Headline Performance report for 2010.11

Report: 7
Date: 9 December 2010
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This paper describes performance in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and other corporate measures compared to their 2010/11 targets in the Policing London Business Plan 2010–13 for the seven months to 31 October 2010.

A. Recommendation

That

1. Members note the 2010/11 performance in the indicators shown in the Policing Plan against their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an overview of how the MPS is performing in the financial year 2010/11 to 31 October 2010 against the targets set for 2010/11 in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2010 -13. The Plan’s primary goals are to reduce crime and increase public confidence in the MPS. The comparisons in the report are for the period from April 2010 to October 2010 (“the period”) compared to the same period in 2009/10 unless otherwise stated.

Report Structure

2. The body of the report focuses on how the KPIs are performing against targets and against the same period last year. It has 2 appendices:

• KPIs - the corporate ‘key’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1).
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-KPI corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2).

The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

Red - performance off target and worse than at the same time last year
Amber - performance off target but better than at the same time last year
Green - performance is on or better than target.

Current performance focus

Summary

3. The level of violence is lower this year with almost 2,000 fewer violence with injury offences (VWI) [1].

4. Gun crime has fallen by more than 300 offences (341/ 16.4%). Most importantly the number of crimes where a firearm has been discharged has dropped by 9% or 47 offences.

5. The MPS has the third best rate (56%) of public confidence with the way the MPS and its local authority partners deal with local crime and anti-social behaviour of all the forces in England and Wales. That result comes from the Government’s authoritative British Crime Survey (BCS). This performance reflects the significant focus and effort the MPS has devoted to improving public confidence.

6. There have been 28 fewer deaths from road accidents in the first seven months of this year compared to last year. As set out below the MPS devotes a considerable amount of effort to reducing casualties on London’s roads.

7. Residential burglaries have fallen by almost 3,000 offences (2,939 / 8.4%). The MPS has charged 138 more people with residential burglary this year which may be a factor in the decrease in this crime type.

8. The increase in robbery compared with last year is less this month (4.1%) than last month (4.6%). Within this category knife robbery has risen by 7.2%. This rise in knife robbery is also the main contributory factor in overall knife crime rising by 2.4%, although knife offences that have resulted in violence with injury have fallen by -3.2%%.

9. The four day period covering the Halloween week end (Friday - Monday) had 124 (13%) fewer violence with injury offences and 49 (11%) fewer personal robberies. Extra Borough activity and Operation Autumn Nights were ongoing at that time.

10. In recent weeks, the capital has experienced large scale public protest against education policy and significant police resources have been deployed to police those protests, which continue. For entirely the right reasons, the MPS has been reducing the number of officers deployed on public order events over recent years. Given that every officer policing a public order event is an officer not policing elsewhere in London, this has helped ensure that the MPS is making best use of its resources. Recent events have led the MPS to adopt a more cautionary approach to planning for and policing public protest in London to ensure that the police response is effective. The increased deployment of officers to public order policing is likely to have an impact on the resourcing of pan-London and borough based crime initiatives, and a consequent impact on performance against some KPIs.

11. The previous report mentioned the scale of the budget reductions announced in the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) on 20 October. As a result the MPS like the rest of the public sector will face very testing times over the next few years. In early December the Government is scheduled to announce the police grants to forces. If the announcement is made before this meeting, there will be an oral update on its implications to this meeting. However, the full impact of the CSR on the MPS will still not be known because partners will still be working on the implications of the cuts on their contributions to MPS services.

12. Whatever the final outcome of the spending reductions the MPS is committed to doing all we can to maintain our operational capability; delivering efficient and effective support services at the lowest possible cost; and making the most productive use of our operational assets.

Confidence in local policing - people agreeing police & local council are dealing with local crime & anti-social behaviour (ASB) issues

13. As members may recall, the Home Secretary abolished the police target for the confidence measure at the ACPO conference on 29 June. However the MPS remains committed to promoting public confidence and a report on this important area is scheduled to go to the Communities, Equalities and People Committee of the MPA on 3rd December.

14. The Government’s British Crime Survey (BCS) results for the 12 months to June 2010 say that 56% of Londoners agree that the police and local council are dealing with local crime and ASB. This is a very encouraging result that achieves the abolished target in para 14 of 55.4% for the MPS for the financial year 2010/11. This result is the third highest in England and Wales and the best in the MPS’s Home Office group of Most Similar Forces (MSF). It is also the high point in a steady series of improving levels of public confidence since the baseline of 47.4% at September 2008.

15. That performance is perhaps driven by another good outcome from the BCS survey where the MPS had the second best rate of people who agreed with the statement that “the police in this area can be relied upon to be there when you need them”. These encouraging levels of performance reflect the focus and effort the MPS has brought to bear on this vital aspect of its service. Examples of that effort are the Confidence and Satisfaction Board chaired by a Deputy Assistant Commissioner to monitor performance and drive improvements, boroughs held to account for confidence and satisfaction in their areas, and the training on the drivers of confidence and satisfaction given to Safer Neighbourhood Teams.

16. In the report in para 12 the MPS is looking at moving to a question that just looks at police performance - “percentage of people who think their local police are doing a good or excellent job.” For the 12 months to June 2010 the BCS found that 59.5% of respondents in London thought the MPS was doing a good job - again the best result in the MSF and 11th best of the 42 forces in England and Wales (ex. City of London).

User Satisfaction

17. For the first six months of the financial year 2010/11, 78.9% of the users of the MPS were satisfied with the overall service they received. This is tied for being the best result for the last 6 years for the first half of the financial year though the lowest was 76.8%. The activities mentioned above for confidence also apply to user satisfaction. A customer service strategy for Territorial Policing has been agreed and work is underway to create a delivery plan that is appropriate for all business groups.

Satisfaction of white & BME users with the overall service provided

18. For the six months from April to September 2010 the vast majority of white (80.9%) and BME (73.2%) users were satisfied with the overall service they received. However the result for the quarter July to September of 78.6% was slightly below the previous quarter’s result of 79.1%. Performance Board has commissioned research to establish the reasons behind the different levels of satisfaction. Satisfaction for the first half of the financial year for both groups is above their respective averages of 78.0% and 71.9% for the last 6 years. The satisfaction rate for white users is the best and that of BME users is tied for the best, performance for the period over that 6 year time span. The work on confidence and satisfaction mentioned above should have a positive impact on this indicator.

Policing Pledge Promises

19. At the request of the MPA the report on a replacement to the Policing Pledge promises indicator that was to come to this Committee, is being considered by the Communities, Equalities and People Committee on 3rd December.

Serious Acquisitive Crime (SAC)

20. There have been almost 500 (482 / 0.4%) fewer serious acquisitive crimes (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary) but the decrease is short of the 3.2% reduction target.

21. Residential burglaries have fallen by 2,939 / -8.4% which is a reduction more than twice that of the target for a 4% decrease. The period is just above the same period in 2008/09 for the lowest number of residential burglaries since 1998/99.

22. There have been 789 / 4.1% more robbery offences for this seven month period versus a 3.0 % reduction target for 2010/11. The increase rate has slowed slightly from the 4.6% increase last month.

23. Business robberies have fallen by 254 (13.9%) offences, including 106 fewer cash in transit robberies which represents a fall of almost a third. Operation Vanguard with its focus on partnership working and the targeting of offenders has probably played a significant role in that achievement.

24. Turning to the weapons used in robberies those where a gun is involved have dropped by 20.4% which is very encouraging news although only 3% of robberies involve guns. The estimated number of those where neither a gun nor knife was used has risen by 5.1% and they account for around three quarters of all robberies.

25. On the other hand knife robberies have risen by 287 or 7.2% which is lower than the rate of increase reported at the end of September of 8.3%. This improvement stems from the fact that the number of these robberies in October was slightly below those in October last year.

26. Personal robbery is 1,043/ 6.0% above last year. The MPS is not complacent but it should be noted that 2010/11 has the third fewest personal robberies in the last ten years for this period. Personal robbery and especially knife personal robberies which have risen by 7.7%, have been an ongoing concern. The MPS has adopted a strategic approach which is an intelligence-led focus intended to:

• Support boroughs’ work to identify the time and place of crime “hotspots” e.g. after school hours;
• Arrest, prosecute and convict offenders who commit violent crime including robbery;
• Appoint an MPS lead on enforcement, ensuring that tactics recognise and respond to the concerns and expectations of the community.
  

27. That strategy is put into action through a wide range of ongoing tactical actions some of which have been mentioned in previous reports and which include:

• Special plans for areas where personal robbery is a particular problem,
• Deployment of the tactical options for Safer Streets (Robbery) which are aimed at knife crime.
• Operation Blunt 2, including concerted action against people wanted for robbery and Operation Vinco which provides unmarked (Q) cars to detect and reduce robbery in boroughs where robbery is a big problem.
• Operation Autumn Nights which provides additional resources for boroughs with the most robbery will continue through November. Since its start we have arrested 190 people for personal robbery, stop / searched 3,572 people and recovered 40 knives. It may have been a contributory factor in the reduced violence and personal robbery over the Halloween period.

28. As part of the intelligence based analysis in the strategic approach mentioned above, the MPS has identified two drivers behind the rise in personal robbery.

29. The first is a 22% increase in robberies where a mobile phone was taken to 10,729. All the boroughs are distributing bespoke leaflets, and implementing marking schemes and other preventative measures. Those measures are focused on educational venues including ‘freshers’ week for students, transport hubs where the use of mobile phones outside train / underground stations is common and to a lesser extent within night time economy locations.

30. The second is a rise of 13.8% to 2,589 in robberies where jewellery was stolen mainly from Asians, as a result of the current high price of gold. Boroughs with large populations from the Indian Sub-continent are responding with targeted deployments of overt and covert officers. The support to the Asian community with preventative measures have and continue to be promoted but without intruding on the right of people to wear their jewellery on key religious and festival dates.

31. MV crime is broken down as follows:

• Vehicles stolen - There have been 693 / 4.4% more vehicles stolen during this period. Nevertheless this is second fewest vehicles stolen since at least 1998.
• Thefts from a MV - There has been a 2.3% (975) rise in thefts from vehicles this year. While this is missing the 3% reduction target, it is also the second lowest total for such a period since at least 1998.

32. Additional funding is to be devoted to dealing with motor vehicle crime in the east of London where the rise is a particular concern.

33. The SAC SD rate of 9.4% is below the target of 12.2% and the rate of 10.0% at this time last year. A drop of 1,000+ in the number of TICs (crimes Taken Into Consideration at court) for theft from a motor vehicle is the major reason for that fall. TICs fluctuate a lot from year to year. They provide valuable intelligence but unlike charges do not indicate the number of offenders caught and taken to court. As described below charges for SAC have risen over last year.

34. The residential burglary SD rate of 13.7% is 1.9% pts above last year’s level but short of the target of 16%. 138 more burglars of homes have been charged this year than last and 261 more have been charged compared to 2008/09. The work of Operation Bumbleebee has probably been a factor in the rise in charges for this offence.

35. The robbery SD rate of 16.7% while below its target of 19% is better than the rate at this time last year of 16.1%. The number of people charged with personal robbery has risen by 350 - an increase of almost 15%. It is the result of the strategic emphasis and activities mentioned above, to catch and prosecute those committing this crime.

Homicide

36. There has been 1 fewer homicide [2] during this period and so 2010/11 has had the fewest homicides for the period since at least 1999/00.

37. Homicides of young people continue to be a concern and 2010/11 has had 13 homicides where the victim was aged 1 to 19 which is six more than last year when there were 7. Nevertheless 2010/11 has the second lowest number of young homicide victims since 2002/03. As stated in previous reports, the most important aspiration of the MPS’s anti-knife crime strategy is to prevent homicides particularly of teenagers. This year there have been six of those homicides which is two more than last year but less than the two years before when there were 15 and 11 young homicide victims. Those were the two years when knife violence was of particular concern.

38. Over the last nine years, the period, along with 2009/10, has had the fewest homicides where a sharp object was used.

39. The homicide detection rate for 2010/11 is 97% against the target of 85%.

Other Serious Violence

40. In order to be in line with the top level measure of violence reported on by Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary the MPS will report on VWI. This category includes Most Serious Violence plus Assault With Injury plus a few other very minor categories of violence that account for around 0.1% of the total VWI.

41. There have been 1,966 fewer offences of VWI in the period. That equates to a 4.5% reduction and so the 4% reduction target set for MSV on its own is being achieved. VWI with guns has fallen by 48 offences or 9.6% and those where a knife was involved in some way dropped by 97 or 3.2%. However gun and knife violence with injury account for around 1% and 7% respectively of VWI offences.

42. The VWI SD rate is 32.2% vs 31.5% last year. The 2010/11 SD rate continues to be at its highest rate for the last five years and shows that the MPS’s ability to take judicial action against these offenders is improving.

43. Much of the action listed above for robbery also affects VWI as well. Other ongoing operations that were mentioned in the report to the last meeting were a programme of school visits on the dangers of youth violence and gang involvement; Operation Protect to tackle after schools violence; Operation Bumblebee; SAFE, a website to deter youth offending; and joint anti-weapons campaign by Operations Trident and Blunt 2;

44. This financial year there have been 54 deployments of central units such as the Territorial Support Group to support borough initiatives against violence and robbery.

Knife crime

45. Knife crimes have increased by 178 (2.4%). This rise, as mentioned above, is due to the rise in knife robberies - knife violence with injury fell. Turning to the knife offences of most concern, there have been 98 (3.6%) fewer offences where a knife was used to injure. In about two thirds of knife crimes the knife is not used to injure but rather as a threat.

46. The knife crime SD rate is 25.2% compared to last year’s rate at the same time of 24.2%. The rate is higher for the knife used to injure offences where it is 31.6% which is also 1.4% points above the rate for those crimes at this time last year. Those rates for this year indicate an improvement in the MPS’s performance in catching offenders who assault or threaten people with knives.

47. The MPS slightly improved Because of the overlap between knife crime and robbery much of the action set out above for robbery also affects knife crime. Aside from those activities the MPS is also continuing its rolling programme of knife arches and hand held scanners and regular borough searches of parks for weapons.

Gun crime

48. Gun crimes have reduced by 341 or 16.4% this year. As with knife crime the report has already mentioned gun robbery and violence with injury in general terms.

49. There has been a drop of 9.2% / 47 in offences where a fire arm has been discharged. October had the fewest shootings for a month since February 2010. Those offences account for just over a quarter (26.7%) of gun crime.

50. Shootings have resulted in the deaths of 18 people this year which is seven more than last year and eight more than 2008/09 but is similar to the average of 17 for the six years before that.

51. The SD rate for gun crime as a whole is 27.6% vs. 25.8% last year representing an improvement of almost 2% points in the MPS’s rate of taking legal action against offenders using guns to commit crime.

52. As reported to previous meetings the MPS has a wide range of activities aimed at reducing gun crime such as individual Operation Trident plans for boroughs where gun crime is acute; action against firearm supply; improved use of forensics; using the media proactively to provide public reassurance and deter gun crime; an action plan to target all individuals known to be linked to gun crime on the six boroughs where gun crime is most prevalent; and mediation and intervention activities to reduce serious gun violence.

Rape Victims Survey - There is no new data

53. A detailed paper on SCD 2’s work with serious sexual offences is on the agenda for this meeting.

Reported Hate crimes

54. Reported hate crime has declined across all three categories with almost 1,500 (1,478 / 4.7%) fewer domestic violence (DV) offences, 645 (10.4%) fewer racist and religious crimes and 49 (5.4%) fewer homophobic offences.

55. Performance in the hate crime SD rates is also encouraging with all three categories achieving their targets. The SD rate for DV is 47.5%, which is just above its 47% target and last year’s rate of 46.9%. The SD rates for racist and religious crime and homophobic crime are 47.2% and 49.9% respectively versus 43.7% and 47.1% at this time last year and the 45% target. Improved training and monitoring arrangements have been put in place. There is also more supervision centrally for the more serious cases.

56. The DV arrest rate of 80.2% is 3 % points above its target of 77%.

People killed or seriously injured (KSI) in road traffic collisions

57. 28 fewer people have died from road accidents in the period compared to the same period last year. In the year to July [3] 250 people a month were killed or seriously injured on the roads in London which is below the target monthly figure of fewer than 277 KSIs. There were 242 fewer KSI victims for the 12 months to July 2010 than the 12 months to July 209. The MPS continues to strive to minimise the number of road traffic victims.

58. During October there were 18 proactive operations to reduce KSIs and as was the case last month the main target groups were cyclists, motor cyclists and light goods vehicles.

59. Motorcyclists account for a disproportionately large amount (20%) of the serious road casualties. Consequently the MPS’s Traffic Unit is continuing its Bike Safe courses in an effort to reduce the number of motorcyclist victims of crashes. Other ongoing programmes to reduce road casualties include liaison work with TfL and local authorities on identifying dangerous locations to inform road safety work, school visits to raise road safety awareness and enforcement action against dangerous drivers and vehicles. This enforcement action includes over 2,000 drivers disqualified at court in the six months from April to September this year.

60. Education and enforcement activities are being conducted one day a week for all users of TfL Bus Lanes, as part of the 18 month trial of allowing motor cycles to use bus lanes.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups - there is no new data because recruitment has been paused.

Olympic and Paralympic Risk Exception Report

61. The Exception Report is now the focal point of performance monitoring the progress of the Olympic and Paralympic Safety and Security Programme. It reports on significant changes and potential changes to the top risks to the Programme. The Olympic Security Directorate’s Portfolio Risk Register has now been aligned with Government Olympic Executive’s Risk Register following last month’s review.

62. The Olympic Security Directorate’s Portfolio Management Office held its monthly Risk Assessment Meeting covering the period 12 October 2010 to 12 November 2010. It decided that there had been no significant changes to the Olympic and Paralympic Safety and Security risk environment and that there no substantial updates to risk response plans for that period.

63. The Olympic Security Directorate Risk Manager will continue to monitor all risk reduction and mitigation plans to ensure they are current and fit for purpose.

64. It has been recognised that there are both opportunities and risks arising from Olympic legacy. The Olympic Legacy Board chaired by the Director of Strategy and Improvement is in place and provides oversight for Olympic legacy issues. Further work will take place over the next quarter to establish the requirements for risk processes around this Board and further develop corporate legacy risks.

Cashable savings delivered

65. This information is provided quarterly and so there is no update to the information provided in the previous report.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Race and Equality Impact

1. The regular review of the statistics provided enables the MPS to highlight areas for diversity and equality consideration and address them accordingly.

Consideration of MET Forward

2. The KPIs and other corporate measures covered in this report reflect performance against the key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

3. We have reported to previous meetings on the Government’s ‘in year’ reduction in policing grant and the resulting cuts of £28m in general expenditure and £5m in counter terrorism funding Work is ongoing to find ways to deal with this reduced funding which is on top of the £124m deceases that were part of the 2010/11 budget.

4. As mentioned above, the main grants from the Government are expected to be announced in early December. Other funding sources such as the precept and funding from local authorities and TfL who contribute towards extra police services, may not be known for some time. Consequently the full effect of the budget reductions announced on 20 October in the Comprehensive Spending Review will not be clear for a few months.

5. As mentioned above, the final impact on the MPS budget will clearly be challenging, given the efficiencies already built into the Service’s budget. The Service will work with the Authority in developing the 2011-14 Budget and Business Plan against these challenging financial constraints.

6. The revenue monitoring position for 2010/11 at Period 6 (to the end of September) is a forecast overspend of £8.9m (0.3% of budget). Management Board is actively identifying options for reducing forecast expenditure in order to manage this position.

7. The Capital Programme as at Period 6 (to the end of September) shows year to date total expenditure of £72m. This total represents 26.1% of the revised annual budget of £276.3m. The forecast for the year of £253.3m represents an underspend of £23m (8.3% of the revised annual budget).

8. The costs associated with monitoring and presenting the data set out above are all covered within existing service wide budgets as approved within the 2010/13 Business Plan.

Legal Implications

9. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

10. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

11. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

12. The Strategic Operational Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

Environmental Implications

13. This report contains no direct environmental implications. The MPS has included an indicator relating to the percentage change in total tonnes of CO2 emissions (from buildings, vehicles, operational air travel) which is reported annually within Appendix 2.

Risk Implications

14. Risks and opportunities identified in related to performance against the KPIs are reflected in the content of this report.

D. Background papers

None

D. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, MPS Strategy and Improvement Department , MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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