Commissioner’s Report

Report: 5
Date: 27 October 2011
By: Commissioner

Summary

This report summarises recent performance in the MPS, as well as operations and initiatives designed to tackle crime and make London safer.

It is intended to update MPA members and give a high-level, strategic view of the work of the MPS. It highlights the Commissioner’s commitment to total policing - a total war on crime, total care for victims and total professionalism from our staff. It also updates MPA members on our efforts to deliver value for money policing and ensure a safe and secure Olympics.

This is a report on MPS performance against the 2011/12 Key Performance Indicators and their targets as set out in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2011-14. At the time of this report’s submission, data is available for five months of the new 2011/12 financial year (April to August 2011). Comparisons are therefore made against the same period in 2010 (except for Confidence and Satisfaction and KSI results).

At the Full Authority meeting, the Commissioner will be able to update members on performance in September 2011.

A. Recommendations

The report be received.

B. Supporting information

1. In consultation and agreement with the MPA, the number of Key Performance Indicators has been reduced to nine for the new financial year 20011/12, including a Violence and Property portfolio target approach. This approach enables the MPS to form a view of crime in London across a large number of linked offences where the motivation is similar. The portfolios only include crimes where there is a victim, as opposed to state based crimes that are uncovered as a result of police action to enforce the law or prevent disorder - for example drug and public order offences.

Confidence and Satisfaction

2. As the results for these surveys are available quarterly, the confidence and satisfaction rates reported to the last Full Authority meeting are the most recent available.

3. Confidence for the rolling year to June 2011, measured through the question ‘the percentage of people who think the police in their area are doing a good job’ increased by 4% to 67% compared to the same rolling year to June 2010. This increase can be attributed to improvements in all of the four driver areas of confidence; engagement, effectiveness, fair treatment and alleviating ASB with the biggest contribution coming from the engagement and fair treatment drivers. This performance also equals the target for this financial year and is a 1% improvement on the last quarterly data (66% for the RY to March 2011).

4. The most recent satisfaction data, for Q1 of this financial year 2010/11, showed that overall satisfaction was 76%, the same as Q1 in 2009/10 but 1% lower than the last quarterly data (77% for Q4 2010/11) and 2% under the revised target. Satisfaction for white users was 78% and 74% for BME users. The MPS continues to work towards improving our victim satisfaction through the Confidence and Satisfaction Board, having seen successful initiatives in areas such as rape victim satisfaction.

Violent Crime

5. Overall violence offences continue to fall and are 10.4% lower than for the corresponding period last year (6,839 fewer offences from 65,932 to 59,093). Within this reduction, violence with injury offences reduced by 10.2% (3,096 fewer offences from 30,377 to 27,281) over the 5 month period April to August 2011 versus 2010. In addition common assault also reduced by 5.7% (1,100 fewer offences from 19,380 to 18,280) over the same period and harassment reduced by 16.1% (2,396 fewer offences from 14,872 to 12,476).

6. Overall gun crime fell by 10.1 % or 129 offences (from 1,276 to 1,147) over the 5 month period and within those crimes, offences where a gun was discharged fell by 25% (87 fewer offences from 348 to 261).

7. Overall knife crimes over the period April to August 2011 increased by 17.1% (910 additional offences from 5,310 to 6,220 offences). It is pleasing however that offences where a knife was used to injure fell by 3.3% (60 fewer offences from 1,822 to 1,762).

8. There has been one fewer victim of homicides in the five months to August, a total of 53 compared to 54 for the same period last year. The number of victims aged 1-19 went down by three from 10 to 7.

9. However the overall number of victims of Serious Youth Violence increased by 13.1% (373 more offences from 2,849 to 3,222) over the 5 month period. The MPS continue to tackle serious youth violence as a priority.

10. Reported domestic violence offences reduced by 5.2% over the five month period (1,129 fewer reported offences from 21,657 to 20,528) as did racist and religious crimes, down by 22.1% (955 fewer offences from 4,317 to 3,362). In addition homophobic crimes have also decreased significantly by 21.8% (150 fewer offences from 687 to 537 offences).

11. Data in relation to people Killed & Seriously Injured in road traffic collisions lags three months to our financial year data. The monthly average number of KSIs in the 12 months to May 2011 decreased to 213 compared to 253 during the same period last year. This represents a 16% reduction on the previous 12 months and is 4.2% below the 2011/12 average monthly target figure of 222.

Rape Sanction Detections

12. The number of rape sanction detections were down by 69 over the same 5 month period as last year. This remains a key area of performance focus for the MPS. Since the last full Authority Assistant Commissioner Owens has chaired a meeting with key partners and stakeholders agreeing a number of actions and has held a rape specific performance meeting within SCD focussing on the differences in performance across the SCD2 units. Additionally, it has been agreed between the police service and the Crown Prosecution Service that a specific workshop will be run examining actual cases to look at areas for improvement.

13. In the same period there have been some notable successes namely:-

• In August, an illegal taxi tout was sentenced to seven years imprisonment and a SOPO (Sexual Offences Prevention Order). His victim had woken up at home with no recollection of events. Her underwear was missing and her clothing ripped. She reported to the Sapphire team and an investigation was undertaken, including a Haven examination which identified the suspect from DNA. A full investigation enabled his defence of consent to be refuted.
• Also in August, four men were sentenced to a total of 35 years for the rape of a fellow college student. The victim believes that she was drugged and had very limited recollection of events, but had flashbacks to being raped by a number of men. One suspect threatened her against reporting events to anyone. Once identified and arrested, all four claimed that the sexual activity had been consensual. All four were found guilty following a four week trial.
• In July a man was convicted and sentenced to an indeterminate prison sentence for attacking three women working for escort agencies. The offender had attacked the women whilst armed with a knife. Close liaison with the victims (who were all working in the UK illegally) and with sex worker support groups, enabled the successful prosecution of a very dangerous offender who had been targeting vulnerable women.

Property Crime

14. Property crime includes robbery, motor vehicle crime, burglary, shoplifting and criminal damage. The number of overall offences in the five month period April to August 2011 increased by 3.4% (7,533 more offences from 223,893 to 231,426 offences) over the same period in 2010. Behind that increase, the component offence types are showing different trends.

• Criminal damage where there is a victim is down by 9.6% (3,537 fewer offences from 36,950 to 33,413 offences).
• Motor vehicle crime increased slightly by 0.8% (341 additional offences from 42,821 to 43,162 offences).
• Robbery offences have also increased, by 19.8% (2,858 additional offences from 14,439 to 17,297) driven by the increase in personal robbery offences by 20.9% which account for 90% of all robbery offences.
• Theft from a Person, which comprises of snatches and pick pocketing, is up by 20% (2,743 additional offences from 13,729 to 16,472).
• Burglary offences are up by 8.6% (3,087 additional offences from 35,595 to 39,042 offences).
• All other thefts, which make up around 35% of the offences in the property portfolio, increased by 2.6% (2,041 more offences from 79,999 to 82,040 offences). These offences include shoplifting, theft of pedal cycles and motor vehicle interference and tampering.

15. Over 3,700 offences were committed during the disorder in August, including over 400 robberies, and over 1,200 non-residential burglaries.

16. This has had an impact on performance figures for the month of August. Non-residential burglaries and business robberies during the disorder accounted for 8% of both categories FYTD to August. Personal robberies during the disorder account for 11% of the personal robberies in August. Overall crimes in the Property Portfolio were up 4% in August 2011 when compared against August 2010.

Safer Neighbourhoods

17. Boroughs are now implementing the shared supervision model that will deliver the agreed reduction of 150 Safer Neighbourhoods Sergeants. Every ward will still have a named Sergeant although that Sergeant may supervise more than one team.

18. Reductions have been carried out on a pro-rata basis across boroughs, equalling an average reduction of four to six Sergeants per borough. They will continue to lead, supervise and manage the engagement and enforcement activity carried out by the PCs and PCSOs.

Public Order

19. The MPS continues to investigate offences committed during the disorder which took place in August. Operation Withern is investigating over 3,700 offences that took place in over 1,200 locations. The team is working its way through approximately 20,000 hours of CCTV footage.

20. As of 10 October, the MPS had made 2,819 arrests, resulting in 1,700 charges. These numbers will continue to increase as Operation Withern carry out their investigation.

21. As reported at the last meeting and circulated in subsequent briefing notes the MPS Strategic Review into the operational response to the disorder (Operation Kirkin) is well underway. At report detailing our interim findings will be available in mid-November and the final report outlining findings and recommendations will be published by 24 December 2011.

Delivering a safe and secure Olympics

22. The Olympic Safety and Security Test and Exercise Team held the first Command Post Exercise in late September 2011 which involved all Domains within the Games architecture. The 48 hour event saw domains exercised through core business and low level incidents, focusing specifically around the reporting and briefing processes set out within the Command, Control and Communication Concept of Operations. A full and comprehensive ‘lessons learnt’ process is currently underway and will assist in shaping the current planning for the second Command Post Exercise (Black Chariot), to take place 6 - 8 December.

23. Once the Operation Kirkin Strategic Review Team published its final report by 24 December 2011, an assessment will be made regarding the need to increase Olympic resources for next year. Early modelling is already under way both in terms of resourcing and logistical issues.

24. The MPS Emergency Preparedness OCU (CO3) are leading on MPS Organisational Delivery during the Games, and provided an update on Business Continuity issues and maintenance of Core Functions to the MPS Olympic and Paralympic Strategic Co-ordination Meeting (OSCM) on 16 September 2011. We are ensuring that the MPS remains effective during the Games period and ensuring that all OCU and business group continuity plans remain fit-for-purpose, particularly in relation to transport routes for access to MPS buildings. Other forces are also focusing on these issues but it is recognised that the major transport impacts will be felt in London.

25. The Volume Crime Project has presented a paper on Criminal Justice issues during Games time which has been supported by the ‘Judiciary Olympics Working Group’. The paper sets out areas of consideration for criminal justice partners and policing during the Games, including implications of court abstractions and highlighting the agreement in relation to Jury Service warnings.

26. The International Olympic Committee’s Coordination Commission (CoCom) visited London in early October. The update on security planning, which focused on venue security and how the police are responding to lessons learnt during the riots, was delivered by AC Allison, Robert Raine of the Home Office and Ian Johnston of LOCOG. The presentation was well received and no significant issues were raised. Security did not feature prominently at the post inspection press conference, but when asked, the IOC confirmed their ongoing confidence in security preparations. The CoCom visit will take place on 28-30 March 2012.

Better for less

27. The MPS is committed to delivering excellent policing whilst ensuring it delivers value for money within the resources available to it.

28. To do that the MPS is reducing inanimate cost and delivering a more effective business and operational model including:

• Undertaking process improvement activity.
• Sharing services within and across the MPS.
• Exploring a range of outsourcing and joint ventures.
• Only then reducing operational officers and PCSOs.

29. The Policing London Business Plan (PLPB) 2011-14 has identified significant savings that will balance the budget for 2011/12, but additional economies need to be found for 2012/12 and 2013/14. The scale of the challenge is set out in the table below:

30. About three quarters of the MPS’s revenue expenditure is on pay. Pending decisions on further savings in future years, the approved establishment strength as reflected in the PLBP is set out in the table below:

31. The MPS are currently forecasting an officer strength of 31,800 at 31 March 2012. In addition, there is expected to be 430 PCSO/MSC in training who will be attested in the first quarter of 2012/13. Under our previous training model these recruits would have been attested, and included in our officer strength before they started their training. These establishments will change as 2012-15 budget proposals are finalised.

32. Action underway to achieve savings include:

• Major change programmes with appropriate corporate infrastructure to track progress and identify and manage interdependencies and risk.
• Early departure schemes which use earmarked reserves, established for this purpose.
• Star chambers to monitor and control staff vacancies and officer deployment.
• Amended financial monitoring to manage and control capital and revenue budgets more effectively, with increased focus on major change programmes.

33. The Service is however now facing additional significant budget pressures as a result of the August public disorder in London (Operation Kirkin), the ongoing police inquiry (Operation Withern) and potential riot damage costs. The additional cost of Operations Kirkin and Withern are estimated at some £71m and there may be liabilities from the Riot Damages Act of anywhere between £200m and £300m.

34. Development of the 2012-2015 Policing London Business Plan is already underway. Business Group budget scrutiny by the MPA took place throughout September and October.

35. The 2012-15 draft budget submission will be presented to the joint MPA SOP/F&R meeting on 17 November for consideration prior to submission to the Mayor on 18 November, in line with the Mayor’s budget guidance the MPA/MPS Shared Services submission was given to the Mayor on 30 September.

36. The risks to achieving the necessary savings are as follows:

• The non-delivery of major change programmes and/or double counting of savings. The budget includes some resilience to cover such costs.
• The costs of the August disorder and related claims under the Riot Damages Act.
• The additional pressures placed on the service both operationally and financially e.g. Royal Wedding, State Visits, increased public order/protest events, withdrawal of partnership funding.
• The Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act, which will result in additional in-year costs for which there is no specific provision.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Equality and Diversity Impact

1. This report is concerned with overall MPS performance, but a number of equalities issues are highlighted, notably measures to encourage the reporting of domestic violence.

2. Throughout all the operational activity detailed in this report, the MPS strives to improve the quality of service provided to victims of hate crime, ensuring that a consistent and effective service is provided to London’s diverse communities; to improve performance against domestic violence, ensuring a consistent level of service across all communities and minimising disproportionality issues; to increase community trust and confidence in the police; to develop a workforce that reflects the diversity of London.

Consideration of MET Forward

3. This report fully reflects how the MPS is delivering the three key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

4. The financial challenges facing the Service are highlighted under the ‘Better for Less’ section of this report.

5. Reports on the progress against the current business plan and budget are submitted on a regular basis to the MPA.

6. The monitoring report as at period 5 (August 2011) shows the forecast revenue overspend for the 2011/12 financial year to be £2.1m (0.1% of budget) before any account is taken of the budget resilience provision of £25.1m or the £71m forecast additional costs of Operations Kirkin and Withern. The Authority is working with the Home Office to deal with significant claims under the Riot Damages Act. These claims are expected to be between £200m and £300m. The current planning assumption is that these costs will be met by the Government. If this proves not to be the case, then further pressure will be put on MPA/MPS resources.

7. In addition there are a number of other potential pressures to be managed which have not been included in this forecast. These include early departures, discretionary pension costs, change programmes and public order events. The Service’s aim remains, if possible, to retain the budget resilience provision in order to support the delivery of major change programmes in 2012/13 and beyond.

8. Capital expenditure at the end of August 2011 is £63.2m which represents 33.9% of the Programme budget. Progress will be closely monitored to ensure expenditure remains within budget.

9. As a significant proportion of our costs are people related, in making our business and operational support model as lean as possible like many other organisations the MPS have to reduce the number of staff we have working in some areas. The MPS remains committed to avoiding compulsory redundancy as far as possible and we will continue to work closely with our staff and the trade union side in delivering this programme of change. Since November 2010 the Service has run a number of focused Early Departure Schemes and, through these schemes, 1,020 members of staff have chosen to leave the service under a voluntary early departure package.

Legal Implications

10. As this report is a summary of operational performance data, no legal implications arise.

Environmental Implications

11. This report contains no direct environmental implications.

Risk Implications

12. The risks and opportunities are reflected in the content of this report and controls are in place where appropriate.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report authors: Colin Barker, Commissioner’s Private Office, MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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