Headline performance report 10 months to January 2010

Report: 5
Date: 4 March 2010
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This report provides an overview of progress against targets set for Critical Performance Areas and other corporate measures featured in the Policing London Business Plan 2009–12.

A. Recommendation

That members note the latest performance against the Policing Plan and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an update on progress against our key areas of performance. The MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2009-12 highlights how we will deliver the two key outcomes of safety and public confidence (along with ensuring that we do so efficiently and with a clear focus on improvement). Our Policing Plan, underpinned by the 5Ps, has been developed to sustain the crime reduction that has been achieved over the last ten years and, at the same time, increase public trust and confidence in the MPS.

2. Our aim is to focus discussion on areas we are looking to improve. The following paragraphs report performance by exception against those indicators where there is greatest need for action.

Report structure

3. The report comprises two main sections:

• Critical Performance Areas' (CPAs) - the corporate ‘critical few’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1)
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-CPA corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2)

4. This report provides data for the financial year to date (FYTD) from April 2009 to January 2010 compared to the same ten months last year unless otherwise stated. Performance against the 2009/10 targets is assessed using a red, amber or green traffic light.

• ‘Green’ status indicates performance on or above target.
• ‘Amber’ status indicates performance marginally below target.
• ‘Red’ status indicates exceptions where performance is well below target and appears at risk unless remedial action is taken.

While the bulk of the document is focussed on the CPAs, there is also brief commentary on the more significant instances where performance in CMs is not achieving the target.

Current performance focus

Confidence in local policing

5. At 51.2%, the latest British Crime Survey (BCS) results for confidence in local policing (year to Sept 09) falls just short of its 51.4% target. The BCS has shown a steady rise in confidence levels since the first full year survey result was obtained for this measure (47.4% year to Sept 08).

Results for the same indicator taken from the Public Attitude Survey, (publishes 3 months in advance of the BCS) has remained steady over the last year at 50% since March 2009 but has decreased to 48% in the most recent quarter (rolling 12 month to December 2009). However, there is a wide variation in performance in this indicator across BOCUs ranging from 11% (Barking and Dagenham) to 87% (Hounslow).

6. User Satisfaction – No new results

7. People agree that the police would treat them with respect – No new results

Most serious violence (MSV)

8. Overall MSV is still showing a decrease of 103 offences (-1.1%). MSV levels in January were down by 42 offences compared to the same month last year with November 2009 to January 2010 having the first, third and fourth fewest offences since this crime category began in April 2008. However, the current reduction level is still short of the –4.3% reduction target. Average monthly MSV levels currently stand at 950 for the FYTD but will need to be fewer than 829 offences in the remaining 2 months of this year to meet this challenging goal.

9. The combined measure of MSV and Assault with Injury (AWI) has increased by 266 offences (0.4%) over the same period. AWI is showing an increase of 0.7% for the FYTD overall although both December and January levels had the lowest and second lowest number of AWI offences so far this year.

10. There have been 31 (24.2%) fewer homicides, a component of MSV, over the FYTD. The FYTD has the fewest homicides since at least 1998.

11. While there were 68 fewer serious youth violence victims (-1.2%) over this FYTD, that reduction falls short of the 4.7% target.

12. Knife crime overall has also dropped by 122 offences (-1.2%) with homicides from sharp objects down by 22 (65 to 43 deaths). However, knife crime offences in January were up 17.9% on the same month last year with levels in January 2010 now exceeding the monthly average for the period April – December 2009. If this upward trend continues, not only is the reduction target of –5.6% likely to be missed by the end of the year (monthly averages will need to fall from 1035 offences for the YTD so far to 654 per month in the remaining 2 months) but knife crime is in danger of increasing against last year by the end of 2009/10.

The MPS recognises this risk and continues to target violence, youth crime and knife-enabled crime through a number of new and current operations. These include the following:

• Operation Intense to be deployed in Hackney (Hoxton) and Croydon town centre) on 11 - 12 February 2010 to target weapon carriage and use associated with the late night economy and the older age range (20-24yrs).
• Enhanced deployments under Operation Blunt 2 to specifically tackle the threat of late night knife-enabled robberies on 8 hotspot boroughs between 12 February and 31 March 2010, covering Valentines weekend, St Patrick’s Day and the subsequent weekend.
• Operation Protect - additional support to be provided from ASU deployments, Operation Sphere and MSC Police Staff to cover post-school transport routes and town centres over the school spring term with focus on the 1500-1800 period each weekday. This includes the distribution of anti-knife crime poster to all schools and colleges to raise awareness.

Serious acquisitive crime

13. Serious acquisitive crime (residential burglary, robbery and motor vehicle crime) is down by 7,481 offences / 4.5%, therefore exceeding the 2% reduction target. While there have been 1,839 more residential burglaries this FYTD (3.8%), levels in December and January have dropped, making it the second sequential month this FYTD to be lower than its corresponding months last year (down by a total of 14.3%). This is also the first time since 2005/06 that offence levels have not risen in January following on from December.

Below is the table that has appeared in previous reports showing the latest FYTD figure in the context of the last few years (Apr – Jan). 2009/10 may be higher than the last 3 FYTDs but it is lower than 2005/06 to 2003/04.

Res. Burglary	08/09	07/08	06/07	05/06	04/05	03/04
09/10 vs.	3.8%	1.9%	1.0%	-6.0%	-3.8%	-10.7%
	48,844	49,740	50,193	53,939	52,693	57,034

The 50,683 residential burglaries for the FYTD 09/10 are over 1,000 fewer than the average (51,875) for the last seven years and over 6,000 less than the number for 2003/04.

14. Deployments by Bumblebee Taskforces at Redbridge (14 Dec 2009 – 24 Jan 2010) and Bromley (4 – 24 Jan 2010) resulted in a total of 275 arrests, 109 of which were charged and a further 89 are still under investigation on police bail. 31 of the total arrests were for burglary offences of which 16 were charged.

On 25 January 2010, the Bumblebee Taskforces were redeployed to Ealing and Wandsworth to run for a period of four weeks until 21 February 2010. So far, these deployments have resulted in 57 total arrests of which 13 were charged and a further 8 still under investigation on police bail. 15 of the total arrests were for burglary offences of which 8 where charged.

15. Motor vehicle crime remains on a downward trend with 9,407 fewer offences (10.3%) and is still at its lowest level for this period since at least 1998/99. So far this FYTD, December had the lowest monthly figure for both theft from and of a vehicle with January following closely at second and third lowest respectively.

16. Robbery is up but only by 87 offences (0.3%). Not including November and May which were both significantly different to their corresponding months in 2008, the robbery figures in the other months have been more or less comparable for both years.

Serious sexual offences [1] sanction detection rate

17. The sanction detection rate (SD) for serious sexual offences is 22.9%, against a target of 31% for 2009/10. Following a temporary drop in the number of reported serious sexual offences in December, numbers rose again to the over 600 levels seen each month since June 2009. In contrast, last year, only 2 out of 10 months reached this level (600 and 607 offences). A similar trend is also mirrored in the number of reported rapes which currently stand 513 offences higher this FYTD than last year.

A report will be submitted to the 4 March meeting of this committee to address the extent to which the rise in rape is due to more/better reporting.

As previously mentioned, SCD 2 is concentrating on maximizing the number of serious sexual offence cases that result in charges and that then go on to reach trial. In pursuit of that objective, it has now been agreed that a CPS central charging team will start work in March 2010.

18. The latest offences brought to justice (OBTJ) rate provided by the Home Office and currently used as a proxy for the conviction rate for serious sexual offences, is 24.9% (year to Oct 2009) and the MPS is ranked fourth in its MSF group.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

19. As there were no intakes of recruits in December and January, the proportion of BME police officer recruits for the FYTD to January 2009 remains unchanged from November when it was 14.3%. However, an intake of police officer recruits occurred on 8th February and a further one is planned for 15th March 2010. Should all those that have been invited to start on the 15th March 2010 attend, the overall performance for the year will exceed 17% BME recruits and is anticipated to be the 2nd highest rate in our history.

Gun crime

20. There have been 269 more gun crimes (10.7%) this FYTD. Despite a drop in both November and December 2009, gun crime in January 2010 had returned to the levels seen in the earlier months between May and October 2009.

The number of gun shots fired is also up by 133 offences (28.3%), but the majority of these were non fatal. There were 14 deaths from shootings this FYTD which equal that of the same ten months last year.

21. The 10.7% rise in overall gun crime also includes 133 more Trident offences. Although there are 8 more Trident offences in January 2010 compared to December 09, it ties with April as having the second lowest number of offences a month this FYTD. At 13 offences, December 2009 has the lowest monthly number of offences since September 2008.

22. The current definition of gun crime was only introduced by the Home Office at the start of 2008/09. The table below uses a proxy definition of gun crime to compare gun crime over the last 6 years. Even though 2009/10 has just over 400 more gun crimes than 2008/09, it is down compared to all the other years shown, making it the second lowest FYTD total for the last 6 years.

	09/10	08/09	07/08	06/07	05/06	04/05
Proxy Gun Crime	2,172	1,765	2,478	2,601	3,013	2,835

Assets recovered

23. The average value of assets recovered April 2009 – January 2010 was £3.0m against the target monthly average of £3.75m. However, the range varies considerably from £1.5 in August 2009 to £5.4m in June 2009. As previously reported, new performance measures will be developed for 2010/11.

Class A drug trafficking SDs

24. The latest results for total Class A trafficking sanction detections show that the end of year SD targets is being missed for the FYTD and the rolling 12 months to January 2010. Similarly, the targets are being missed for both cocaine and heroin. It would require at least an average of 60 or more SDs per month above its current FYTD average (200 SDs) in February and March for Class A drugs trafficking to meet its challenging 2009/10 target.

25. The Drug Strategy 2010/13 was approved by Performance Board on 26 January 2010 on behalf of the MPS and it is now being placed on the agenda for the next available SOP meeting to seek MPA approval.

Corporate Measure Targets

26. Below is a list of the more significant instances where CM targets are not being attained. With the exception of CM15 (serious youth violence), all the others remain the same as those reported last month.

1. CM 5 (people who have heard of their SNT) – As mentioned in the February report, a range of SNT communication activities are being co-ordinated by the central SN media and communications team, DPA, TP press office and boroughs.
2. CM 9 (victims updated) - The 100% target represents the stretching ambition documented in the Policing Pledge. Performance has improved by 23% points since Apr-08 (64%).
3. CM15 (serious youth violence) – There are 68 fewer victims of serious youth violence aged under 20 in the FY to January compared to last year. Whilst this is a success, it still falls short of the end of year target reduction of 4.7%.
4. CM 20 (asset seizure cases) - Performance for 2008/09 was higher than anticipated and so 10% increase target is a greater challenge than originally expected. Since 2006/07 there has been a large increase in new cases. Cases take around 3 years to conclude with the result that there is a levelling off of new cases that can be undertaken within current resources.
5. CM 30 (PURE) - "2" is defined as 'adequate' but the Audit Commission has said that the 2008/09 assessment was much harder than previously since organisations had to show improved performance to maintain current scores. Consequently the MPA/MPS' s 2 represents a real improvement. It also stated that the national trend for PURE was downward.
6. CMs 34 -37 - (sickness for officers, staff, PCSOs and traffic wardens) – As previously reported, a number of measures have been put into place to help minimise sickness levels including ongoing monitoring of hot spotting of problem areas/cases and the implementation of a 5 point Health and Well Being promotion expected for the new financial year.
   

C. Race and equality impact

The implications of performance against individual targets relating to race and equality issues are considered in in-depth performance reports throughout the year. Areas where disproportionality may have an impact in this report include MPS activities around youth violence, knife crime, serious sexual offences and BME recruitment.

The MPS also uses the quarterly British Crime Survey, User Satisfaction Survey and Public Attitude Survey to monitor our performance against levels of confidence and satisfaction of our diverse communities. The results of these surveys are reported on a regular basis in this report.

D. Financial implications

All costs associated with the activities outlined above are covered within existing budgets.

E. Legal implications

1. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

2. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

3. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

4. The Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

F. Background papers

None

G. Contact details

Report author: Ann Lieu, Strategy and Improvement Department, MPS.

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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