Acting Commissioner’s report

Report: 6
Date: 27 January 2011
By: Acting Commissioner

Summary

This report summarises recent performance in the MPS, as well as operations and initiatives designed to tackle crime and make London safer.

It is intended to update MPA members and give a high-level, strategic view of the work of the MPS. It highlights the Commissioner’s operational priorities of improving public confidence, tackling serious violence and serious youth violence, delivering value for money policing, ensuring a safe and secure Olympics and countering terrorism.

The performance figures referred to throughout this report are those for April to November 2010, the latest available before the deadline for submitting this report.

A. Recommendation

That the report be received.

B. Supporting information

1. The following paragraphs offer Members a summary of recent performance within the MPS. The performance data referred to below is for April - November 2010 compared to April - November 2009. This is the most recently available data at the time of writing. At the Full Authority meeting, the Commissioner will be able to update members on performance in December 2010.

2. The report also makes reference to the financial situation facing the MPS. Full Authority had previously received the revenue budget position at the meeting held on 25 November. This position reflected the best information available on the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) and on the guidance from the Mayor. The provisional grant settlement announced in December has had an impact on these planning assumptions, reducing the overall resources available to support the police activity in the Capital. The impact of the settlement was partially offset by the additional precept support indicated in the Mayor’s draft consultation budget which was published on 22 December 2010. A revised draft business plan and budget, along with a response to the Mayor’s draft consultation budget for 2011/12, will be considered at the 27 January Full Authority.

3. Significant police resources were deployed in November and December to deal with the large scale public protests against education policy. For entirely the right reasons, the MPS has been reducing the number of officers deployed on public order events over recent years. Given that every officer policing a public order event is an officer not policing elsewhere in London, this has helped ensure that the MPS is making best use of its resources. Recent events have led the MPS to adopt a more cautionary approach to planning for and policing public protest in London to ensure that the police response is effective. The increased deployment of officers to public order policing is likely to have an impact on the resourcing of pan-London and borough based crime initiatives.

4. Since the MPA Full Authority last met, Assistant Commissioner Chris Allison has taken up his new position as full-time AC Olympics. Assistant Commissioner Lynne Owens has been appointed AC Central Operations.

Confidence and Satisfaction

5. The MPS has been in regular discussion with the MPA about our response to the abolition of the Policing Pledge by the Home Secretary last year. A paper was presented to the Communities, Equalities and People Committee on 13 December, detailing the decision to replace the Policing Pledge with a set of public statements that set out the MPS intentions.

6. A working group has been established to consider the implications of any changes in methodology and the MPA have been invited to join the working group. As a result of changes put forward by this group, Management Board confirmed that the PAS methodology would remain a face-to-face representative survey of Londoners and maintain consistency with previous years. However, the sample size will be reduced in order to reduce costs of this survey. The PAS has been tendered to market research companies on the MPS framework and evaluations of these bids will be conducted shortly.

7. In the meantime, the latest BCS confidence results show that the percentage of people who agree that the police and local council are dealing with anti social behaviour and crime issues that matter in their area rose to 56% for the rolling year to June 2010, up from 54.7% for the rolling year to March 2010 and ahead of our year end target of 55.4%. The MPS also remains first in its Most Similar Forces comparison group. We await the latest survey results for the rolling year to September 2010 and these will be commented on in February’s written report.

8. User Satisfaction Survey results relate to the period March to September 2010. Overall satisfaction remained stable at 78.9% compared to 79.1% for the period March to June 2010. White user satisfaction remained stable at 80.9% (compared to 81% for the period March to June 2010) and BME user satisfaction fell slightly to 73.2% (compared to 74.2% for the period March to June 2010).

Performance

Total Notifiable Offences

9. Total Notifiable Offences (TNOs) in the period from April to November 2010 were down 0.2% on the same period last year. That equates to 1,032 fewer offences, and means total crime is broadly stable. It is the lowest number of TNOs in April - November since 1998.

Serious Acquisitive Crime

10. Serious Acquisitive Crime (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary) is up slightly by 0.8% for the period from April to November 2010. This equated to 997 additional offences (up to 129,998 offences from 129,001 offences).

11. This has been predominantly driven by a recent rise in motor vehicle crime which is up by 3.4% or 2,292 offences compared to the same period last year. We continue to tackle this crime on a borough by borough basis targeting known hot spots.

12. Robbery also continues to present a challenge, up by 5.5% or 1,193 offences. The increase in personal robberies remains the driver behind this, up 7.2% or 1,410 offences. Within this, personal robberies where a gun was involved decreased by 21.7%, however knife enabled personal robberies have risen by 10.9% the main driver being robberies where a knife has been intimated (robberies where a knife was used to injure have fallen by 5%).

13. In response to this rise the MPS has continued with Operation Blunt 2 and extended Operation Autumn Nights, which was originally launched to address the seasonal upsurge in robbery and violence in early November, to the end of the financial year. Whilst clearly a challenging area for the MPS it is important to bear in mind that robbery is still at its third lowest level for the last ten years.

14. Alongside increased operational activity, a targeted media campaign has been launched urging the public to keep valuable possessions safe, particularly around transport hubs.

15. There were 2,488 fewer residential burglary offences over the period April to November 2010 compared to the same period last year. This represents a reduction of 6.2% and currently exceeds the end of year target of 4.0%.

Most Serious Violence

16. Violence with Injury (VWI includes all Most Serious Violence and Assault With Injury offences) is showing a reduction of 5.3% for the FYTD period April 2010 to November 2010 compared to the same period last year.

17. Overall Gun crime continues to fall, down by 16.2%, (374 fewer offences) as does instances where a firearm has been discharged, down by 8.4% (46 fewer offences).

18. The MPS is making significant strides in reducing gun crime in conjunction with broader efforts to reduce violence. Bespoke Trident plans are in place for specific Boroughs; Operation Verano is targeting extra resources based on intelligence; SCD7 is focussing on tackling the supply of firearms; and the media is being used proactively to increase public understanding, provide reassurance and encourage information.

19. Whilst this reduction is clearly pleasing, the challenge remains to maintain this over the longer term, especially crimes where guns have been discharged and homicides where a gun has been used and this rightly remains a key focus for us.

20. Knife crime however remains a challenge, up by 3.9% (321 more offences) compared to the same period last year. As mentioned above, the main driver behind the rise in knife crime is related to robbery and in particular robberies where knives are being intimated as a threat as opposed to being used to injure victims.

21. It is encouraging that instances where a knife is used to injure continue to fall, down by 4.3%. That’s 125 fewer stabbings on London’s streets, with offences reducing from 2,921 to 2,796.

22. As well as Op Autumn Nights we continue to tackle this area of crime having rolled out a programme of knife arches and hand held scanners at schools across the capital, weapon sweeps in parks known to be high risk areas and through an intelligence-led approach, focussing on geographic crime hotspot areas and high-risk offenders.

Homicide

23. There were 2 fewer homicides during April to November 2010 compared to the previous year (a reduction from 86 to 84 homicides) representing the fewest homicides for the period since at least 1999/00. Homicides due to knives and sharp objects fell by 4 however those due to firearms rose by 10.

24. Preventing homicides, especially of teenagers, is the cornerstone of the MPS’s anti-knife crime strategy which revolves around Operation Blunt 2 and we continue to focus our partnership work on the prevention of these tragedies.

Serious Youth Violence

25. In April to November 2010 there have been an additional 10 offences of serious youth violence compared with 2009, an increase of 0.2%.

26. To keep young people safe, we continue to maintain our tactical focus through the umbrella of Operation Verano, which includes the Blunt 2 taskforce, Safer Schools officers, Safer Transport Teams and local BOCU officers working together to ensure a safe journey for young people between home and school.

27. The key to tackling serious youth violence is prevention. The vast majority of police work will always be about suppression, so the prevention work carried out by our partners in government, local government and our communities is vital.

Domestic Violence and Hate Crime

28. The period April to November 2010 saw further reductions in the number of reported Domestic Violence and Hate Crime offences. Domestic Violence offences were down by 4.8% (1,715 fewer offences), Racist and Religious Crime offences were down by 12.1% (857 fewer offences) and Homophobic Crime offences were down by 7.1% (73 fewer offences).

29. Despite this reduction it is important to recognise that these are under-reported crimes and that the MPS takes all domestic violence and hate crime offences seriously.

Rape

30. So far this financial year, the number of recorded rape offences has increased by 368 offences over the same period last year (up by 20%).

31. SOP committee on 9 December discussed a report on the first year of operation of the SCD2 Sapphire Command.

Public Order

32. At the 25 November Full Authority meeting the Commissioner updated MPA Members on the disorder that took place at Millbank on 10 November 2010 during a NUS protest and on the containment operation during a student demonstration on 24 November.

33. Since that meeting there have been two further significant public order operations involving student demonstrations: disorder in Trafalgar Square on 30 November 2010 and serious violence and disorder in Parliament Square on 9 December 2010. It is anticipated that large scale protests will continue to take place in London during 2011, and the MPS will also see substantial demands on public order policing in relation to events such as the Royal Wedding and state visits.

34. The right to protest is a fundamental part of a democratic society and the MPS will always facilitate peaceful protest. However, strongly held views can never legitimise violence. Those who commit acts of violence will be identified and brought to justice. The post event investigation into crime and disorder arising from the student demonstrations (Operation Malone) now has 78 officers and staff seconded to identify, arrest and charge those committing the most serious acts of violence and damage. The operation is supported by all business groups (with TP contributing approximately 35% of staff), a HOLMES based major incident room and two dedicated CPS lawyers.

35. The amount of footage to view is substantial and it is anticipated that some cases will take several months to conclude, but appropriate cases are being identified with the CPS to be dealt with at the earliest opportunity. It is likely that this major resource commitment will continue for the next few months with staff returning to their business groups as soon as possible. Nevertheless, there will continue to be an impact on those areas of business from which seconded staff are drawn.

36. As the Commissioner reported at the 25 November 2010 Full Authority meeting, the MPS had been reducing the number of officers policing marches and demonstrations for a number of years, so as to increase the number of officers available for borough and safer neighbourhoods duties. Following the disorder at Millbank on 10 November 2010, the MPS is taking a cautionary approach to public order resourcing, planning for peaceful demonstrations but building in the capacity to respond to serious disorder. Clearly, this resource requirement is having an impact on local policing.

37. We expect more significant protests in 2011, alongside the demands of policing London’s large scale public events. The MPS is determined to maintain public confidence: both the confidence of those protesting by treating them fairly, and the confidence of members of the public who want to go about their business. The public will not have confidence in a police service that cannot keep order on the streets. It is equally important to maintain officer confidence by displaying strong leadership and employing appropriate tactics that do not put them at unnecessary risk.

38. To police protest successfully and continue to improve public confidence the MPS will as ever seek to engage with protest organisers, employ sure-footed tactics on the ground and relentlessly track down those responsible for violence. Full Authority and SOP Committee will be kept updated on future developments. In addition, AC Owens, Assistant Commissioner Central Operations, will engage with and update Authority members through the MPA Civil Liberties Panel.

Counter Terrorism/Specialist Operations update

39. In the early hours of 20 December 2010, 12 Terrorism Act arrest warrants were executed simultaneously in relation to Operation Guava, under the direction of ACSO and the Senior National Co-ordinator for Terrorism. Three of these arrests were affected in the MPS, five in Wales and four in Staffordshire as part of a co-ordinated nationwide phase of executive action to disrupt a significant terrorist plot. On 26 December 2010, nine of the suspects were charged under s.5 Terrorism Act (i.e., committing an act in 'preparatory' to terrorism) along with other charges under the same legislation including some relating to explosives. At the time this report was submitted, all nine suspects remained in custody.

40. A review into the policing arrangements for the visit of His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales and The Duchess of Cornwall to the London Palladium on 9 December 2010 was conducted and a copy was provided to the Home Secretary and Clarence House. The Home Secretary made a statement to the House of Commons on this incident. Work is on-going in relation to the recommendations made within the report, which will not be made public for security reasons.

Value for Money

41. As the Commissioner has reported to previous Full Authority meetings, the complex funding arrangements for policing - government grants, the Mayor’s precept and a variety of partnership funding arrangements - mean it is not yet possible to make final decisions about the impact of budget reductions. It is certain however that the final impact on the MPS budget will be challenging. The MPS must use its people and assets in the most effective way possible and find every saving it can from support services.

42. A great deal of excellent work has already taken place to make such savings - in 2008/09 the MPS saved £72m; in 2009/10 it saved £194m. In 2010/11, the MPS is on course to save a further £315m.

43. The MPS remains committed to continuing to deliver a better policing service for less by streamlining business support and making best use of operational assets. A significant part of this includes making efficiency savings in business support services. The MPS Service Improvement Programme intends to make total accumulated savings up to the end of 2013/14 as follows:

• Catering Modernisation - £35m
• Training Modernisation - £75m
• Transforming HR - £58m
• Rationalisation of Property Estate - £93m
• PSD Modernisation and Contract Rationalisation - £73m
• Forensics - £57m

44. The Commissioner has made clear to all MPS staff that his focus is on protecting operational capability as far as possible. That means delivering a policing service that recognises the importance of both the visible uniformed presence on the street and the specialist policing services the MPS provide - often working largely unseen but affecting people’s lives significantly, such as tackling organised crime, firearms, drugs and child trafficking.

45. Against this uncertain financial background, the Service continues to work with the Authority and the Mayor in developing the 2011-14 Policing London Business Plan within the terms agreed with the Authority. The Draft 2011-14 Policing London Business Plan and the response to the to Mayor’s draft consultation budget will be considered at the 27 January Full Authority.

Olympics

46. The MPS continues to work closely with its partners to ensure that the 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games pass off safely and securely. While the security regime will be clearly visible, it will not be oppressive so allowing the focus to be on the sport that is going to take place.

47. The MPS is pleased that the Government continues to show its commitment to deliver a safe and secure Olympic and Paralympic Games by keeping the £600m available for safety and security. The MPS understands the need to provide value for money and drive down costs but there remain a number of challenges that have the potential to increase costs such as assumptions that are being worked through, unfunded areas that are only now being identified and the 'Millbank effect'. It should also be noted that the overall funding for police forces across the country has now reduced significantly from the time when the £600m Olympic envelope was first agreed and this may also have an impact.

48. The majority of Olympic Safety and Security Programme business cases have now been approved, with most of these being led within the MPS and it is anticipated that most of the outstanding business cases will be approved within the first quarter of 2011.

49. The first meeting of the National Olympic Security Coordination Board took place in November 2010 chaired by Assistant Commissioner Allison, with senior representatives from police and partner agencies attending. The purpose of this board is to provide reassurance that the plans being developed by individual agencies are completely integrated.

50. On 25 November 2010, Security Minister Baroness Neville-Jones launched the Government's Audit and Review of Olympic Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Olympic Security Conference. In broad terms, the Review concluded that security planning remains on track and an effective base for the Games safety and security operations has been established.

TP Development Programme

51. As was presented to SOP Committee on 13 January, the TP Development Programme has four phases: scoping, detailed design, implementation planning and implementation. During the scoping phase the projects gathered evidence against agreed programme design principles. The Programme is now focussed on detailed design, although a number of the projects are progressing towards implementation planning.

52. The key programme milestones to date include:

1. Delivery of high level options and concept of operations for detailed review to Management Board July 2010
2. Development of business case for programme resources September 2010
3. Approved terms of reference for all 15 projects
4. Approved methodology for projects conducting external review (Safer Neighbourhoods and Service Delivery through Front Counters)
5. Agreed approach and model for the response pilot boroughs
6. Approval of business cases for Crime Reporting and Investigation Bureau (CRIB) and Crime and Customer Service Command as part of TPHQ. Both projects are now planning how change will be implemented over the course of 2011 and 2012
7. It is anticipated that detailed design and approved business cases (approval to TP COG level) will have been achieved for a further six projects by late January / February 2011. These are Intelligence, Performance, Criminal Justice - Detention and Wanted Offender Management, Resource Management and IBO to CCC.
8. The programme plan is frequently reviewed in light of business cases, the overall design work, and progress within the projects.

44. A priority for the Programme between now and March 2011 is to finalise the overall design of the future model for policing delivery. Describing how the organisation will deliver it policing services in the future enables the TP Development Programme to better communicate the outcomes of the changes it will implement and supports it to manage implementation and align with other programmes in the MPS.

45. The programme design is not simply about borough or TP resources or structures. It will take into the account the requirements from the public to develop a framework to describe those services that are delivered by operational and support departments. This work is being developed in collaboration with officers and staff in TP, and with other business groups within the MPS and their change programmes.

C. Other organisational & community implications

Equality and Diversity Impact

1. This report is concerned with overall MPS performance, but a number of equalities issues are highlighted, notably measures to encourage the reporting of domestic violence.

2. Throughout all the operational activity detailed in this report, the MPS strives to improve the quality of service provided to victims of hate crime, ensuring that a consistent and effective service is provided to London’s diverse communities; to improve performance against domestic violence, ensuring a consistent level of service across all communities and minimising disproportionality issues; to increase community trust and confidence in the police; to develop a workforce that reflects the diversity of London.

Consideration of MET Forward

3. This report fully reflects how the MPS is delivering the three key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

4. The financial challenges facing the Service are highlighted under Section B of this report.

5. Reports on the progress against the current business plan and budget are submitted on a regular basis to the MPA. As at Period 8 (November 2010) the revenue budget is forecast to overspend by £2.7m (0.1% of budget). The MPS will manage expenditure over the remainder of the financial year to ensure a balanced budget position is achieved.

6. The Capital Programme as at Period 8 (to the end of November) shows year to date total expenditure of £115.6m. This total represents 41.8% of the revised annual budget of £276.3m. The forecast for the year of £230.6m represents an under-spend of £45.7m (16.5% of the revised annual budget).

7. The Draft 2011-14 Budget & Business Plan was considered by the MPA Full Authority on 25th November and was subsequently submitted to the Mayor. The Government Grant Settlement for 2011-15 was announced in December 2010 and the Mayor published his draft consultation budget for 2011/12. In light of the latest information, a revised Policing London Business Plan for 2011/12 has been developed with the Authority and is considered by the 28 January Full Authority.

Legal Implications

8. As this report is a summary of operational performance data, no legal implications arise.

Environmental Implications

9. This report contains no direct environmental implications.

Risk Implications

10. The risks and opportunities are reflected in the content of this report and controls are in place where appropriate.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report author: Michael Debens, Director of Business Strategy, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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