Projected progression of black and minority ethnic groups and women amongst police officers and police staff during the next ten years

Report: 8
Date: 8 July 2010
By: Director of Human Resources on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

The following report provides details of the projected progression of police officers and police staff during the next ten years. The report provides a summary of the “pyramids” previously sent to members in March 2010. As requested, the report draws upon historical workforce information and shows the possible change in representation levels of black and minority ethnic (BME) and female personnel throughout the grade/rank structures. The modelling revealed that the representation levels of female police officers and police staff are likely to increase in managerial roles, including ACPO ranks. The report also shows that BME representation levels are likely to improve during the next ten years. The report summarises the current activity around progression.

A. Recommendation

That members note the report.

B. Supporting information

Pyramids

1. During March 2010, the MPS provided the committee with details of police officer and police staff strength at the end-January 2010 in the format of “pyramids” (see Appendices 1 and 2). The “pyramids” provide details of strengths by ranks and pay bands within business groups across the MPS. The following section provides a summary for each “pyramid”.

2. At end-January 2010, from a complement of 33,235 police officers, 24,802 (74.6%) officers were constables, including 4,769 detective constables (DC). The majority of police constables work within Territorial Police (73.8% PC, 48.8% DC). Police sergeants accounted for 5,901 (17.7%) of officers, including 1,832 detectives - the majority of officers fell within Territorial Police (73.0% Police Sergeant, 46.7% Detective Sergeant). Inspectors accounted for 1,730 (5.2%) of officers, including 610 detectives – the majority of uniformed Inspectors fell with Territorial Police (66.1%), whilst the majority of Detective Inspectors were within Specialist Crime (44.4%). Chief Inspectors accounted for 476 (1.4%) of officers, including 229 detectives – the majority of uniformed Chief Inspectors fell within Territorial Police (60.3%), whilst the majority of Detective Chief Inspectors fell within Specialist Crime (37.6%). Superintendents accounted for 206 (0.6%) of officers, including 91 detectives, with the majority of uniformed Superintendents within Territorial Police (53.0%) and Detective Superintendents within Specialist Crime (44.0%). Chief Superintendents accounted for 78 (0.2%) of officers, including 30 detectives, with the majority of uniformed and detective officers within Territorial Police (60.4% uniformed, 40.0% detective). Finally, 43 (0.1%) officers had attained Association of Chief Police Officer ranks (ACPO), with the majority within Territorial Police (32.6%), followed by Specialist Operations (18.6%) and Human Resources (16.3%). Appendix 1 provides further details.

3. At end-January 2010, from a complement of 14,953 police staff there was 329 (2.2%) staff within the Industrial/other category. The Band G category (i.e. lowest paid group) comprised 464 (3.1%) staff, with the majority (52.6%) within the Human Resources Directorate. The Band F category (broadly administrative assistant) comprised 1,329 (8.9%) staff, with the highest number within Specialist Operations (33.3%), followed by Territorial Policing (22.7%) and Human Resources (14.5%). The Band E category (broadly administrative officer) comprised 7,259 (48.5%) staff and accounted for the largest group; the majority of staff fell within Territorial Police (61.0%), followed by Specialist Crime (15.7%) and Central Operations (8.4%). The Band D category (broadly first line managers) comprised 3,432 (23.0%) staff, with the majority falling within Specialist Crime (32.5%) and Territorial Police (28.6%). The Band C category (managers including HR and Finance) comprised 1,230 (8.2%) staff, with the majority falling within the “Other” (includes Finance) category (35.9%), followed by Specialist Crime (23.9%), Territorial Police (16.6%) and Human Resources (16.0%). The Band B category comprised 646 (4.3%) staff, with the majority within the “Other” category (49.2%), followed by Specialist Crime (21.5%), Human Resources (19.7%) and Territorial Police (7.3%). Finally, the most senior Bands (i.e. Band A, Directors, etc.) accounted for 264 (1.8%) of staff, with the majority falling within the “Other” category (58.0%), followed by Human Resources (19.3%), Specialist Operations (7.6%) and Specialist Crime (7.2%). Appendix 2 provides further details.

4. A further report covering detective capacity and capability, which focuses upon the distribution of detective resources across the MPS, impact of restructuring upon the MPS’ detective asset and succession planning will also be presented by the Director of Human Resources during the CEP meeting.

Current profile of police officers and staff

5. At the end March 2010, from a workforce of 33,260 police officers, BME accounted for 9.3% (n = 3,100) and female officers 23.4% (n = 7,770) of the workforce. By contrast, ten-years ago, the BME and female officers accounted for only 4.1% (n = 1,055) and 15.7% (n = 4,005), respectively, from a workforce of 25,430 officers. Consequently, the overall representation levels of BME and female officers have increased substantially, with the increase in BME strength more than doubling. Nevertheless, what has been the impact upon diversity representation levels within different ranks?

6. During the last ten years, there has been a marked increase in the representation levels of both BME and female officers at managerial ranks (i.e. inspector rank and higher). The proportion of BME officers has nearly doubled, increasing from 2.3% (n = 44) to 4.3% (n = 108), and female officers increasing from 5.5% (n = 106) to 16.8% (n = 421). In terms of sergeants, the BME officer representation level has increased from 2.6% (n = 111) to 5.1% (n = 305), and female officers from 10.1% (n = 422) to 14.9% (n = 890). Interestingly, whilst the increase in BME officer representation amongst constables, sergeants and managerial ranks has been relatively constant (i.e. around 2 times), the increase in female officer representation has been more modest at constable and sergeant ranks (i.e. around 1.5 times), but greater (i.e. around 3 times) within the managerial ranks.

7. At the end March 2010, from a workforce of 14,330 police staff, BME staff accounted for 23.3% (n = 3,349) and female staff 57.7% (n = 8,273). Currently, BME staff account for 10.5% (n = 225) and female staff 42.3% (n = 904) of managers (i.e. pay band C and above). In terms of supervisory bandings (e.g. band D), BME staff account for 18.1% (n = 608) and female staff 53.1% (n = 1,788) within this group. Within the administrative grades (i.e. bandings E and F), BME staff account for 26.1% (n = 2,127) and female staff 62.9% (n = 5,127) of the workforce. BME groups are significantly over-represented within the band G industrial grades.

8. The following section provides a forward look at progression within the workforce based upon the historical workforce information.

Looking forward - projected progression

9. Historical workforce information provided a measurement of the change in progression over time at the different levels in the workforce. The projections were based upon the observed changes over time in BME and female representation levels within police officer ranks and police staff pay bandings. Linear regression techniques were used to help model the gradient of change, albeit positive or negative trends, within each rank and pay banding. This method provided a method of assessing change over time and projecting forward. However, during the last ten-years, the corporate environment has changed significantly with unparalleled growth in the number of police officers and, to a lesser extent, police staff, with the introduction of a range of strategies covering positive action, recruitment and retention. Conversely, during the next ten-years, the environmental conditions are likely to be very different (e.g. changes in recruitment pathways, positive action support, promotion opportunities, etc.) which may, in turn, the projections.

Police officers

10. Appendix 3 (attached) presents a summary of projected progression for BME and female officers in the form of a ‘pyramid’. Appendix 3 shows that with the police strength remaining constant at 32,684 officers over the ten-year period, overall BME officer representation is likely to reach 15.2% (n = 4,955) by March 2020 (net increase of 1,855 BME officers). The BME officer representation amongst constables is likely to reach 17.8% (n = 4,325), nearly 1 in 5 constables from BME communities. The BME officer representation amongst sergeants is likely to increase from 5.1% (n = 305) to 7.9% (n = 460). The inspector rank is likely to see BME officer representation increase from 4.4% (n = 74) to 7.1% (n = 118). The BME officer representation amongst chief inspectors is likely to increase from 4.3% (n = 21) to 7.7% (n = 37). The BME officer representation amongst superintendents is likely to increase from 3.6% (n = 8) to 5.5% (n = 12). The projections for the chief superintendent and ACPO ranks did not reveal any increase in the number of BME officers or representation levels.

11. Appendix 3 highlights the anticipated sustained increase in female officer representation across all ranks, with female officers accounting for 31.8% (n = 10,386) of the police workforce in ten-years. The modelling would suggest that the ranks with the greatest increases in female officer representation levels are likely to be within the chief superintendent rank, increasing from 9.1% (n = 7) to 18.3% (n = 14), and the ACPO group, increasing from 17.1% (n = 7) to 29.2% (n = 12). Female officers representation at the constable rank is likely to increase from 26.1% (n = 6,459) to 35.3% (n = 8,598), accounting for around 1 in 3 constables. The female officer representation amongst sergeants is likely to increase from 14.9% (n = 890) to 20.4% (n = 1,196), around 1 in 5 sergeants being female. The female officer representation amongst inspectors is likely to increase from 19.4% (n = 328) to 28.2% (n = 467). The female officer representation amongst chief inspectors is likely to increase from 11.7% (n = 57) to 15.5% (n = 74). The superintendent rank had the lowest increase in female representation, increasing from 10.0% (n = 22) to 11.4% (n = 25).

12. During the last 20 years, according to workforce information, 5,120 (17.9%) graduates and 112 (0.4%) High Potential Development Scheme (HPDS) participants joined the MPS from a total of 28,611 police joiners. A crude analysis of the current rank at end March 2010, revealed that of the 28,611 joiners, 700 (13.7%) graduates and 16 (14.5%) HPDS had attained the rank of sergeant, compared to 1,968 (8.4%) non-graduates and 2,652 (9.3%) non-HPDS; a total of 98 (1.9%) graduates and 8 (7.1%) HPDS had attained the rank of inspector, compared to 229 (1.0%) non-graduates and 320 (1.1%) non-HPDS; a total of 49 (1.0%) graduates and 13 (11.4%) HPDS had attained the rank of chief inspector, compared to 29 (0.1%) non-graduate and 65 (0.2%) non-HPDS. The data would suggest that graduates and HPDS participants appear to have higher progression rates (around 1.5 times) than non-graduates and non-HPDS recruits.

13. The projections suggest that over the next ten-years, whilst BME officer representation is likely to increase substantially in the junior ranks, the BME officer representation amongst senior ranks (i.e. chief superintendent and higher) may not improve. [1] Therefore, during the near future, the progression of BME officers to the chief inspector and superintendent ranks will be critical to BME representation amongst chief superintendents and ACPO ranks. The projections for female progression appear to be very positive. However, the relatively low increase in female representation within the superintendent rank reveals a potential longer-term risk for female representation within chief superintendent and ACPO ranks. As noted earlier, the corporate environment is constantly changing, particularly in relation to career management and HR policy, and a wide range of interventions are being developed and implemented (see paragraph 21).

Police staff

14. Appendix 4 presents the projected progression within police staff pay bands for BME and women during the next ten years. Appendix 4 shows that from a workforce of 15,376 police staff (anticipated level at March 2012), BME staff representation is likely to increase from 23.4% (n = 3349) to 31.9% (n = 4,907). The BME staff representation amongst the most senior roles (i.e. band A and beyond) is likely to decrease from 5.8% (n = 17) to 3.8% (n = 12). Conversely, the projected BME representation amongst band B roles is likely to nearly double, increasing from 9.7% (n = 62) to 18.0% (n = 124). The BME staff representation amongst band C roles is also likely to increase from 12.2% (n = 146) to 17.0% (n = 219).

15. The BME staff representation amongst Band D supervisory grades is likely to increase from 18.1% (n = 608) to 24.4% (n = 883). BME staff representation amongst administrative grades is likely to increase further. The BME representation within band E administrators is likely to reach 35.6% (n = 2,631) and within band F administrators 36.3% (n = 491), both greater than the London BME population. The BME representation within band G (catering and industrial grades) is likely to increase from 53.1% (n = 224) to 70.0% (n = 317) if trends remain constant.

16. Appendix 4 reveals that during the next ten-years, the overall female representation level amongst police staff is likely to remain relatively constant at around 57% (n = 8,835), slightly greater than the female population in London. Figure 2 also highlights that the female representation amongst senior managers is likely to increase, with female staff accounting for 34.7% (n = 109) within band A or higher roles, and 59.5% (n = 410) within band B roles. Female representation within the band C role is likely to increase slightly to 48.8% (n = 628), and within band D increasing to 57.3% (n = 2,068). The female representation amongst band E and F administrators is likely to decrease slightly to 59.9% (n = 4,426) band E and 48.5% (n = 656) band F.

17. The findings reveal a promising picture in terms of female progression, particularly within senior managerial roles where female representation levels look set to increase. Female representation also looks as though it will increase amongst junior managers and supervisors, but decrease slightly within administrative grades. BME representation looks set to increase further, with notable potential gains within the band B group, junior managerial and supervisory roles, though still significantly lower than the London BME population. However, the gap between the most senior bands appears to be widening with potentially decreasing BME representation within the band A plus group. BME representation amongst administrative grades is likely to be close to the London BME population. However, according to the projections, BME and females are likely to be significantly over-represented within band G industrial and catering grades.

Improving the odds of success

18. The Promoting Difference (PD) programme, a menu of development options for those from under represented groups, has made a significant impact upon the numbers of BME officers promoted in 2009/10. In total 33 BME officers who had taken part in elements of Promoting Difference were promoted. The most successful elements were the promotion study groups and the Positive Action Leadership Programme (PALP). A survey of all those who attended PALP during 2009 showed that 1 in 5 people had successfully applied for promotion or selection to a specialist role within 12 months of attending and had credited the programme as instrumental to their success.

19. In relation to the recent sergeant to inspector process, of the six male BME officers who were successful in their application, four or 67% had been part of the promoting difference study group; this means that those on the programme were 1.5 times more likely to be successful than those who had not. Of the seven BME females who applied, only the one on the study group was successful. Of the 44 people involved in the study groups, all submitted an expression of interest and 91% actually applied. If this trend continues across other processes then the study groups are one of the most cost-effective and successful methods for guaranteeing the progression of BME officers in the MPS. It also suggests that the programme is providing the skills needed to progress and the confidence necessary to make effective leaders as well as building a network of BME officers at all ranks who are committed to helping others progress.

20. In the recent constable to sergeant process, of the BME officers who succeeded, twice as many had attended a study group (12 out of 17 had taken part in study group process). All four BME officers promoted to superintendent in 2009 took part in a PD study group as did all 8 successfully promoted to chief inspector.

21. Although future opportunities for promotion are uncertain at this time, the focus of the PD team will be to support officers so that they are in the best position to apply when opportunities do become available. Other current or future work of the PD team includes:

• Pilot development centres for BME chief inspectors and inspectors aimed at maximising performance in current role as well preparing a career development plan based on the new promotion assessment criteria
• Creating a series of BME role model case studies (at each rank) on PeoplePages to inspire more officers to apply
• Springboard and Encompass programmes for women
• Career management workshops in partnership with staff associations (e.g. AMP)
• Piloting promotions workshops with Specialist Operations (based on planning at least 12 months before process)
• Enhancing career development information and guidance within ‘PeoplePages’
• Enhancing the Promoting Difference mentoring programme
• Developing the sergeants and inspectors core leadership programmes to enhance focus on developing all staff
• Updating guidance in relation to Work Based Assessment so that assessors ask candidates what they are doing to spot and develop potential from officers from under represented groups
• Liaising with NPIA re possible job swaps for BME officers from other forces
• Discussions with the Safer London Foundation regarding mentors from corporate partners as well as attachments
• Holding regular meetings with the Staff Support Associations and delivering interventions in partnership with them
• Enhance marketing, communications and PD networks to encourage more BME officers to apply for promotion
• Develop PD work shadowing process so that officers can observe senior colleagues in a variety of roles and form valuable networks

C. Race and equality impact

The diversity and equality implications are discussed within the report.

D. Financial implications

The costs associated with the monitoring, set out above, and activities undertaken to improve the statistics are all contained within existing HR and Business wide budgets as approved in the latest Business Planning cycle.

E. Legal implications

This report is submitted as part of the governance process. There are no direct legal implications, however, significant under representation or a significant decline in representation in any protected group may be referred to in Employment Tribunal proceedings to support the discrimination claim.

F. Background papers

None

G. Contact details

Report authors: Tamsyn Heritage, MPS Head of Talent Management & Duncan Arnold, MPS Strategic Researcher

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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