Commissioner’s Report

Report: 6
Date: 24 November 2011
By: Commissioner

Summary

This report summarises recent performance in the MPS, as well as operations and initiatives designed to tackle crime and make London safer.

It is to update MPA members and give a high-level, strategic view of the work of the MPS. It highlights the Commissioner’s commitment to total policing - a total war on crime, total care for victims and total professionalism from our staff. It also updates MPA members on our efforts to deliver value for money policing and ensure a safe and secure Olympics.

This is a report on MPS performance against the 2011/12 Key Performance Indicators and their targets as set out in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2011-14. At the time of this report’s submission, data is available for six months of the 2011/12 financial year (April to September 2011). Comparisons are therefore made against the same period in 2010 (except for Confidence and Satisfaction and KSI results) and against some longer term and MSF comparisons to add context around the current performance levels of the MPS.

At the Full Authority meeting, the Commissioner will be able to update members on performance in October 2011.

A. Recommendations

The report be received.

B. Supporting information

1. In consultation and agreement with the MPA, the number of Key Performance Indicators has been reduced to nine for the financial year 20011/12, including a Violence and Property portfolio target approach. This approach enables the MPS to form a view of crime in London across a large number of linked offences where the motivation is similar. The portfolios only include crimes where there is a victim, as opposed to state based crimes that are uncovered as a result of police action to enforce the law or prevent disorder - for example drug and public order offences.

Confidence and Satisfaction

2. The latest confidence data shows that confidence in local policing for the rolling year to September 2011, measured through the question ‘the percentage of people who think the police in their area are doing a good job’ stands at 66%. This is 1% above the same period as last year (April 2010 to September 2010 which stood at 65%) but is also 1% lower than the 2010/11 FY target of 67%.

3. The latest BCS data from June 2011 shows that the MPS is ranked top of its MSF grouping and as figure 1 shows, MPS confidence has improved significantly from the levels experienced in 2006 and 2007 which were around the mid 50 percentiles.

Figure 1: Good job confidence results, rolling year (please see attached)

4. On the other hand the MPS still has significant work to do to improve victim satisfaction. The overall user satisfaction rate for the rolling 12 months to September 2011 is 75.3% which is below the 2010/11 FY target of 78% and the rate of 77.0% for the same period last year. The decline in the rate can be attributed to two main factors:

•  The change in the survey company at quarter 4 of 2010/11 - The new company has made more effort to contact hard-to-reach groups with significantly more foreign language interviews and consequently current results are felt to be more representative of user satisfaction.
•  A decrease in burglary and vehicle crime victim satisfaction with police actions, primarily driven by a decrease in burglary packs being provided to victims.

5. The rate of user satisfaction for white victims for the 12 months to September 2011 is 78.9% vs. a rate of 71.4% for BME victims. The MPS‘s goal is to increase the satisfaction of all users, and acknowledges that significant work is required to achieve this. The MPS currently sit 43 out of 43 Home Office Forces nationally, and fourth out of four in our Most Similar Group (MSG) for overall satisfaction as figure 2 demonstrates.

Figure 2: MSF overall victim satisfaction scores, rolling year data (please see attached)

6. TP has developed an action plan to deliver the Commissioner’s stated intention of providing total care for victims of crime. The plan will aim to provide an improved and consistent service across the 32 Boroughs, making better use of technology to improve contact with victims. Key activities include:

• The introduction of victim care cards for every victim of crime. These cards help MPS officers to improve the standard of their initial investigation and to provide much more consistency in service across London's 32 Boroughs. Victims will be able to see the MPS service promise, what the next steps are, and will know how to contact us with more information or to make enquiries about their crime. MPS officers will be able to better manage expectations of victims.
•  The transformation of Telephone Investigation Bureaus. The new centralised unit is already using corporate scripts that ensure a higher standard of service - delivering an effective investigation that is delivered with empathy to victims of crime.
•  Improved information and contact with victims of crime. The MPS is increasing the transparency of policing and improving the quality of contact with victims of volume crimes who are 'screened out'. The MPS has improved the letter victims receive and intend to complement it by speaking to every such victim whose crime cannot be further investigated due to a lack of evidence. The MPS will cease to use the terms 'screened in' and 'screened out'.
•  Empowering victims. Victims whose crimes are transferred to CID or other investigating officers will be given much more say on how and when they are contacted by police. Officers will be expected to exceed the minimum standards of the Victims' Code of Practice, making better use of the internet, email and SMS. Officers will be instructed to explain more clearly how they investigate so that victims understand and their expectations are managed. In the longer term, the MPS aims to introduce an online crime tracking function that will enable victims to request an update safely and securely over the internet at any time of day.

Violence Offences

7. Overall violence offences continue to fall and are 9.9% lower than for the corresponding period last year (7,734 fewer offences from 77,940 to 70,206). Within this reduction, violence with injury offences reduced by 9.7% (3,478 fewer offences from 35,817 to 32,339) over the 6 month period April to September 2011 versus 2010. In addition common assault also reduced by 5.6% (1,293 fewer offences from 23,026 to 21,733) over the same period and harassment reduced by 15.4% (2,715 fewer offences from 17,577 to 14,862).

8. Over the longer term the MPS has made considerable progress in tackling violent crime as figures 3, 4 and 5 demonstrate. Violence with Injury offences have dropped significantly since 2007 (this is as far back as data recording goes under this VWI classification), Common Assaults have declined slightly since new crime classifications were introduced in 2005 and the number of harassment offences have remained stable since their peak in 2005 which followed seven years of increases.

Figure 3: Annual levels of Violence with Injury offences (please see attached)

Figure 4: Annual levels of Common Assaults (please see attached)

Figure 5: Annual levels of Harassment offences (please see attached)

9. In addition overall gun crime also fell by 14.9% or 225 offences (from 1,513 to 1,288) over the 6 month period and within those crimes, offences where a gun was discharged fell by 22.5% (92 fewer offences from 409 to 317). This supports a reduction in the number of gun offences the capital has seen over the last 3 years (see figure 6 below) and is a testament to the hard work the MPS has undertaken in raising public awareness and working with the public to tackle this serious issue. This work will continue.

10. London has experienced an increase in knife crime offences over the last three years which has continued in 2011, as shown in figure 7. Knife crimes over the period April to September 2011 increased by 15.1% (959 additional offences from 6,356 to 7,315 offences) and offences are now almost one fifth higher than 2009 levels. The most serious knife crime offences have not increased over the last three years, for instance those where a knife was used to injure, which fell by 1.5% (33 fewer offences from 2,160 to 2,127) over the period April to September 2011. Knife crime remains a serious issue and the MPS continues to work hard with the public and partners to raise awareness and are committed to the pursuit and punishment of those who carry knives.

Figure 6: Annual levels of Gun Crime (please see attached)

Figure 7: Annual levels of Knife Crime (please see attached)

11. Reported domestic violence offences reduced by 5.3% over the six month period (1,349 fewer reported offences from 25,536 to 24,187) as did racist and religious crimes, down by 20.3% (1,029 fewer offences from 5,069 to 4,040). In addition homophobic crimes have also decreased significantly by 20.4% (164 fewer offences from 804 to 640 offences).

12. There have been two fewer victims of homicide in the six months to September, a total of 61 compared to 63 for the same period last year. The number of victims aged 1-19 went down by four from 12 to 8. The MPS has made significant strides in reducing homicide levels over the years as figure 8 demonstrates; the annual rate is now almost 40% lower than 2003 levels.

Figure 8: Annual levels of Homicide (please see attached)

13. However the overall number of victims of Serious Youth Violence increased by 9.5% (328 more offences from 3,435 to 3,763) over the 6 month period. Tackling Serious Youth Violence will remain a priority for the MPS.

KSI

14. Data in relation to people Killed & Seriously Injured in road traffic collisions lags three months to the financial year data reported elsewhere in this report. The monthly average number of KSIs in the 12 months to June 2011 decreased to 211 compared to 251 during the same period last year. This represents a 16% reduction on the previous 12 months and is 5% below the 2011/12 average monthly target figure of 222.

15. In the first six months of 2011/12, 81 people were killed in road traffic collisions compared to 62 last year and 93 in 2009/10.

16. Resources and focused operations continue to be committed to try and reduce KSIs. During September there were 39 traffic proactive operations which included 7 ‘Exchanging Places’ days for cyclists, 22 rider skill days for motorcyclists attended by 146 riders, and an operation on the M25 targeting hazardous goods vehicles. Operations Shavor (criminality and illegal coaches/drivers on the international coach network terminating at Victoria Coach), Stammtisch (truckers surgery for drivers to speak to police in confidence), and the pro-active checks on commercial vehicles at the Olympic site are continuing.

17. Safety camera enforcement activities which are concentrated at vehicle collision ‘hot spots’, are an important element of the MPS’ campaign to reduce KSIs. The target for 2011/12 is for a monthly average of 8,333 Notices of Intended Prosecution (NIPs) to be issued with at least a 65% positive outturn rate (depending on the severity of the offence - either attendance at a safety awareness course, payment of the fixed penalty or issue of a summons). In the first six months of 2011/12 the monthly average was 8,405. The positive outcome rate is 64%. The drop since last month (67%) is due to a reduction in summonses because of problems securing court dates for early 2012 however this problem has now been resolved.

Rape Sanction Detections

18. The number of rape sanction detections were down by 60 over the same six month period as last year (319 detections last year against 259 for this financial year). At the same time the number of recorded rapes has increased by 151 (9.5%) so that the total for the FYTD is 1,742.

19. The November SOP Committee meeting received a report on rape SDs which outlined the MPS approach and actions being undertaken to tackle the issue. This includes:

• SCD/CPS case tracking and failed case reviews to be undertaken from November 2011.
•  Management Information support to be provided to SCD2 to help identify and monitor more closely those activities which deliver a broader range of outcomes, in addition to sanctioned detections.
•  A review by the Homicide Command of unsolved SCD2 rapes reported in September 2011 to identify issues and help inform the future performance regime.

Property Crime

20. Property crime includes robbery, motor vehicle crime, burglary, shoplifting and criminal damage. The number of overall offences in the six month period April to September 2011 increased by 1.7% (4,497 more offences from 268,132 to 272,629 offences) over the same period in 2010. Behind that increase, the component offence types are showing different trends.

• Criminal damage where there is a victim is down by 10.1% (4,415 fewer offences from 43,569 to 39,154 offences).
• Motor vehicle crime is also down slightly by 0.4% (205 fewer offences from 51,493 to 51,288 offences).
• Robbery offences have increased, by 16.8% (2,879 additional offences from 17,163 to 20,042) driven by the increase in personal robbery offences by 18.1% which accounts for over 90% of all robbery offences.
• Theft from a Person, which comprises of snatches and pick pocketing, is up by 17.8% (2,945 additional offences from 16,536 to 19,481).
• Burglary offences are up by 6.3% (2,741 additional offences from 43,390 to 46,131 offences).
• All other thefts, which make up around 35% of the offences in the property portfolio, increased slightly by 0.6% (552 more offences from 95,981 to 96,533 offences). These offences include shoplifting, theft of pedal cycles and motor vehicle interference and tampering.

21. As figure 9 shows below, the MPS has made significant strides in the last decade to reduce the majority of the component parts of property crime - Motor Vehicle crimes are down approximately 42% on the levels experienced in 2002, Criminal Damage is down almost 50% over the same period and Burglary has reduced steadily since 1999.

22. The MPS has experienced an increase in property offences since January 2010 (figure 10) driven by increases in robbery, theft from a person and burglary. This issue is being addressed through targeted operations such as Operation Target and Operation Autumn nights.

Figure 9: Annual levels of the component parts of Property Crime (please see attached)

Figure 10: Annual property crime levels (please see attached)

Public Order

23. The MPS continues to investigate offences committed during the disorder which took place in August. Operation Withern is investigating over 3,700 offences that took place in over 1,200 locations. The team is working its way through approximately 20,000 hours of CCTV footage.

24. At the time this report was submitted, the MPS had made in excess of 3,000 arrests, resulting in over 1,800 charges. These numbers will continue to increase as Operation Withern carry out their investigation.

25. The MPS Strategic Review into the operational response to the disorder (Operation Kirkin) continues. The interim findings will be made available to MPA Members at the end of November and the final report outlining findings and recommendations will be published by 24 December 2011.

Delivering a Safe and Secure Olympics

26. The Commissioner and Management Board were given a full morning briefing on MPS planning for the Olympics on 28 October, with presentations from AC Allison as National Olympic Security Coordinator (NOSC), AC Dick (ACSO) and Commander Broadhurst, Gold London. Plans are on track with much achieved, but plenty more still to do.

27. The International Liaison Unit (ILU) was the second Olympic Project to transition to an operational state. The ILU hosted a series of conferences in October, including visits from the Australian Federal Police, the Russian Ministry of Interior, the French Prime Ministerial Special Representative and a US Congress visit. The next International Safety and Security Conference takes place on 21 and 22 November, with 126 countries sending delegates.

28. The Olympic Planning Committee (OPC) commenced the Operation Almus 4 resource test at the end of October, with Police Forces reporting back by 11 November. This is the final test of availability of officers before the mutual aid operational request is made in March 2012. The OPC is currently requesting specific specialist officer details and will move to a full request for names in March 2012.

29. The first Regional Torch Gold Commanders planning seminar was held to discuss the development of a consistent command and control process for the Olympic Torch Relay. Gold Commanders were asked to oversee the development of regional operational plans for submission to OPC by 16 December to allow an acceptable level of assurance. A further Regional Golds’ Torch Relay workshop and test event are scheduled for January.

30. The second of three NPIA Olympic e-learning awareness packages has now been launched to the MPS and all other UK Police Forces to encourage and promote a consistent and coherent approach to the national safety and security operation for the Games. This latest package aims to deliver awareness training to all police officers and staff, giving details of the safety and security operation for the London Olympics and information on the main security threats: including terrorism, public order, domestic extremism and serious and organised crime. The third package, due next year, is for those in Olympic-specific roles.

31. Following the first Olympic Command Post Exercise (CPX) in September, a second one - Exercise Black Chariot - is planned for 6-8 December. There will be a counter terrorism element, testing working arrangements between the National Olympic Security Coordinator (NOSC) and ACSO. In preparation for this, there has been close liaison between the two commands, including a two day Hydra exercise at Bramshill on 7-8 November.

Better for Less

32. The MPS is committed to delivering excellent policing whilst ensuring it delivers value for money within the resources available to it.

33. To do that the MPS is reducing inanimate cost and delivering a more effective business and operational model including:

• Undertaking process improvement activity.
• Sharing services within the MPS and with other bodies.
• Exploring a range of outsourcing and joint ventures.
• Only then reducing operational officers and PCSOs.

34. The Policing London Business Plan (PLPB) 2011-14 has identified significant savings that will balance the budget for 2011/12, but additional economies need to be found for 2012/12 and 2013/14. The scale of the challenge is set out in the table below:

35. About three quarters of the MPS’s revenue expenditure is on pay. Pending decisions on further savings in future years, the approved establishment strength as reflected in the PLBP is set out in the table below:

36. An officer strength of 32,320 is currently forecasted at 31 March 2012. This is, however, dependent on future funding levels and the Service’s ability to complete a number of recruitment and training programmes during the remainder of this year. These establishments will change as 2012-15 budget proposals are finalised.

37. Action underway to achieve savings include:

• Major change programmes with appropriate corporate infrastructure to track progress and identify and manage interdependencies and risk.
• Early departure schemes which use earmarked reserves, established for this purpose.
• Star chambers to monitor and control staff vacancies and officer deployment.
• Amended financial monitoring to manage and control capital and revenue budgets more effectively, with increased focus on major change programmes.

38. The Service is however now facing additional significant budget pressures as a result of the August public disorder in London (Operation Kirkin), the ongoing police inquiry (Operation Withern) and potential riot damage costs. The additional cost of Operations Kirkin and Withern are estimated at some £90m and there may be liabilities from the Riot Damages Act of approximately £300m.

39. Development of the 2012-2015 Policing London Business Plan has been ongoing since April. Business Group budget scrutiny by the MPA took place throughout September and October.

40. The 2012-15 draft budget submission was presented to the joint MPA SOP/F&R meeting on 17 November for consideration and was subsequently submitted to the Mayor on 18 November, in line with the Mayor’s budget guidance. There are still significant budget gaps in all three years of the plan. The MPA/MPS Shared Services submission was given to the Mayor on 30 September.

41. The risks to achieving the necessary savings are as follows:

• The non-delivery of major change programmes and/or double counting of savings. The budget includes some resilience to cover such costs.
• The costs of the August disorder and related claims under the Riot Damages Act.
• The additional pressures placed on the service both operationally and financially e.g. Royal Wedding, State Visits, increased public order/protest events, withdrawal of partnership funding.
• The Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act, which will result in additional in-year costs for which there is no specific provision.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Equality and Diversity Impact

1. Throughout all the operational activity detailed in this report, the MPS strives to improve the quality of service provided to victims of hate crime, ensuring that a consistent and effective service is provided to London’s diverse communities; to improve performance against domestic violence, ensuring a consistent level of service across all communities and minimising disproportionality issues; to increase community trust and confidence in the police; to develop a workforce that reflects the diversity of London.

Consideration of MET Forward

2. This report fully reflects how the MPS is delivering the three key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

3. The financial challenges facing the Service are highlighted under the ‘Better for Less’ section of this report.

4. Reports on the progress against the current business plan and budget are submitted on a regular basis to the MPA.

5. The monitoring report as at period 6 (September 2011) shows the forecast revenue underspend for the 2011/12 financial year to be £5.7m (0.2% of budget) before any account is taken of the budget resilience provision of £25.1m or the £90m forecast additional costs of Operations Kirkin and Withern. The Authority is working with the Home Office to deal with significant claims under the Riot Damages Act. These claims are expected to be approximately £300m. The current planning assumption is that these costs will be met by the Government. If this proves not to be the case, then further pressure will be put on MPA/MPS resources.

6. In addition there are a number of other potential pressures to be managed which have not been included in this forecast. These include early departures, discretionary pension costs, change programmes and public order events. The Service’s aim remains, if possible, to retain the budget resilience provision in order to support the delivery of major change programmes in 2012/13 and beyond.

7. Capital expenditure at the end of September 2011 is £71.9m which represents 38.4% of the Programme budget. Progress will be closely monitored to ensure expenditure remains within budget.

8. As a significant proportion of costs are people related, in making the business and operational support model as lean as possible, like many other organisations the MPS is having to reduce the number of staff it has working in some areas. The MPS remains committed to avoiding compulsory redundancy as far as possible and will continue to work closely with staff and trade unions in delivering this programme of change. Since November 2010 the Service has run a number of focused Early Departure Schemes and, through these schemes, 1,020 members of staff have chosen to leave the service under a voluntary early departure package.

Legal Implications

9. As this report is a summary of operational performance data, no legal implications arise.

Environmental Implications

10. This report contains no direct environmental implications.

Risk Implications

11. The risks and opportunities are reflected in the content of this report and controls are in place where appropriate.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report authors: Colin Barker, Commissioner’s Private Office, MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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