Headline performance report for 2011/12

Report: 5
Date: 8 September 2011
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This paper describes current performance in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and in other corporate measures.

A. Recommendation

That

1. Members note the performance in the indicators compared with their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes further.
2. Members agree to amend the target for user satisfaction with the overall service from 79.6% to 78% to reflect the fact that victims of road traffic collisions are no longer included in the calculation.

B. Supporting information

1. This document reports on MPS performance against the 2011/12 KPIs and their targets as set out in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2011-14. The Plan sets targets not only for 2011/12 but also for the coming three years to encourage planning over the long term as well as the short term in the current difficult financial environment.

Report Structure

2. The portfolios only include crimes where there is a victim as opposed to state based crimes that are discovered as a result of police action to enforce the law or prevent disorder - for example drug and public order offences.

3. The body of the report focuses on how the KPIs are performing against targets, the current trend and other relevant factors. Appendix 1 lists the KPIs, their targets and current and past performance.

4. The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

• Red - performance off target and worse than at the same time last year
• Amber - performance off target but better than at the same time last year
• Green - performance is on or better than target.

5. Percentage figures are rounded to the nearest ‘whole’ number if over 20% i.e. 25% not 24.7% or 25.2%, unless a decimal place is necessary to support the point being made.

6. Unless otherwise stated comparisons over time below are between the first four months of the financial year 2011/12 (April to July 2011) and the equivalent period in 2010.

Serious disorder in August

7. As Members are aware London was exposed to unprecedented levels of serious violence and disorder in the period from 6th to the 9th of August. On the Saturday night we experienced the escalation of a peaceful protest driven by discontent with the police and IPCC to a spontaneous highly violent group who attacked police, causing damage and looting in Haringey Borough. Over the subsequent nights we saw a different pattern of behaviour which was sporadic in nature, commercially motivated and spread across many Boroughs in London. At its peak, (night of 8/9th August), 22 boroughs were experiencing violence, with over 1,700 calls for the fire brigade to deal with fires. There were almost 4 times as many emergency phone calls as normal - 20,800 vs 5,400.

8. This lead to the biggest peacetime police deployment in London with a large turnout of MPS special constables and significant assistance provided by officers from other forces. Those involved worked long hours at short notice in very difficult circumstances and displayed the utmost courage and bravery in responding to events as they developed. Contrary to some commentary there was no order for officers to hold back and the number of injuries sustained is perhaps just one indicator of how prepared officers were to put themselves in harms way in their attempts to protect London. A minimum of 274 MPS (as at 18th August) officers were injured during the disorder including some requiring surgery.

9. Since then (to 15th August) there have been higher than normal officers on the streets of the capital providing a highly visible presence to forestall further disturbances. These deployments are being reviewed on a risk assessment of both intelligence and in anticipation of forthcoming events.

10. In addition there is a significant commitment to the post event investigation known as Operation Withern, focussed on bringing those involved in criminality in the riots to justice. Many offenders were arrested during the protests and the investigation has focussed on processing them through the court system as well as retrieving forensics, examining over 1,100 (18th August) crime scenes and going through thousands of hours of CCTV in order to get evidence to arrest offenders. In support of that, the MPS has launched a dedicated public facing webpage displaying the images of people the MPS wants to speak to in connection with the disturbances so that members of the public can assist in identifying them.

11. As of August 24th MPS had arrested almost 2,000 people and charged over 1,130 of them. The large number of arrests is testament to the professionalism and dedication of all the officers involved in this operation. It is also a reflection of the robust approach the MPS has adopted to apprehending those responsible for offences in the disturbances.

12. The response from Londoners has been overwhelming. We have been immensely touched by their support to officers from both London and elsewhere.

13. As the information in this report is for the four months to the end of July, it does not cover period of the violence and disorder from 6th August onwards. Next month’s report will cover the impact of those events on the KPIs.

Summary Of Current Performance

14. The main points are;

• Violence Portfolio - down by 5,682 offences (-10.6%) and within that:
  • The number of victims of homicides fell by 8 in the four month period.
  • There were 2,517 (-10.2%) fewer offences where violent assaults (VWI) took place.
• Property portfolio - up by 5,777 offences (+3.2%)
  • Robbery increased by 2,206 offences (+18.4%)
  • Burglary is up by 2,048 offences (+7.1%),
  • MV crime increased by 307 offences (+0.9%)
  • Criminal damage (with a victim) has 3,882 or 12.9% fewer offences,
• There were 53 (-19.4%) fewer crimes where a firearm was discharged and 73 (-4.9%) fewer crimes where a knife was used to injure.
• Reported hate crime offences are all at lower levels than last year with 1,036 (-5.9%) fewer domestic violence, 819 (-23%), less racist and religious crime and a drop in homophobic crime of 126 offences (-22%).

Violence Portfolio

15. There has been a drop of 5,682 offences or 10.6% in the portfolio as compared to the 2011/12 target of a 2% reduction and the 2013/14 one of a 5% reduction on 2010/11.

16. There have been 8 fewer victims of homicides in the four months to July compared to the same period last year. The number of victims aged 1-19 went down by 5 to 5.

17. Violent assaults where a person suffers a physical injury (VWI) accounts for over 45% of the portfolio and fell by 2,517 or 10.2%. There were also 771 or 4.9% fewer common assaults and 2,133 or 17.5% fewer harassment cases during the period than last year.

18. Weapon enabled crime within the violence portfolio has seen reductions in both gun (22 or 6.3%) and knife offences (135 or 7.3%). Those reductions included ones in crimes where guns were discharged (39 or 17.7%) and those where knives were used to injure (95 or 7.5%).

19. As mentioned previously, the MPS has launched a number of operations against violence, particularly that involving weapons. Examples are Operations Target, Connect, Blunt 2, and Verano. At the same time boroughs have also been focusing on reducing violent crime in their day to day work.

20. This portfolio accounts for most hate crime. Within the portfolio- domestic violence has dropped by 938 (6.6%) offences with falls in racist and homophobic crime of 558 offences (22%) and 46 offences (11.9%) respectively.

21. The violence portfolio sanction detection (SD) rate is 26.7% which is slightly lower than last year when it was 27.2%. The SD rate for VWI is 30.5% which is a little below the rate of 31.7% for the same period last year.

22. In the recent BCS survey MPS came 22nd out of the 42 forces in reducing violence against the person between 2009/10 and 2010/11, with a 5% drop against an average for England & Wales of 6%.

The Number Of Sanction Detections (SDs) For Rape

23. The KPI is focused on the number of SDs for rape rather than the SD rate. During the period there were 161 rape SDs achieved compared to 223 last year, this is a 28% reduction over the same period. Rape offences increased by 6.3% to 1,175 which is 70 more than last year. There has been much debate around the increase in rape offences, a large proportion of which can be attributed to improved reporting and recording practices. Our focus remains on improving the number of SDs by reviewing in partnership with the CPS, their decision making and case management processes and providing the highest level of victim care and support.

24. To help improve the reduction in SDs, SCD2 is developing its working relationship with the CPS. A recent initiative reduced the backlog of rape cases awaiting CPS decisions from 100 to 35 thereby reducing the waiting time for a CPS appointment from 12 weeks to 4. (There are now some 200 cases awaiting completion of action plans set by the CPS prior to charging decisions, but historically very few such cases progress to being charged). A joint work plan has been developed to ensure effective data sharing and performance monitoring, case tracking and timeliness of case file preparation and submission and monitoring of case attrition through the Courts, none of which has been available to date. Preparations are currently under way to enable the London Rape Charging Centre to undertake both charging decisions and the whole prosecution process which raises concerns about their capacity and approach to cases. The CPS are seeking more NFA decisions to be made by the MPS rather than lawyers. A revised SCD2/CPS memorandum of understanding specific for London is being developed to reduce the time taken for cases to be prepared and reviewed and training is being delivered to SCD2 detective sergeants in September re standards of case papers and their gate keeping roles. All files submitted to the CPS are now on the authority of a detective inspector and all CPS action plans are monitored by detective inspectors. New monthly monitoring meetings are being held and additional MPS/CPS data is being collated to enable improved assessment of the quality and timeliness of investigations and prosecutions.

25. As mentioned in the last meeting there was a Domestic & Sexual Violence Board (DSVB) in July to discuss the ongoing review of rape and serious sexual offences with the MPA. The MPA have requested a detailed paper in November on two full year's of SCD2 data and the outcome of the Rape review, including a confidential briefing to members in advance of the public meeting.

The Change In The Number Of People Killed Or Seriously Injured (KSIs) In Road Traffic Collisions

26. The monthly average number of KSIs in the 12 months to April 2011 decreased to 218 compared to 251 during the same period last year. This more than meets the 2% reduction target against the 277 monthly average baseline with a 4.0% reduction. However in the first four months to July 2011 55 people died on the roads in London as compared to 43 last year and 64 the year before.

27. During the period there have been 1,345 drivers disqualified. This is 6.7% or 84 more disqualifications than the same period last year.

28. Among the other contributory actions to the reduction in KSIs is safety camera enforcement work which covers both cameras at speed sites and at automatic traffic signal lights.

29. For 2011/12 the MPS’s goal is to issue 100,000 Notices of Intended Prosecution (NIPs) with at least a 65% positive outturn. During the current financial year to July 2011 performance fell to 32,589 or 8,147 a month which is slightly below the monthly target of 8,333. Performance dropped in the first three months of 2011/12 due to working days lost to bank holidays, IT problems and staff resourcing issues. However in July 9,040 NIPs were issued which is well above the monthly target figure. The positive outturn rate is on target at 65.6%.

30. As mentioned last month the MPS are working with TfL to determine an up to date profile of collisions at camera sites. That profile will inform the strategy being developed with TfL on where the new equipment will be deployed.

Property Portfolio

31. The property portfolio covers most property crime including criminal damage, but excludes fraud and forgery because of national recording issues. During the period there have been 5,777 more offences (+3.2%) compared to the same period in 2010. The target for 2011/12 is for a 1% reduction. This portfolio covers the crime most likely to be affected by the disorders in August.

32. Criminal damage offences with a victim have dropped by 3,882 offences or 12.9%. There have also been declines in business robbery - 49 offences/5.1%, non-residential burglary - 21 offences /0.2%, theft from a vehicle - 315 offences./1.2%, and theft from shops - 948 offences/ 6.5%.

33. Personal robberies have risen by 2,255 (21%) offences and residential burglary is up by 2,069 (11.8%) offences. Theft from person has gone up with 2,610 more crimes (+24%). The number of other thefts are 3,517 (+9%) above last year’s level at this time. 622 (6.8%) more motor vehicles have been stolen this year.

34. Knife enabled personal robbery has risen by 907 offences (40%) and accounts for 24% of all personal robbery offences. However there have been only 31 (14.7%) more personal robberies where a knife has been used to injure - they make up less than 8% of knife robberies. The Home Office’s publication ‘crime in England & Wales 2010/11” showed that while London had a large proportion of crimes involving a knife (12%) because of its high robbery rate, the proportion of robberies involving a knife was the same as the England & Wales average - 21%.

35. The MPS has been using Operation Target to combat property crime. Operation Target has identified 76 wards within the MPS that are subject to an enhanced focus from TP and other business groups. As part of the objective of reducing crime, the Operation aims to design out crime through tactical deployments and resilience based borough and partnership working.

36. The property portfolio sanction detection rate has declined from 11.2% to 10.5%. This is mainly because of 430 fewer cautions and penalty notices for portfolio crimes.

37. According to ‘Crime in England & Wales 2010/11’ recorded robberies went up by 7% in London compared to 2009/10 but 10 forces had higher increases. The MPS had the fewest residential burglaries per capita in the MSF in 2010/11 though it was 37th among all forces. It also had the 10th lowest rate of non-residential burglary as per the same publication.

Anti-social behaviour (ASB) incidents

38. A new national definition of ASB is due to be introduced in August 2011 and so 2011/12 will be a base line for setting future targets. All ASB calls will be classified as either personal, nuisance, or environmental. That will represent a significant change from the current ASB categories. [1]

39. Using the current categories, there were around 188,000 calls relating to anti-social behaviour in the four months to July 2011. As previously mentioned direct comparisons with last year are problematic because a new way of classifying calls was brought in the summer of 2010. As mentioned above there have been almost 3,900 (12.9%) fewer reported criminal damage offences with a victim. While those offences do not encompass the totality of reported ASB, it is very likely that they reflect the general trend in ASB. That downward trend indicates that the hard work of Safer Neighbourhood Teams is impacting positively on local ASB issues.

People who think the local police are doing a good job

40. The percentage of people who think police in their area are doing a good job in the twelve months to June 2011 was 67%. This is 4% greater than the same period last year.

41. For the year ending 2010/11 the BCS found that 59% of respondents in London thought that the local police were doing a good job. This represents the best result in the MSF and the 20th best in England and Wales.

User Satisfaction & Satisfaction Of White & BME Users With The Overall Service

42. The road traffic casualties (RTCs) user group has now been removed from the calculation of user satisfaction with the overall service as a result of revised Home Office guidelines. The overall satisfaction result for 2010/11 without RTCs was 77.0% (vs 78.6% including them). The target for 2011/12 was for a 1% improvement on 2010/11. In order to bring the target and performance into line we propose that the target be amended to 77%+1% = 78% rather than the current 79.6% which was based on including RTCs.

43. Overall user satisfaction now stands at 76%, which is 1% lower than the previous quarter. This decline is mirrored in a decline in satisfaction with police actions, which is the strongest driver of overall satisfaction.

44. The satisfaction gap between White and BME victims has reduced slightly compared to 2010/11. This is due to a slight increase in BME satisfaction and a slight decrease in White satisfaction levels. The current satisfaction gap for the 12 months to June 2011 is 6.5%; however the quarterly figure shows a slightly smaller gap of 4%. Historically the gap has been around 5%.

London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games - Olympic Safety & Security Programme

45. This KPI looks at the status of the five Olympic Safety and Security Strategy Programmes and the three London venue areas vs. achievement of the results set out for them in the Strategy. Depending on the status, the programmes and venues are assessed as red, red/amber, amber, amber/green, or green. The target for the KPI is amber/green which means the most common grade was amber followed by green. Currently, four pan-Olympic programmes are amber/green, the other one is amber and the three London venue programmes are amber.

46. As mentioned previously the MPS has issued the "London 2012 Operating Instructions" which sets out a range of measures to mobilise enough officers and staff to police the Games. These include the rescheduling of rest days, the cancellation of all scheduled training, limiting leave for officers and key staff. When the Games will be taking place (11 June to 23 September) there will be a standardised shift pattern across the whole of Territorial Policing.

Deliver A Balanced Budget For 2011/12 As Per The Policing Plan 2011/14

47. The Commissioner has outlined our vision of a balanced policing model with safety, confidence, and value for money at its core. Within that vision the MPS is committed to delivering excellent policing from tackling ASB and other crime in neighbourhoods through to dealing with terrorist and the most serious criminals often ‘behind the scenes’. However it is doing that within a financial climate of an expected reduction in its spending (compared to 2010/11 budget) of some £600m by 2014/15.

48. To do that the MPS is:

• Reducing its inanimate costs
• Delivering an effective business and operational model including:
  • Undertaking process improvement activity
  • Sharing services with and across the MPS
  • Exploring a range of outsourcing and joint ventures
• Only then reducing operational officers and PCSOs.

49. The Policing London Business Plan (PLPB) 2011-14 has identified significant savings that will balance the budget for 2011/12 but additional economies need to be found for 2011/12 and 2013/14.

50. The scale of the challenge is:

51. About three quarters of the MPS’s revenue expenditure is on pay. The approved establishment, pending decisions on further savings in future years as reflected in the PLBP is:

52. Action underway to achieve savings:

• Major change programmes now well established and being progressed with appropriate corporate infrastructure in place to track progress and identify and manage interdependencies and risk.
• Early departure schemes developed and in operation using earmarked reserves established for this purpose.
• Star chambers established to monitor and control staff vacancies and officer deployment.
• Financial monitoring being amended to manage and control capital and revenue budgets more effectively with increased focus on major change programmes.
• Developing indicators that can be tracked for:
  • People: Percentage of Senior Management & Supervision ratios
  • Property : Estate Size
  • Transport: No of vehicles
  • Procurement: Level of spend below £1m covered by contracts
• Development of the 2012-2015 Policing London Business Plan already underway

53. The general risks to achieving the necessary savings;

• Non-delivery of major change programmes and/or double counting of savings. Budget includes some resilience to cover such costs;
• Additional pressures placed on the service both operationally and financially e.g. Royal Wedding, State Visits, increased public order/protest events, withdrawal of partnership funding;
• Additional costs of recent disorder if not recompensed by Government.
• Enactment of the Police and Social Responsibility Bill which will result in additional in year costs for which there is no specific provision;
• Less resources than anticipated (£11m) being available to support 2010/11 and 2011/12 budget spend when the 2010/11 accounts are closed.

54. The specific risks identified at Period 3 are:

• A continuing over-strength position within Territorial Policing and management of the reductions driven through the TP Development Programme.
• Business Groups are forecasting a year-end Police Officer strength of 32,151 which is slightly above the corporate estimate of 31,831 presented to Management Board within the Deployment Plan update paper on 27 July. Following discussions with the MPA Chairman, work is ongoing to assess options to deliver the required year end target of 32,230.
• Later than planned finalisation of match-funding arrangements and other cost-sharing posts resulting in reduced income.
• In-year budget pressures on the delivery of a number of major change programmes.
• A potential budget pressure between the estimated cost of the early departure programme and the earmarked reserves available.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Race and Equality Impact

1. The regular review of the statistics provided enables the MPS to highlight areas for diversity and equality consideration and address them accordingly.

Consideration of MET Forward

2. The KPIs and other corporate measures covered in this report reflect performance against the key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

3. The Policing London Business Plan 2011-14 was approved by the MPA Full Authority on 31 March 2011, with a balanced budget position for 2011/12. More work is required to close budget gaps of £92.7m in 2012/13 and £174.3m in 2013/14.

4. The full-year forecast position at Period 3 for 2011/12 is an over-spend of £14.3m (0.5% of budget).

5. The Capital Programme as at the end of Period 3 shows year to date expenditure of £29.5m. This total represents 15.8% of the annual budget of £186.3m.

Legal Implications

6. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

7. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

8. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

9. The Strategic Operational Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

Environmental Implications

10. This report contains no direct environmental implications.

Risk Implications

11. Risks and opportunities identified in related to performance against the KPIs are reflected in the content of this report.

D. Background papers

None

D. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, MPS Performance and Strategy Unit, Deputy Commissioner’s Portfolio

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

Acronym List

ASB

Anti-social behaviour

BME

Black and Minority Ethnic

CPS

Crown prosecution service

DVSB

Domestic and Sexual Violence Board

DV

Domestic Violence

KPIs

Key Performance Indicators

KSI

Killed or Seriously Injured

MPA

Metropolitan Police Authority

MPS

Metropolitan Police Service

MV

Motor Vehicle

NIP

Notice of Intended Prosecution

PLPB

Policing London Business Plan

RTC

Road traffic casualty

SCD2

The unit of the MPS that investigates serious sexual offences

SD

Sanction Detections

TfL

Transport for London

TP

Territorial Police

VWI

Violence With Injury

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