Headline performance report - 12 months to April 2009

Report: 5
Date: 9 July 2009
By: Acting Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This report provides an overview of progress against targets set for Critical Performance Areas and other corporate measures featured in the Policing London 2009 – 2012 Business Plan.

A. Recommendation

That

1. members note the latest performance against the Policing Plan and the MPS’ activities underway to address them; and
2. a further report be brought to the September meeting of this Committee on steps being taken to close the satisfaction gap between white and Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) victims of crime.

B. Supporting information

Introduction

1. This report provides an update on progress against our key areas of performance. The 2009/12 Policing London Business Plan highlights how the MPS, supported by the MPA, will deliver the two key outcomes of improved safety and improved public confidence (along with ensuring that we do so efficiently and with a clear focus on productivity). Our business plan, underpinned by the 5Ps, has been developed to sustain the crime reduction that has been achieved over the last ten years and, at the same time, increase public trust and confidence in the MPS.

2. There are a number of initiatives already underway to increase the public’s feeling of safety and to provide more visibility on our streets, including single patrolling and the Town Centre presence project (more detail on which is included below). It is clear that sustained improvement around peoples’ experience of their interaction with the police will have a positive impact on confidence in the longer term. So we are also increasing our focus on how we deliver our services and we will therefore be monitoring closely our performance in this area (notably against the Policing Pledge).

3. We are continuously examining whether we are providing value for money in the services that are being delivered and whether they can be done more cost effectively. The Service Improvement Plan captures some of the major projects at a corporate level and is helping to drive down costs. Recent activity includes the introduction of Virtual Courts which reduce the time between charge and first hearing and crucially, bring more offenders to justice.

4. Our performance approach involves managing effort across all these areas of work but, as the Commissioner recently highlighted to the Authority, we are particularly focused on three aspects of current performance that could become cause for concern: Burglary, Business Crime and Serious Violence. The rest of this paper consists of an account of how we are proactively tackling those issues, followed by a brief analysis of our performance on those CPIs assessed as ‘Red’.

Technical note

5. This report reflects performance in the rolling year to May 2009 and focuses on the Critical Performance areas highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1) and other Corporate Policing Plan indicators (Appendix 2).

6. Rolling 12-month figures are used as these help smooth distortions attributable to seasonal factors. Performance is shown against the 2009/10 targets and assessed using a red, amber or green traffic light.

• ‘Green’ status indicates performance on or above target.
• #8216;Amber’ status indicates performance marginally below target.
• #8216;Red’ status indicates exceptions where performance is well below target and appears at risk unless remedial action is taken.

Key Current Performance Focus

Burglary

7. Residential burglary shows an increase of nearly 10% for April and May 2009 compared with the corresponding period in 2008. The MPS current sanction detection performance is 11.1%, compared with 14.6% the average being achieved by the forces in our ‘Most Similar Forces’ (MSF). Much of the upward pressure on burglary has been caused by the impact of Organised Criminal Networks and the theft of high value cars, and there may be links with the current economic recession.

8. We are determined that the successes of recent years in bringing burglary to historical lows should continue. We have therefore commenced an overarching burglary initiative, under the familiar Operation Bumblebee name, aiming to reduce burglary by 2.2%, bring more offenders to justice (measured through a sanction detection rate of 16%) and satisfy more victims, increasing from the current burglary victim satisfaction rate of 83%. The plan includes a range of operational activity, for example, Operation Eastmund targeting cross border burglaries between London and Essex, and Operation Icepick covering three boroughs in North East London.

9. Operation Bumblebee includes the following core elements:

• targeted operations against the most prolific burglars in London, involving a range of overt and covert tactics;
• enhanced use of financial investigation techniques against burglars and those who handle stolen goods;
• a continuing focus on organised criminal enterprises engaged in burglary;
• increased forensic interventions and maximising the evidential use of forensic product in conjunction with the CPS;
• using our telecommunications capability to target the 15% of burglaries in which mobile phones are stolen; and
• prevention activity in burglary ‘hotspots’ through the problem solving capability of our Safer Neighbourhood Teams.

10. This activity is underway but we will also undertake a major public awareness campaign in the autumn, timed to address the seasonal increase in burglary at that time.

11. The action plan is being proactively led through the corporate tasking arrangement where a range of interventions are receiving Met wide support to arrest and charge offenders. Early successes are being seen in the deployment of surveillance asset for this task and in the focussing of attention on organised crime groups who are committing burglary with the sole purposes of stealing vehicles; this specific aspect is up 56.3% in this financial year and is therefore receiving significant attention. There are currently seven MPS operations addressing this area specifically.

12. To date in 2009/10 a total of £242K has been allocated for additional burglary operations, which is estimated to rise to around £1 million by the end of the financial year.

Business Crime

13. The MPS Performance Board has been monitoring crime trends closely in case of impacts from the economic downturn. As previously reported to the MPA Full Authority business crime performance has been worsening with an 11.2% rise [12,066 offences] over the last 12 months. The most significant recent rises relate to Shoplifting, for which the last three months have been the worst since 2002, and Business Robbery. A significant amount of activity is underway to address these rises.

14. The Town Centre initiative is a corporate approach to policing London’s priority town centre areas addressing commercial hours and night-time economy issues with the aim of reducing crime, ASB and most serious violence through increased police presence. As part of the process, all Boroughs identified and prioritised the geographic footprints with the highest concentrations of most serious violence, robbery and CAD calls.

15. Teams will be created in 32 town centres over the course of the next two years in a phased quarterly roll-out. As part of the Town Centre plan, boroughs are being asked to develop Business Key Individual Networks. The project team will also use learning from the Business Engagement project and City of London Police ‘Business Policing Model’ to enhance Town Centre performance. This will mean that, where local businesses have identified business crimes, such as shoplifting, as an issue the local Town Centre Team will be required to prioritise that locally. Tailored responses might include additional patrols at key times of day, using Special Constables from within the business to patrol in areas that they know, crime prevention advice for local shopkeepers etc.

16. However, we recognise that volume business crime is not the only issue concerning London’s business community and so we are complementing this approach with other targeted operations. For example, Operation Betguard was introduced in September 2008, to tackle a rise in betting shop robberies. As part of this initiative, SNTs are tasked to visit betting shops on a regular basis to develop relationships, deliver basic crime prevention advice, as agreed by the industry, and provide reassurance to staff and customers.

17. Similarly, Operation Vanguard was introduced to tackle the unprecedented rise in Cash in Transit (CIT) criminality and reports of suspicious activity around CIT services. It is primarily a preventative operation but is also able to gather intelligence and evidence relating to CIT related criminality. The operation involves the use of marked police cars to provide high visibility patrols in main shopping and banking areas and to support CIT services in priority Boroughs.

Serious Violence

18. Most Serious Violence (MSV) and Assault with Injury (AWI) combined reduced by 1.6% [1,170 offences] in the 12 months to May 2009 compared with the year to May 2008. However, in April and May there was an increase of 4.7% [592 offences] compared with the equivalent period in 2008. We are monitoring the situation closely in order to understand whether an increasing trend is emerging rather than a short term fluctuation. Initial analysis indicates that the rise in April and May was concentrated amongst victims aged 20-49. There was contrasting good news for this two month comparison period: Serious Youth Violence was down 14.4% [177 fewer victims], Knife Crime was down 1.6% [34 fewer crimes] and Homicide was down by 12 offences.

19. A significant amount of activity is planned to maintain the MPS focus on serious violence. Operation Verrano is an umbrella operation running from 6 July 2009 to 4 October 2009 which will develop an integrated response to serious violence in public spaces. It will draw together planned deployments under Operation Blunt 2 (Serious Youth Violence and knives), Operation Razorback (pre-carnival disruption), Operation Neon (armed response with Automatic Number Plate Recognition), Operation Argon (armed response to licensed premises) and Operation Essen (intelligence-led interventions for gun crime reduction) and will be supported by a central intelligence cell.

20. Work is ongoing to identify the key locations driving volume MSV/AWI in the night-time economy on Friday and Saturday nights. Additional support from the Home Office Tackling Knives Action Plan (TKAP) is intended to allow further capability to increase the street presence in these localities using resources from TOCU, CO14 and Boroughs.

21. This work will be supported by Operation Hawk, which is (delivered as part of Operation Blunt 2) focused on the disruption of violent street gangs. A proof of concept operation took place on 11 June to assess the impact of large scale, coordinated enforcement. Learning has been captured and will be used to inform ongoing operations. A similar operation is intended in October as part of plans to prevent any escalation of serious youth violence across the mid-autumn risk period. On 11 June, several hundred addresses were searched in coordinated raids across London. This involved over 1,200 officers, including those from Boroughs, Central Operations and Specialist Crime Directorate. Some 259 people were arrested for a range of violent crimes, including robbery, violent disorder and serious assault. Seizures included 5 firearms, 8 dangerous dogs, over £200,000 in cash and significant quantities of controlled drugs. Some 85 people have been charged to date, and investigations are ongoing. It is anticipated that the majority of those arrested will face prosecution.

Critical Performance Areas

22. The following paragraphs report performance by exception against those indicators showing a red status in order to focus attention on those areas where most work is needed to reach target level.

Comparison of satisfaction of white and BME victims with respect to overall service

23. Within the MPS, the User Satisfaction Survey is the primary measure of satisfaction with the police service. On an annual basis, over 18,000 victims are interviewed about the service they receive from the MPS, with approximately 30% of these BME. The current satisfaction 'gap' between white and BME victims stands at 4.7% (YE FY 2008/09), close to the national average of 5.8%. This gap has remained largely the same as last year (YE FY 2007/08 was 4.8%).

24. A full update on the satisfaction gap was presented in a separate report to the April 2009 meeting of the Strategic and Operational Policing Committee. The following summarises some of the themes from this report explaining the gap:

• Prior opinion of the police is a key element in satisfaction with the service. Younger victims report having a lower prior opinion of police than older victims.
• Age profile of victims: Age is not equally distributed between BME and white victims of burglary, with the white group containing a higher proportion of older victims. Older victims express higher levels of satisfaction than younger victims.
• Method of contact differs across victim groups with BME victims more likely to report their incident to police via 999 or Front Counters. Using the emergency number to report an incident may raise expectations around level of service that will be provided.
• Deprivation: Survey results suggest victim satisfaction is linked to affluence, with more deprived groups reporting lower levels of satisfaction. This has a disproportionate effect on certain BME groups.

25. These different aspects of satisfaction (ease of contact, police actions, keeping victims informed of case progress, and police treatment), show that the gap is largest in relation to police actions and treatment (both of which are at similar levels to the overall satisfaction gap). The satisfaction gap in relation to keeping victims informed has reduced from 6% points in 2007/08 to 2% points in 2008/09 – this narrowing of the gap (by around 4% points) is larger than the statistical margin of error, and therefore indicates a real improvement.

26. In terms of crime types, we know that the widest satisfaction gaps are in relation to victims of burglary and vehicle crime (both at 7% points). The gap in relation to burglary victims has reduced from 12% points in 2007/08 however there has been a widening of the gap for victims of vehicle crime (from 5% in 2007/08).

27. The current target - to reduce the gap to 3.8% - is within the natural margin of error (1.6% for this measure). Taking this margin of error into account the latest performance is not statistically different from the target, but the size of the margin of error is a methodological challenge and we are continuing to investigate this issue. This is a significant issue as we try to manage improvement.

28. Following the April report, a further paper will be brought to the September meeting of this Committee. That paper will focus on both how we plan to close the satisfaction gap, building on the research already undertaken, as well as how to solve the methodological challenge highlighted above.

Serious violence

29. Recent performance and the scale of action underway by the MPS are set out above. The MPS continues to carry out a risk-based review of the classification of Most Serious Violence (MSV) and Assault with Injury (AWI). From April 2008, the Home Office clarified the boundaries between different types of assault, particularly GBH and ABH, and at the same time changed the categories required by police forces to count. Complying with these changes in practice represented a challenge for most forces. Home Office is currently reviewing the MSV measure within APACS and has commissioned the HMIC to review national issues regarding differential classification and recording practices. The MPS Data Accuracy Team's review will be followed by an on-going 'maintenance phase' to quality assure the borough processes throughout 2009/10.

Sanction detections for Class A drug trafficking offences

30. In the last quarter of 2008/09 the MPS experienced a significant reduction in performance in relation to its CPA target to “increase sanctioned detections for Class A trafficking and of these, the number for cocaine and heroin”. Detections have fallen from 2,516 in 2008/09 to 2,312 for the rolling year to May 2009. Subsequently the 2008/09 target was missed by 9 sanctioned detections. However this should be viewed in the context that in 2007/08 the MPS achieved a 17% increase, from 2,149 to 2,525 (376 detections).

31. During the period 1 April to 7 June 2009, the MPS recorded 367 Class A trafficking sanctioned detections compared to 575 for the same period last year, a 36% reduction. We are developing our understanding of what contributed to this dip at present - some of it may be down to balancing priorities locally and some to changing drug trends.

32. Significant successes have been recorded in drug performance related to POCA and the disruption of criminal networks. It is conceivable that this local activity and the National Drugs Strategy are having an effect by bringing offenders to justice and reducing the numbers of those known to the police who are involved in crime. The SCD7 Projects Team and Middle Market Drugs Partnership (MMDP) seized over 900 kilos of class A drugs and 9,533 kilos of class C drugs in 2008/09. The MMDP is perhaps the best example of our influence on other law enforcement partners. With SOCA restructuring we will continue to influence their role within London. Our strategy includes other ongoing operations such as Operation Hawk, Operation Opaque (targeting Organised Criminal Networks involved in cannabis factories) and Herald (testing detainees in police stations for a variety of class A drugs).

33. Looking forward, the present drugs strategy is currently under review in anticipation of 2010/13. Emphasis will be on community engagement to improve Confidence, tackling class A drugs which cause the most harm and disrupting supply through POCA interventions. We have also seen the recent and well publicised National Tackling Drugs Week (8 to 12 June), which both raised the profile of issues relating to drugs to all our operational officers and provided an opportunity to co-ordinate planned activity and publicise it effectively. The headline results below, whilst encouraging, should not however be seen as an indication of trend over such a short period:

• Drugs with a street value of £5.8 million were seized
• Nine firearms and 60 other weapons recovered
• 202 charges (with more pending) from drug related offences from 413 arrests
• Assets of property and cash of over £1 million seized
• 10 crack houses and 31 cannabis factories shut down with the seizure of 5,000 cannabis plants

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

34. The recruitment of BME police officers has made steady progress over the rolling year. A total of 342 BME police recruits joined the MPS during the period June 2008 to May 2009, representing 15% of all new recruits. Targeted recruitment events and training support packages for BME candidates over the coming months will increase the number of BME applicants and improve success rates, increasing the proportion, we anticipate, to the target of 20%.

35. BME police officer strength has increased from 2,609 in May 2008 to 2,920 in May 2009, an increase of 311 officers. This represents 8.9% of the total police officer strength of 32,977 and is the highest level ever recorded within the MPS.

Critical Performance Areas not assigned a traffic light status

36. At this early stage in the reporting year a small number of indicators have not been assigned a traffic light status:

• For CPAs 1a and 1b this is because expectations of progress are not established for just one month into the performance year.
• For CPA 4e data is provisional at this stage.
• For CPA 6a data has not yet been released.

Other Corporate Policing Plan Measures (Appendix 2)

37. Appendix 2 provides information on other corporate measures featured in the 2009/10 Policing Plan, including commentary on exceptions with a red status. Of the 34 additional policing plan measures where a traffic light status has been shown, 21 are assessed as green, 10 amber and four are red.

C. Legal implications

1. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area under s6 of the Police Act 1996. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the policing plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

2. The Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

D. Race and equality impact

Implications of performance against individual targets are considered in in-depth performance reports throughout the year. This report notes exceptions in strategic disproportionality indicators where applicable.

E. Financial implications

1. The contents of this report generally raise no additional financial implications beyond forecasts and estimates previously presented to the Authority. However further information is provided below in relation to the MPS initiatives on burglary.

2. An allocation of £1 million has been made in the 2009/10 TP Tasking budget for burglary operations from a total budget of £4 million. To date, a total of £242k has already been committed. This tasking budget is also used to fund Operation Blunt 2 and other aspects of serious youth violence. Savings will need to be identified from within TP budgets or elsewhere within the MPS to sustain the level of funding allocated to TP Tasking in 2008/09.

3. The publicity campaign proposed by DPA as part of the MPS Residential Burglary Action Plan using the ‘Bumblebee’ theme in response to residential burglary issues is costed at approximately £200k.

E. Background papers

None

F. Contact details

Report author: Richard Clarke and Mick Debens, Strategy and Improvement Department, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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