Commissioner’s report

Report: 6
Date: 30 September 2010
By: Commissioner

Summary

This report summarises recent performance in the MPS, as well as operations and initiatives designed to tackle crime and make London safer.

It is intended to update MPA members and give a high-level, strategic view of the work of the MPS. It highlights the Commissioner’s operational priorities of improving public confidence, tackling serious violence and serious youth violence, delivering value for money policing, ensuring a safe and secure Olympics and countering terrorism.

The performance figures referred to throughout are those for April to July 2010, the latest available before the deadline for submitting this report.

A. Recommendations

The report be received.

B. Supporting information

1. The following paragraphs offer Members a summary of recent performance within the MPS. The performance data referred to below is for April - July 2010 compared to April - July 2009. This is the most recently available data at the time of writing. At the Full Authority meeting, the Commissioner will be able to update members on performance in August 2010.

2. The report also makes reference to the emerging financial situation facing the MPS. The size of the expected reduction in the Home Office budget will not be known until after the announcement of the Chancellor’s Comprehensive Spending Review on 20 October. While it is not yet clear how much of that reduction will come from police budgets, it is clear that we face an extremely difficult financial challenge over the next four years.

Confidence and satisfaction

3. The Home Secretary announced on 29 June that the single Confidence measure and the Policing Pledge would be scrapped with immediate effect. The MPS has been in discussion with the MPA about our response to that announcement and a review is underway.

4. The MPS intend to move to an indicator that concentrates on measuring public confidence in local police activity. This will be derived from the MPS’s own public attitude survey. The public’s response to this question has been collected for a number of years so a robust baseline and historic figures exist to compare against present performance.

5. The contract to carry out the public attitude survey will be re-tendered for the next financial year. A working group has been established to consider the implications of any changes in methodology. The MPA have been invited to join the working group.

6. As the Commissioner said to the last Full Authority meeting, the MPS welcomes the removal of central targets, but this does not mean confidence is not important. The priorities for the MPS remain safety, confidence, providing value for money and delivering a safe and secure Olympic and Paralympic Games. The MPS must improve public confidence by increasing its presence on the streets, being intolerant of violence in all its forms and convincing communities we are on their side.

7. The latest BCS confidence results show that the percentage of people who agree that the police and local council are dealing with anti social behaviour and crime issues that matter in their area rose to 54.7% for the financial year ending 2009/10.

8. The MPS are also placed at number 1 in the Most Similar Forces comparison and the recent Home Office report "Crime in England and Wales 2009/10" stated that London had a statistically significantly higher confidence than the average for England and Wales (the average confidence for E&W was 51%).

9. The latest User Satisfaction Survey results are also pleasing. Overall satisfaction rose to 79.1% (81.0% for White users & 74.2% for BME users) for the first quarter of this financial year (Mar – Jun 2010) up from 78.1%.

Performance

Total Notifiable Offences

10. Total Notifiable Offences (TNOs) in the period from April to July 2010 were down -0.6% on the same period last year. That equates to 1,707 fewer offences, and means total crime is broadly stable. It is the lowest number of TNOs in April-July since 1998.

Serious Acquisitive Crime

11. Serious Acquisitive Crime (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary) continues to fall overall. It was down -2.1% in April - July 2010 compared to 2009, equating to 1,415 fewer offences.

12. Within Serious Acquisitive Crime, robbery continues to present a challenge, increasing by 568 offences (+5%) in April - July 2010 compared to the same period last year. The reduction target for 2010/11 is 3.0%. Whilst robbery with a gun has decreased by -11.7% (69 offences) the MPS is closely monitoring the recent rise in knife-enabled robberies and has put plans in place early on to tackle it. An intelligence-led approach is being used, focussing on geographic crime hotspot areas and high-risk offenders.

13. There were 1,984 fewer residential burglary offences in April - July 2010 compared to the same period last year, a reduction of -10.1%. This currently exceeds the end of year target of -4.0%.

Most Serious Violence

14. While Most Serious Violence (MSV) is showing a reduction of -21.1% and is achieving the 4% reduction target, it is possible that part of this reduction may be due to the way that classification guidance was interpreted last year. A broader and more reliable indicator of the level of violence is MSV combined with Assault With Injury (AWI) which is also showing a -3.4% reduction (863 fewer offences).

15. The definition of MSV is all homicides, attempted murder, wounding, GBH and causing death by dangerous driving. AWI includes actual bodily harm and other crimes causing injury, including racial and religiously aggravated actual bodily harm.

16. Overall, knife crime is up by 131 offences (+3.1%) in April - July 2010 compared to the same period last year. Knife enabled robberies have increased by +6.3% (145 offences), which has contributed to this overall rise. In recent years knife enabled robberies have accounted for approximately 1 in 5 of all robbery offences. However, instances of ‘knives used to injure’ are now down by -5%, reducing from 1,591 offences in April - July 2009 to 1,512 offences for the same period this year.

17. Reducing gun crime also remains a key priority for the MPS. There have been 114 fewer gun crime offences in April - July 2010 compared to the same period last year (a decrease of –9.8%). Instances of firearms being discharged have also reduced; from 280 offences in April - July 2009 to 275 offences for the same period this year. This represents a reduction of -1.8%.

18. The overall figures for knife crime and gun crime can however create a misleading impression to the public who might perceive these to relate solely to stabbings or shootings and can imply that incidents of violent crime are higher than they are in reality. Our preference would be to report ‘knives used to injure’ i.e. stabbings and ‘firearms being discharged’ i.e. shootings which would provide a clearer and more helpful approach.

19. The MPS is making significant efforts to reduce gun crime in conjunction with broader efforts to reduce violence. Bespoke Trident plans are in place for specific Boroughs; Operation Verano is targeting extra resources based on intelligence; SCD7 is focussing on tackling the supply of firearms; and the media is being used proactively to increase public understanding, provide reassurance and encourage information.

Serious Youth Violence

20. Serious youth violence (SYV) increased by +1.9% (an increase of 45 victims during April - July 2010 compared to the same period in 2009). Tackling SYV and youth homicide remains a key priority for the Commissioner.

21. To keep young people safe, we continue to maintain our tactical focus through the umbrella of Operation Verano, which directs the Blunt 2 taskforce, Operation Protect, Safer Schools officers, Safer Transport Teams and local BOCU officers working together to ensure a safe journey for young people between home and school.

22. Operation Verano is also able to task additional officers from the Territorial Support Group, the Commissioner’s Reserve and CO19. This allows for a flexible response based on daily intelligence.

23. Since April 2010, as part of Blunt 2, Operation Vinco has provided additional resources to BOCUs particularly affected by knife crime, with the aim of detecting and reducing robberies and consequently knife crime and victimisation.

24. As the Commissioner reported to the last Full Authority meeting, the MPS has been involved in a number of successful initiatives for young people around London, notably the ‘Lay it Down’ music events at schools in Hackney and Stoke Newington and the ‘Carry a Basketball, Not a Blade’ sports event in Newham. Both projects involved officers working with students from a number of schools to raise the issues of robbery, knife crime and gangs.

25. In June the MPS held its annual Junior Citizens event at White Hart Lane, along with colleagues from partners including Hackney Council, Transport for London, London Fire Brigade and the London Ambulance Service. The programme has been running for over 20 years and aims to prepare young people for some of the challenges they may face as they become young adults, including health, personal safety, bullying, anti-social behaviour and knife crime. This year’s event was a resounding success with over 1,200 children attending from junior schools across Hackney.

26. As the Commissioner stressed at the last Full Authority meeting, the key to tackling serious youth violence is prevention. The vast majority of police work will always be about suppression, so the prevention work carried out by our partners in government, local government and our communities is vital.

Domestic Violence

27. Further to the update the Commissioner gave at the last Full Authority, there was a reduction in reported domestic violence offences of –1.1% in April - July 2010 compared to the same period last year, equating to 197 fewer offences.

28. The MPS anticipated a rise in reported domestic violence incidents during the football World Cup, as has been the case during previous summer tournaments. That this did not occur is welcome, but we must not be complacent.

29. As the Commissioner stated at July’s meeting, we should always be cautious about such positive trends and recognise that domestic violence is an under-reported crime. We must continue our hard work to change this. The MPS ‘You make the call - we’ll make it stop’ advertising campaign over the summer is a good example of that work.

Value for Money

30. As reported to September’s Finance & Resources Committee, following the announcement by the Chancellor of the Exchequer on 24 May 2010 regarding in-year savings measures, the Home Office notified the MPA/MPS that grant allocations will be reduced by £30.4m, with a further £5m reduction in Counter Terrorism funding. Of the £30.4m general grant reduction £28m relates to revenue and £2.4m relates to capital allocations.

31. In developing a programme to meet this late notification of grant reduction it should be noted that the 2010/11 budget approved by the MPA on 1 April 2010 included £124m of budget reductions which the Service is managing. Comparison with other Police Authority budgets shows that for the second year, the MPA/MPS is the only Authority/Service to deliver a reduction in their precept demand (2009/10 -1%; 2010/11 -3.3%). Managing the additional reductions will therefore put a significant additional pressure on the Service.

32. In order to meet the required in-year savings, Management Board have approved a range of options to drive down expenditure, including the establishment of a recruitment ‘star chamber’ through which recruitment requests must be approved.

33. The MPS anticipates a significant reduction in future policing budgets following the announcement of the Chancellor’s Comprehensive Spending Review on 20 October. The Commissioner has clearly stated that all officers and staff must do all they can to maintain our operational capability, deliver efficient and effective support services at the lowest possible cost and make the most productive use of our operational assets.

34. Against this uncertain financial background the Service continues to work with the Authority and the Mayor in developing the 2011-14 Policing Plan within the terms agreed with the Authority.

TP Development Programme

35. Since the TP Development Programme began in January 2010, we have completed an initial scoping phase, which gathered a range of evidence allowing the identification of potential options for change. The programme has now moved in to a more thorough review of these options in order to fully understand which are effective, deliverable and affordable to confirm how we will deliver the changes.

36. The TP Development Programme, like the rest of the MPS, also needs to take into account the full impact of the Comprehensive Spending Review which published on 20 October. This will inform decisions, as the size of the savings required and money available to support change will have to be considered. Planning the implementation of change will take the requirements for policing the Olympics into account to ensure work does not impact on its support and delivery.

37. AC Ian McPherson recently briefed MPA members and officers on the TP Development Programme. ‘The Programme of Change’ is predicated on 32 boroughs remaining the basis of how the MPS provides normal policing services to the public and how we are answerable to local partners and the public. Safer Neighbourhood policing will remain at the heart of our policing model.

Olympics

38. The MPS continues to work closely with its partners to ensure that the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games pass off safely and securely. While the security regime will be clearly visible, it will not be oppressive so allowing the focus to be on the sport that is going to take place.

39. With less than two years to go, the Olympic Safety and Security Programme is both on track and within the previously announced budget. It is anticipated that the Government will announce details of the comprehensive spending review in October which will impact on core policing budgets and may also impact on the Olympic security budget.

40. Work continues to be undertaken on building the infrastructure that will be required, with the upgrades for Airwave and the Command and Control rooms as well as the creation of the National Olympic Coordination Centre all progressing well.

41. Following extensive reviews by the command team, the number of officers required to police the games has been adjusted and these figures have been used in a national exercise to identify how the resource requirement will be met. This is an on-going process which will get more and more accurate as the police service gets more clarity about both venues (and how they will operate) and the events schedule.

C. Other organisational and community implications

1. Equality and Diversity Impact

1.1 This report is concerned with overall MPS performance, but a number of equalities issues are highlighted, notably measures to encourage the reporting of domestic violence.

1.2 Throughout all the operational activity detailed in this report, the MPS strives to improve the quality of service provided to victims of hate crime, ensuring that a consistent and effective service is provided to London’s diverse communities; to improve performance against domestic violence, ensuring a consistent level of service across all communities and minimising disproportionality issues; to increase community trust and confidence in the police; to develop a workforce that reflects the diversity of London.

2. Consideration of MET Forward

2.1 This report fully reflects how the MPS is delivering the three key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

3. Financial Implications

3.1 The financial challenges facing the Service are highlighted under Section B of this report.

3.2 Reports on the progress against the current business plan and budget are submitted on a regular basis to the MPA.

4. Legal Implications

4.1 As this report is a summary of operational performance data, no legal implications arise.

5. Environmental Implications

5.1 This report contains no direct environmental implications.

6. Risk Implications

6.1 The risks and opportunities are reflected in the content of this report and controls are in place where appropriate.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report author(s): Director of Business Strategy, Michael Debens, MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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