Headline Performance Report for 2010/11

Report: 7
Date: 16 September 2010
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This paper describes performance of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and other corporate measures compared to their 2010/11 targets in the Policing London Business Plan 2010–13 for the FYTD to July 2010.

A. Recommendation

That

1. Members note the 2010/11 performance of indicators shown in the Policing Plan against their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

2. Members note proposals on in year modifications to KPIs will be submitted to the MPA for consideration at their joint SOP/F&R committee on 23 September.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an overview of how the MPS is performing in the financial year 2010/11 to July 2010 against the targets set for 2010/11 in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2010 -13. The Plan’s primary goals are to reduce crime and increase public confidence in the MPS. The comparisons in the report are of the FYTD compared to the same period in 2009/10 unless otherwise stated.

Report structure

2. The body of the report focuses on how the KPIs are performing against targets and against the same period last year. It has 2 appendices:

• Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) - the corporate ‘key’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1).
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-KPI corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2).

The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

• Red - performance off target and worse than at the same time last year
• Amber - performance off target but better than at the same time last year
• Green - performance is on or better than target.

Current performance focus - Summary

3. There have been almost 2,000 fewer residential burglaries this year than last and the number of people charged with residential burglary has risen by 15%. The current charge rate for burglary is the highest since 1998 over the four month comparison. The residential burglary Sanction Detection (SD) rate is 2% points (13% vs. 11%) above last year’s rate.

4. The SD rates for robbery, MV crime and residential burglary, racist and homophobic crime continue to be shy of their targets. However, the SD rate for MSV is well above its target.

5. Robbery continues to be a challenge with a 5% increase; with personal robbery up by 6%. Robbery is also behind the rise (3%) in knife crime. While there have been 8 more homicides this year than last, there were 15 more in 2008/09.

6. Operation Verano together with Operation Blunt 2 (which includes Operation Vinco) are the main central initiatives aimed at reducing violence and robbery.

7. The MPS is ranked first out of its Most Similar Forces on Confidence. The MPS is considering its detailed response to the Home Secretary’s announcement on the scrapping of the confidence target and Policing Pledge and will return to MPA with some proposals for possible in year modifications to the KPIs.

8. The MPS also proposes that the KPI relating to the Olympics (the % of milestones met) should be changed to a qualitative indicator where the MPS reports on risks on an exception basis.

9. The biggest challenge facing the MPS is to manage its budget cuts whilst minimising the impact on the quality of the police service that the public in London receives.

Confidence in local policing - people agreeing police & local council are dealing with local crime & ASB issues

10. The new Home Secretary abolished the police target set by the previous Government for the confidence measure during her speech to the ACPO conference on 29 June. However, public confidence remains a priority for the MPS.

11. A review is underway to examine the issues arising from the Home Secretary’s announcement. One of its key elements is to ensure that both staff and partners understand the MPS’s ongoing commitment to delivering improved public confidence and excellent service. The intention is to move to an indicator that concentrates on measuring public satisfaction with local police activity which will be derived from the MPS’s own public attitude survey. The public’s response to this question has been collected for a number of years so there is a robust baseline and historic figures available to compare the present performance against.

12. The BCS results for the financial year 2009/10 show almost 55% of the public agree that the police and local council are dealing with local crime and ASB. That exceeds the 2009/10 target which was 51.4% and is statistically significantly above the 51% average for England & Wales. [1] The MPS had the highest confidence rate in its MSF, and was 7th out of the 42 forces in England & Wales.

User satisfaction

13. 79% of the users were satisfied with the service they received from the MPS for the quarter ending June 2010. The quarter result is just below the target and along with Q3 last year (2009/10) is the best quarterly result for this survey, reflecting the emphasis that the MPS has placed on increasing User Satisfaction. A Confidence and Satisfaction Board has been operative since April. The result for the 12 months to June 2010 (78.6%) is 1.3% pts above the result for the previous 12 months and the best rate for the last 5 years.

14. Nevertheless the overall long term trend for the MPS has remained fairly static with performance between 76.6% and 78.7% since 2005/06 compared to forces in our MSF group which have improved from an average of 78% in 2005/06 to 84% in June 2009.

15. The TP Development programme is looking into better alignment of personnel with demand. This involves reviewing shift patterns, staffing structures and deployment models to improve the service to the public and, ultimately, user satisfaction.

Satisfaction of white & BME users with the overall service provided

16. For the quarter (3 months) to June 2010 the satisfaction rates for white people is 81% vs 74% for BME users of the service. The quarterly data fluctuates because of the relatively small sample sizes - the quarterly satisfaction gap between white and BME users ranged between 3% pts and almost 7% pts over the last four quarterly results. The gap for the rolling 12 month results has only ranged between 4.7% and 5.1% pts over the last 4 quarters, indicating that the 12 month figures are a more reliable guide to performance.

17. While there is no room for complacency in this area, the gap is partly explained by demographic considerations such as the fact that BME users are on average likely to be younger than whites, more likely to use front counters and more likely to report crimes via 999. All of these factors are likely to influence user satisfaction and have been reported on previously.

18. This gap in user satisfaction occurs in most other forces, possibly for the same reasons. The gap for the MPS is in line with those of the other forces in its MSF.

Policing Pledge Promises

19. As well as cancelling the confidence target (see above para 10) the Home Secretary also rescinded the National Policing Pledge.

20. The MPS will continue to strive to give the public excellent service. Nevertheless it feels that some of the Pledge promises were too resource intensive, bureaucratic and rigid for the more flexible approach required in today’s financial climate of diminishing resources. The Pledge also did not facilitate providing policing services tailored to local demands. As the separate paper on the Policing Pledge being considered by the SOP Committee emphasises, the removal of the Policing Pledge can be seen as an opportunity to allow the MPS to re-focus staff and customers on the key objectives and standards that the organisation intends to deliver.

21. The MPS is considering how to deal with the fact that one of its existing KPIs is the “Number of Policing Pledge promises met” and will return with some proposals to the MPA at the joint SOP/F&R Committee meeting on 23 September.

Serious Acquisitive Crime

22. There have been 1,415 / -2.1% fewer serious acquisitive crimes (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary), almost meeting the 3.2% reduction target. The SD rate of 9.2% is below the target of 12.2% and slightly below the level of 9.9% at this time last year.

23. As Serious Acquisitive Crime (SAC) is a combination of 3 different crime types [robbery, motor vehicle (theft of and from), and residential burglary] it is necessary to examine the SD rate of each individual crime type to understand the reasons for the overall SAC SD performance. SD rate itself is also made up of 3 separate components - caution, charge and Taken Into Consideration (TIC), whereby cases are TIC at court where the offence has been previously recorded by the MPS. An analysis has demonstrated that it is the fall in the TIC rate for theft from motor vehicles that is the principal reason for the SAC SD performance. This TIC rate is very prone to fluctuation.

24. Residential burglary is 10% lower, with 1984 less offences than FY2009/10 and hitting its 4% target. It is at its lowest level since 1998/99 and is running very closely to the 3 year average. It may be difficult to maintain the decrease because it will not be possible to replicate last year’s Operation Bumblebee in the autumn because of the demand on resources from other priorities. Residential burglary tends to increase when the time changes at the end of October. The number of people charged with residential burglary has gone up by 15% (141) and is now the highest since 1998 over the four month comparison.

25. Whilst short of the 16% target, the SD rate for residential burglary offences has improved by 2.2% from 11.0% to 13.2%. Roughly half of this improvement is due to a greater number of SDs, and half through the reduction in the number of offences between the two years. The biggest player in the increase in SDs is 141 more charges increasing the charge rate from 4.9% to 6.2%. The current charge rate is the highest since 1998 (also 6.2%). The setting of a 16% target was ambitious, as this level has only been achieved in two financial years since 1998/99. In both years that was due to a very high number of non-charge SDs.

26. Robberies have increased by 568 (5%) against last FYTD, missing its target of -3%. While robberies are higher than last year and 2008, they are lower than they were for the same months in the previous 8 years (2000-2007).

27. The number of robberies where a gun was involved fell by 12% but they account for a very small proportion (4%) of robberies. Knife robberies account for around 1 in 5 of all robberies and increased by +6%. Within this, knife robberies where the victim was injured by a knife declined by 55 (-20%). The number of robberies not involving a gun or knife increased by 5.7%.

28. While personal robbery has gone up by 6.2%, business robbery has declined by 7.3%. Business robbery makes up only around 10% of all robbery

29. As mentioned in the last report, the focus is on areas where crime is clustered and on those suspects who are most likely to commit crimes. As well as Blunt 2 and Operation Vinco which provides unmarked Q cars to combat robbery, TPHQ has rolled out the tactical options for Safer Streets (Robbery). That initiative targets knife enabled crime and therefore success should reduce robbery and violent crime.

30. Previously motor vehicle crime (MV) was showing a decrease but now these offences are at the same level as last year. The SD rate has improved since the last report from 3.5% to 4.8% but is below the 2010/11 target of 7.5% and the 2009/10 rate FYTD of 7.2%. However that may be because last year May, June and July had very high number of SDs mainly because there were many TICs (crimes admitted by the offender to be Taken Into Consideration at court).

31. MV crime is broken down as follows:

• There have been 66 (0.7%) more vehicles stolen this FYTD.
• There have been slightly fewer thefts from an MV (65 / -0.3%) compared to the same period a year ago which is not enough to meet the -3.0% reduction target.

Most Serious Violence (MSV)

32. While MSV is showing a reduction of 916 (-21.1%) and is achieving the 4% reduction target, it is possible that part of this reduction may be due to misunderstanding of the classification guidance last year. A broader indicator of the level of violence is MSV combined with Assault With Injury (AWI) which is also showing a 3.2% reduction.

33. The SD rate for the FYTD is 38.1%, well above the 35% target and above the 32.4% rate for the same period last year. The SD rate for MSV & AWI has increased from 30.9% to 31.6% and so part of the improvement in the SD rate for MSV on its own may be because of the classification issue. However, unlike other crime types (such as Serious Acquisitive above), this SD rate is not affected by variations in the proportion of crimes Taken Into Consideration, so is a reflection of the sustained effort against Violent Offenders.

34. Operations Blunt2 and Verano continue to focus on reducing serious violence.

Knife crime

35. So far this FYTD there have been 131 more knife crimes. That equates to +3.1% against the -4% reduction target. On the other hand the number of knife crimes is below the FYTD levels in 2008 and 2007 when the current definition of knife crime came into use. The current definition of knife crime includes offences where a knife is used to injure, where it is used as a threat, and intimated knife crimes (where a knife is not actually seen, but the victims believes it was present). Proportionately, these account for around 34%, 48% and 18% of overall knife crime over the FYTD. “Robbery” above sets out the rise in robbery with a knife which is the major driver of the increase in knife crime. MSV + AWI where a knife was used declined by 36 offences (-25).

36. The fall in knife violence is supported by the encouraging decline in offences where a knife has been used to injure of which there have been 79 (-5%) fewer this FYTD.

37. Homicides due to sharp objects are have increased by 4 (23 vs 19) but there were 35 in FYTD 2008/09. This year has the third lowest number of knife homicides in the last 9 years.

38. The knife crime SD rate is 25.7%, which is an improvement on the 24.1% rate at this time last year and again reflects the operational focus in this area.

39. There is a rolling programme of knife arches and hand held scanners to reduce the number of people carrying a knife. As mentioned above Blunt 2 and Operation Vinco cover violence against young people particularly from knives.

Gun crime

40. There has been a decline of almost 10% (114) in gun crime with the decrease concentrated in robbery and non-MSV violence. Gun enabled MSV has increased by 3 offences (197 vs 194). The SD rate of 28.4% is 5%pts up on last year when it was 23%.

41. Offences where a firearm has been discharged are slightly below last year with 5 (-2%) fewer crimes, though it should be noted that July 2009 had a very high number of these incidents, as did August 2009. Previously this was showing a slight increase. 14 people have died from shootings which is 9 more than last year and the highest number since 2002 for the FYTD.

42. The previous report listed a number of tactics and initiatives that MPS is using to fight gun crime in conjunction as part of its efforts to reduce violence and they are still ongoing.

43. Operation Verano continues to respond to intelligence to deploy CO19, who deal with incidents involving firearms. Operation Esen deployments have been used over the summer and in the 2 weeks leading up to the Notting Hill carnival to combat the use of firearms and threats to life.

Rape Victims Survey

44. The number of recorded rapes continues to rise. Although it is not possible to rule out a rise in offending, it is thought that almost half of the rise is due to more victims coming forward, with the remainder being the result being better crime recording. The MPA has commissioned an in depth review into related issues.

45. Because of the trauma suffered by these victims, it is difficult to get robust numerical results relating to victim satisfaction, with sample sizes varying from 39 for the 3 months April - June 2010 compared to 27 in the previous quarter, with big swings in the results. Consequently it may not be meaningful to use the results as a performance indicator. However, through the written responses from victims the survey does provide valuable learning on how the service to victims can be improved. The MPA does receive additional information on the MPS’s performance against rape, as additional indicators form part of the control set of indicators shown in Appendix 2 to this report. These indicators include, for example, the total number of reported rapes and the SD rates for Stranger 1 (the offender has had no prior contact with the victim) and Stranger 2 (Victim and offender are briefly known to one another e.g. met in a bar).

Reported Hate crimes

46. Because of the relatively small numbers of all hate crimes, the trends figures tend to vary more than other crime types.

47. Domestic violence (DV) offences have declined by 197 (-1.1%) compared to last year. The SD rate is now 46.5% up from the 43% at the end of May and almost hitting the target of 47% and the same as last year at this point in time. The DV arrest rate of 78% is now above the target of 77%.

48. The SD rate for racist and religious crimes has also improved from 38.3% in May, to 41.4% now for the FYTD but a little below last year’s rate of 43.3%, and the 45% target.

49. The SD rate for reported homophobic crime has also improved significantly from 29.5% at the end of May to 37.3% now. It is below last year’s rate of 42.6% and this year’s 45% target.

50. The number of reported crimes for both these types of hate crime have declined since last year with 262 (-7.3%) fewer racist and religious crimes and 49 (-9.3%) fewer reported homophobic crimes.

People killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions

51. There were on average 249 people killed or seriously injured in traffic accidents (KSIs) per month in the 12 months to April 2010. The MPS will continue to work to bring down this figure but it is achieving the target figure for 2010/11 of fewer than 277 KSIs a month. The current rate means that there were over 350 fewer victims in the year to April 2010 than in the 12 months prior to that. There is a lag of at least 3 months for this data.

52. The Department of Transport will be publishing the new UK Road Safety Strategy and targets which are likely to revise the 277 target mentioned above.

53. The MPS works with partners to reduce road casualties through education and information sharing. For example motorcyclists are 1% of road users but 20% of KSIs and so the MPS provides Bike Safe courses to motorcyclists. MPS officers and staff in conjunction with local authority Road Safety Officers visit schools to raise road safety awareness. Information on locations with a lot of accidents is shared with TfL, local councils and road-user groups.

Homicide

54. There have been 8 more homicides this FYTD compared to last year which had the lowest homicides since at least 1998/99. 2010/11 has had 15 fewer homicides than 2008/09 FYTD and has the second fewest homicides since 1998/99.

55. Paras 13 and 14 above mention the increases in homicides due to guns and sharp instruments.

56. There were 10 homicides where the victims were aged 1 to 19 years compared to 6 last year but 14 the year before that. The number of sharp instrument homicides of people aged 1 -19 was 6 for this FYTD, 3 for last year, and 10 for 2008/09.

57. The detection rate is 89% against the year-end target of 85%.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

58. For the FYTD the % of officer recruits from BME backgrounds is 12% against a 20% target. That is unlikely to change in the near future.

59. Previous reports have mentioned that the MPS would not meet the target for police officer recruits from BME backgrounds. That was because there was a reduced need for new officers because fewer were leaving the MPS. Consequently recruitment this year has been limited to PCSOs already ‘in the system’ and their ethnicity profile would not allow the target to be achieved. Subsequently police officer recruitment has paused while the MPS awaits the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) in October/November when the deployment plan and strategy will be revised in line with the CSR and the Medium Term Financial Plan.

60. In previous discussions with the MPA it was agreed that the MPS may come back to the MPA to discuss amending this target for 2010/11.

% Milestones for the Olympic and Paralympic Games met

61. The last report to SOPC outlined the problems with using the above measure as a way of monitoring the achievement of a safe and secure Olympic and Paralympic Games - many of which are not within the control of the MPS.

62. Performance Board now receives a report on a risk exception basis in place of the “% of milestones for the Olympic and Paralympic Games met” KPI. The Olympic Security Directorate (OSD) will report on risks that their systematic analysis of issues from their risk register has identified as being a significant current challenge to the success of the Games. MPA members will receive further advice on how the MPS proposes to modify the existing KPI.

63. In July the OSD identified the risk ‘Inability to recruit and retain appropriately skilled staff’ as a cause for concern. A number of actions have been taken including ones to deal with the MPS’s pause in recruitment; and an HR strategy for decommissioning the MPS contribution to the Olympic and Paralympic Safety and Security Programme (OSSP).

64. However, due to the need for specialist skills and the temporary nature of the posts, there will still be a significant risk that it will be difficult to recruit suitable staff and that existing staff will consider moving on before the OSSP is complete. Therefore this risk will be subject to monthly review.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Race and Equality Impact

1. The report sets out the rates at which hate crimes are solved as well as outlining the current difficulties in recruiting more officers from BME back grounds. Another part of the report looks at the different levels of satisfaction of white & BME users of the police service.

2. Whilst equality and diversity issues are not directly identified through the performance indicators, the regular review of the statistics provided enable the MPS to highlight areas for diversity and equality consideration.

Consideration of MET Forward

3. The KPIs and other corporate measures covered in this report reflect performance against the key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

4. As discussed in the previous report the Government has announced an ‘in year’ reduction in policing grant and the current impact is cuts of £30m in general expenditure and £5m in CT expenditure. Work is continuing on a package of proposals to deal with this reduced funding which is in addition to the £100m reductions already built into the 2010/11 budget.

5. The Government is to announce spending cuts in October for the years after 2010/11. The scale of those cuts combined with the impact of in year reductions on partner organisations could affect 2010/11 performance as is already apparent in the KPI on BME officer recruitment. The MPS will do its utmost to insure that the effect on front line services will be kept to a minimum.

6. All costs associated with the collection and reporting of the information contained within this report are covered from within existing MPS budgets through the 2010/13 Business Planning process.

Legal Implications

7. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

8. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

9. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

10. The Strategic Operational Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

Environmental Implications

11. This report contains no direct environmental implications. The MPS has included an indicator relating to the percentage change in total tonnes of CO2 emissions (from buildings, vehicles, operational air travel) which is reported annually within Appendix 2.

Risk Implications

12. Risks and opportunities identified in related to performance against the KPIs are reflected in the content of this report.

Background papers

None.

Contact details

Report authors: Worth Houghton, MPS Strategy and Improvement Department

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

Abbreviations

ACPO

Association of Chief Police Officers

ASB

Anti Social Behaviour

AWI

Assault With Injury

BCS

British Crime Survey

BME

Black and Minority Ethnic

CSR

Comprehensive Spending Review

CT

Counter Terrorism

FYTD

Financial Year to Date (1 April to last date of most recent full month)

KPIs

Key Performance Indicators

KSI

Killed or Seriously Injured

MPA

Metropolitan Police Authority

MPS

Metropolitan Police Service

MSF

Most Similar Force

MSV

Most Serious Violence

MV

Motor Vehicle

OSD

Olympic Security Directorate

OSSP

Olympic and Paralympic Safety and Security Programme

PCSO

Police Community Support Officer

SAC

Serious Acquisitive Crime

SD

Sanction Detections

SOP

Strategic and Operational Policing

TIC

Taken Into Consideration

TPHQ

Territorial Police Head Quarters

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