two boroughs recording reductions over 20% and a further nine recording reductions of over 10%. Boroughs with the largest reductions are Havering down –26% (-1,430 offences), Redbridge down –21.5% (-1,370 offences) and Harrow down –19% (845 offences). Ealing are seeing the largest volume reduction down by 1,714 offences (-17%).

14. Only three boroughs are currently recording an increase, April to August 2007 against April to August 2006: Newham up 0.3% (27 offences), Westminster up 1%(138 offences) and Haringey up 2% (153 offences).

Personal robbery (chart 3a & 3b)

15. Across the MPS personal robbery is recording a reduction of –15.5%, 2,680 fewer offences April to August 2007 against April to August 2006.

16. Personal robbery has dropped by –9.6% (over 1,500 Offences) April to August 2007 against April to August 2003.

17. Reductions are being recorded in 28 boroughs this April to August, including seven with reductions over 30% and a further seven with reductions over 20%. Harrow and Havering are seeing the largest percentage reductions at –50% and –49% respectively. Lewisham and Ealing have seen the largest volume reductions both recording over 300 fewer offences.

18. The most notable increase for April to August is Camden up 19% (111 offences), Sutton are also showing a high percentage increase up 18% but this equates to only 26 more offences.

Residential burglary (chart 4a & 4b)

19. Across the MPS residential burglary is recording a reduction of –1.5%, 361 fewer offences April to August 2007 against April to August 2006.

20. Since April to August 2003, the MPS has seen a total reduction of –16.9% in residential burglary (over 4,700 fewer offences). Reductions were seen in April to August 2004 (-11%), April to August 2006 (-6%) and April to August 2007 (-2%).

21. Reductions are currently being recorded on 17 boroughs, including five with reductions of over -20%. Barking & Dagenham are seeing the largest percentage reduction down -36% (181 offences), while Hammersmith & Fulham are recording the larges volume reduction down by 254 offences (-27%).

22. Five boroughs are currently recording an increase of 20% or over, April to August 2007 against April to August 2006. Barnet are recording the highest increase in both volume and percentage terms up by 36% (292 offences).

Vehicle crime (chart 5a & 5b)

23. The MPS is currently recording a –9.8% reduction in vehicle crime. 5,456 offences fewer than in April to August 2006. The reduction in offence levels is similar in theft of vehicles and theft from vehicles. Theft of vehicles has reduced by –10.7% and theft from vehicles has reduced by –9.3%.

24. 21 boroughs are currently recording a decrease in vehicle crime. These include, Havering down –39% (-691 offences), Redbridge down –29% (-1,604 offences) and Hounslow down –28% (-513 offences).

25. 11 boroughs have recorded increases in vehicle crime. These include Bexley up 26% (220 offences) and Greenwich up 23% (341 offences). No other borough had an increase of over 10%.

26. Theft of vehicle is down –10.7% (over 1,700 fewer offences) for April – August 2007 against April to August 2006. Eight boroughs are showing an increase in theft of vehicles including Lambeth up 21% (105 offences).

27. Theft of vehicle has seen an excellent downward trend over the last five years seeing a total reduction of –34.7% (nearly 8,000 fewer offences) in April to August 2007 compared to April to August 2003. The last four years have all seen reductions.

28. Theft from vehicle is down –9.3% (over 3,600 fewer offences) for April to August 2007 against April to August 2006. Thirteen boroughs have recorded increases in theft from vehicle; these include Newham and Greenwich up by 314 and 299 offences respectively.

29. Theft from vehicle has seen a reduction of –20.5% (over 9,000 offences) for April to August 2007 against April to August 2003.

BCS assaults (BCS wounding & common assault) (chart 6a & 6b)

30. Across the MPS BCS assaults is recording a reduction of –10.0%, over 5,700 fewer offences April to August 2007 against April to August 2006. The change in offence levels is similar between BCS wounding (down –10.8%, over 3,800 fewer offences) and common assault (down –8.8%, over 1,800 fewer offences).

31. Since April to August 2003, the MPS has seen a total reduction of –13.1% in BCS assaults (over 7,700 fewer offences).

32. Reductions are being recorded in 31 boroughs, including Bexley and Harrow with reductions over 20%. Croydon is showing the largest volume reduction down by 390 offences. Newham are the only borough to have recorded an increase up 2.7% (68 offences).

Other BCS offences

33. Criminal damage is recording a reduction of –7.5% (over 3,600 fewer offences) April to August 2007 against April to August 2006.

34. Since April to August 2003, the MPS has seen a total reduction of –26.4% in criminal damage (nearly 16,000 fewer offences). The last four years (April to August) have all seen reductions.

35. 23 boroughs are recording reductions in criminal damage including 11 with over -10%. Nine boroughs are recording an increase of which only one is up over 6%.

36. Theft person is recording a reduction of –5.2% (over 800 fewer offences) April to August 2007 against April to August 2006. The split between pick pocketing and snatch theft is very different; pick pocketing is up 11.3% (over 1,000 more offences) and snatch theft is down –32.0% (over 1,900 fewer offences).

37. A total of 21 boroughs are recording a reduction including Havering with the largest percentage reduction down –42% (94 offences) and Camden with the largest volume reduction down by 301 offences (21%). Westminster is recording the highest volume increase, up by over 500 offences, their increase being due almost entirely to pick pocketing.

38. Since April to August 2003, the MPS has seen a total reduction of –26.4% in theft person (over 5,000 fewer offences). The last four years (April –August) have all seen reductions.

39. Theft of pedal cycle is currently seeing a reduction, down –7.0% (628 fewer offences). 16 boroughs are currently showing a reduction including Lambeth and Ealing with reductions over 25%. Of the 16 boroughs, seven are showing an increase of over 20%, including Enfield up 40% (34 offences).

40. Since April to August 2003, the MPS has seen a total reduction of –4.1% in theft of pedal cycle (356 fewer offences). Increases were recorded in April to August 2004 and 2005 reductions have been recorded since.

Total notifiable offences (TNO) sanctioned detection (SD) rate (chart 7)

41. The MPS are currently achieving a TNO sanction detection rate of 23.9% for April to August 2007 against a target of 24%. 17 boroughs are achieving the 24% target, including Redbridge with 30%. All boroughs are achieving rates of 19.5% or above.

42. Sanction detection rates have risen every year (April to August) since 2003, when the rate was only 11.7%. In the last three years (April to August) sanction detection rates have risen by over 3 percentage points in each year.

Offenders brought to justice (OBTJ) (chart 8)

43. Offenders brought to justice for April to July exceeded 70,000, this is up over 8,000 on the previous April to July, which was in turn up over 7,500 on April to July 2005.

Gun crime (chart 9a & 9b)

44. Across the MPS gun crime is recording an increase of 17.5%, 232 more offences April to August 2007 against April to August 2006.

45. Since April to August 2003, the MPS has seen a reduction of –11.8% (207 fewer offences).

46. 22 boroughs are currently recording an increase in gun crime including Merton up 177% (23 offences), Kensington & Chelsea up 156% (14 offences) and Westminster up 138% (36 offences). Lambeth are recording the highest volume increase, up 44 offences (52%). Of the nine boroughs with a reduction Havering have the highest both in percentage and volume, down –68% (23 offences).

Domestic violence (DV) incident arrest rate (chart 10a)

47. The MPS is recording a DV incident arrest rate of 46% for April to August 2007. Nine boroughs are recording rates of 50% or over including Tower Hamlets with 69% and Havering with 67%. Only four boroughs are recording rates under 40%.

48. This measure was introduced in FY 05/06 when the rate was 33%. In FY 06/07, a rate of 45% was achieved.

Domestic violence (DV) offence arrest rate (chart 10b)

49. The MPS is recording a DV offence arrest rate of 59% for April to August 2007. 16 boroughs are recording rates of 60% or over including five with 70% or over. Havering is recording the highest DV offence arrest with 82%. Only two boroughs are recording rates under 50%.

Overall satisfaction (chart 11)

50. At the time of writing this report, satisfaction data is only available up to June 2007. The MPS has achieved an overall victim satisfaction level of 76% April to June 2007. Nine boroughs are achieving victim satisfaction levels of 80% or above including Harrow and Barking & Dagenham both with 87%.

51. The overall victim satisfaction level for victims increased from 68% in FY 04/05 to 79% in FY 05/06 then remained fairly level achieving 78% in FY 06/07.

White and BME victim satisfaction (chart 12)

52. The difference in overall satisfaction for white and BME (black and minority ethnic) victims for April to June 2007 is 8%. This is slightly greater than the difference of 6% recorded in FY 06/07. Twelve boroughs are recording a difference of less than 5% between the satisfaction of white and BME victims.

Criminal networks disrupted

53. The MPS have disrupted 81 criminal networks during for April to July 2007.

iQuanta update to August 2007

54. Barnet, Kingston-upon-Thames and Merton are three out of only four areas nationally to have been highlighted by the Home Office PPSG (Police Performance Steering Group) as strong performing areas in crime reduction. This is the fourth time that Merton has been flagged. PPSG were to write to Merton congratulating the BOCU and CDRP (Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnership) on its performance. This is the second time that Kingston has been flagged and the first time that Barnet has been flagged.

55. Camden is no longer 'flagged' but remains under consideration as one of the priority 44 CDRPs who have a critical contribution to make to the delivery of PSA1 (Public Service Agreement).

56. The iQuanta report for crime reduction shows 'improving performance' and 'in line with peers' for BCS comparator and domestic burglary. It also shows 'no apparent change' but 'worse than peers' for all crime and violent crime.

57. The iQuanta report for sanction detections shows 'clearly improving' but 'worse than peers' for all crime and violent crime. It also shows 'clearly deteriorating' but 'in line with peers' for domestic burglary.

C. Race and equality impact

Although there were varying borough performances, the MPS remains committed to making the whole of London safer. Furthermore, implications of performance against individual targets are considered in the in-depth performance reports throughout the year, which examine performance at the corporate level. Within the TP monitoring framework, there is recognition of diversity issues relevant to the basket of performance measures, where particular attention is paid to crimes against women and crimes against specific communities, which receive significant consideration.

D. Financial implications

There are no financial or resource implications of the current work.

E. Background papers

None

F. Contact details

Report author:  Commander Paul Minton, SE Link and Performance, TPHQ, MPS.

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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