Review of the Resource Allocation Formula (RAF) 2005/06

Report: 4
Date: 19 July 2004
By: Commissioner

Summary

This report provides an overview for members on the progress of the review of the formula to date. It sets out the proposed scope and content of the two main components of the formula, need and demand, and discusses the implications of applying the outcomes of the formula.

A. Recommendations

1. Members note the progress on the review against the agreed project timescales;
2. Members agree the content and structure of the need and demand components of the formula; and
3. Members note the issues around the implementation of the formula outcomes if the committee wishes to retain the aspiration of no BOCU losing resources.

B. Supporting information

Context and current position

1. The MPA Co-ordination and Policing (COP) Committee acts as the project board for the review of the Resource Allocation Formula (RAF). The committee last discussed the review in May when members agreed an allocation methodology for Police Community Support Officers (PCSOs) based largely on the relative size of borough resident populations and a number of security posts.

2. In June members were invited to an informal briefing on the progress of the review to provide background and context for the benefit of new members and an update for existing members. Attached at Appendix 1 is a summary of the presentation made by the RAF project team at that briefing which includes the aims of the current review, the terms of reference, the consultation strategy, the project plan and the proposed components of the emerging formula.

3. The project plan contained within Appendix 1 is split into two parts; the first showing the activities that have taken place within the review up to the end of June 2004 and the second setting out the key events and milestones from now until the results of the formula are implemented in 2005/06. The project is still operating to time and budget agreed by this committee in November 2003.

4. The present position on the review can most easily be expressed in terms of:

• the consultation process with identified stakeholders
• the development and modelling of the new formula, and
• the application of the formula and the implementation of the outcomes

Consultation

The identified stakeholders of the review include MPA members, GLA members, the Mayor, London MPs, local authority chief executives, council leaders, crime & disorder reduction partnerships, CPCGs, the MPS Management Board, BOCU commanders and staff associations. Many of these stakeholders have taken part in the formula development workshops that have been used to debate the issues of concern and to assist the construction of the new formula.

The project team has also organised tailored briefings to specialist groups or individuals when a need has been identified or a request made. Regular update bulletins on the review will continue to be forwarded to all the identified stakeholders.

Development and modelling of the new formula

The modelling of the new formula has been informed by the results of a questionnaire developed by the team and completed by stakeholders in 2003 and shaped by the formula development workshops that have taken place between January and June this year.

The workshops have been constructed in such a way that all 32 boroughs have been represented and with a cross section of stakeholder groups and boroughs at each workshop. This has enabled a range of perspectives to be considered and differing viewpoints expressed. The modelling of the formula has also taken account of the views of MPS practitioners with day to day knowledge and experience.

Application of the formula

The project board agreed within the terms of reference that the review should consider extending the application of RAF beyond solely police officers to include police staff, PCSOs, vehicles and other locally managed budget lines where appropriate. The intention is that each BOCU will receive a budgetary allocation in 2005/06, based on RAF, from which each BOCU Commander will be able to select the most appropriate mix of resources for that borough in accordance with the Devolution Programme guidance.

The implementation of the results of the formula, including potential options and implications, will be discussed later in this paper.

Need and demand components

Need

5. The need component is intended to reflect the longer term social and environmental factors that affect the need for policing on boroughs. The component moderates the year on year fluctuations in crimes and incidents that are measured within the reactive policing component (Demand).

6. The stakeholders attending the formula development workshops identified a total of 11 indicators that they considered generate a need for policing, these are attached at Appendix 2. Many of these indicators such as deprivation are closely associated with crime levels, while others reflect the added complexity of policing such as diverse communities and the differing shape and locations of boroughs that affect the ability to deploy resources effectively.

7. At Appendix 3 is a more detailed scope of each need indicator that outlines:

• what is being defined and represented by the indicator
• the policing issues identified as associated with that indicator
• the potential measures of that indicator

The project team is continuing to investigate the most appropriate measures on some of the indicators particularly where there is more than one issue that is being captured.

8. The next step to be completed in modelling the need component is to design a methodology to assess how each of the respective indicators affects the need for policing e.g. how much alcohol abuse generates a need for policing services compared with the underlying drug use taking place on a borough. The statistical technique known as regression analysis, which is used in the existing formula, has been considered but this has been found not to be suitable if members wish to retain the list of 11 indicators agreed by the stakeholders.

9. The project team is therefore developing an apportionment model for this component that makes it possible to include all the indicators according to their respective potential impact on the need for policing. The benefits of this approach for such a varied range of indicators are:

• All indicators can be included since there is no attempt to regress them with offences
• Greater transparency - any borough can see how they score against any given indicator
• As recorded crime is not being used there is no issue about replicating demand
• Weightings can be applied that reflect the complexity of policing
• It is possible to take account of victims and people affected by the crime which more accurately reflects the wider need for policing

10. This method does not directly rely on statistical techniques such as regression but is based on professional judgement, informed by academic research, statistical analysis (including regression), and police knowledge and experience. The apportionment methodology was endorsed as the most desirable by the stakeholders keen to retain all 11 indicators identified through the workshop process.

Demand

11. The demand component is intended to reflect the response element of policing and incorporates the initial police response to an incident or crime, the subsequent investigation where appropriate and the prisoner processing and post charge activity carried out by police officers.

12. This component captures all the reported incidents and crimes taking place on a borough and records what police are actually dealing with on a daily basis. It is a significant enhancement on the existing formula since it will now capture the investigative workload associated with all screened in crime and will also recognise workload involved for BOCU officers around the criminal justice processes for the first time.

13. The project team has also utilised practitioners on BOCUs who are responsible for performing these reactive roles on a day to day basis such as call handlers, crime investigators and custody officers. These officers have been able to share their knowledge and experience and provide the project team with an informed view on the relative workload associated with various activities.

14. The demand component has been modelled in four phases as shown in the diagram attached at Appendix 4, i.e. initial response, crime investigation, prisoner processing and post charge activity. Within each phase activities have been weighted according to the relative workload associated with them e.g. rape investigation is significantly more resource intensive than burglary. Finally, the four discrete phases will be weighted relative to each other to complete the component based on resources utilised at each phase.

Need and demand high level weightings

15. If the committee approves the structure and content of the need and demand components of the model the project team will propose a recommendation of how these components should be weighted against each other. Members will then be able to debate these high level weightings, which will have a significant influence on the final allocations.

Application and implementation issues

16. As the RAF is an apportionment model it is designed to allocate a finite pot of resources between BOCUs. In the terms of reference agreed by this project board in November 2003 members indicated that they would wish to see an implementation of the results retaining the spirit of ‘no losers’ which had underpinned the authority’s implementation of the existing formula in 2002. Members might wish to consider whether this is still realistic in light of the additional funding requirements that will be needed to sustain the Step Change Programme and, in particular, the Safer Neighbourhoods initiative. This will help to inform the exemplifications which will be brought before the committee in due course.

Next steps

17. The RAF project team will:

• Circulate the structure of the Need component to local Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships for comment.
• Consolidate the modelling of the remaining components of the formula (Opening the shop and capital city).
• Review other resources such as the allocation of police staff.

C. Race and equality impact

There are diversity issues being considered within the Need component of the formula (see paragraphs 5-9 of this paper). These issues are being circulated to CDRPs for comment.

D. Financial implications

The financial implications to this project relate both to the direct cost to the budget estimated at 100k, primarily falling in financial year 2004/05, and the transfer of resources between borough OCUs.

E. Background papers

None.

F. Contact details

Report author: Michael Debens, Corporate Planning Group

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

Appendix 1

Aims of the review

• Fair and equitable process for the allocation of resources
• Transparent and accountable
• Listen to stakeholders and practitioners
• Use stakeholders as a resource
• Enhance the existing formula (modelling, datastreams)
• Extend application beyond police officers

Outside the terms of the review

• Resources allocated to TP business group as a proportion of the rest of the MPS
• Allocation of resources to BOCUs as a proportion of that allocated to TP as a whole
• Allocation of resources to specialist units
• Allocation of capital expenditure budgets

Consultation strategy

• Questionnaire to all identified stakeholders August 2003
• Stakeholder active involvement in formula development workshops
• All key stakeholder groups and boroughs participating
• Extensiveness of consultation means we capture critical issues
• Continuity of workshop participants
• Iterative process of model development

Components of the formula

• Need: The longer term social & environmental factors that affect the need for policing on boroughs
• Demand: The short term policing response and subsequent investigation
• Opening the shop: The core infrastructure and mandatory posts necessary on a BOCU
• Capital city allocation: To address activities associated with London as a capital city

Project plan

Appendix 2: RAF need component – list of indicators

Definition of need: defined as the longer term social and environmental factors that affect the need for policing on boroughs (intended to smooth out year-on-year fluctuations in crimes and incidents).

1.  Alcohol abuse/Night time population
2. Deprivation
3. Diverse communities, community tensions
4. Drugs
5. Future commercial and residential development
6. Geography
7. Mental illness
8. Retail activity
9. Transient population excluding night-time population associated with licensed premises (see above)
10. Young people, schools
11. Young people with low educational attainment

Appendix 3: Need component – indicators and measures

NOTE: the Need indicators below are listed in alphabetical order, not in order of importance.

1. Alcohol abuse/Night time population

Definition

Behaviours associated with alcohol consumption, binge drinking and alcohol abuse. Late night disorder, night time population

Issues

• Late night town centre disorder, including violent crime
• Other public order issues associated with alcohol consumption
• Predictor of violence (e.g. domestic violence)
• People under the influence of alcohol are more difficult to deal with
• Officer safety issue, victim/witness safety

Measure

Number of licensed premises (pubs, clubs and discos) under and over 300 capacity available from Fire Service. Still waiting for number of licensed premises (pubs, clubs and discos) under 300 capacity.

2. Deprivation

Definition

Social disadvantage, poverty, unemployment

Issues

• Levels of crime tend to correlate with levels of deprivation, both in terms of victimisation and perpetrators.

Measure

Latest Local Index of Multiple Deprivation data available. Includes:

• Income deprivation
• Employment deprivation
• Health deprivation and disability
• Education, skills and training deprivation

3. Diverse communities, community tensions

Definition

Community defined as an identifiable group of people, based on, e.g.: colour, race, nationality, citizenship, ethnic or national origins, gender, disability, religion, language, age, sexual orientation

Issues

• Tensions that affect these communities (e.g. young and old, LGBT)
• Issue regarding recently arrived communities, which could attract hostility from established communities. This may lead to a greater need for policing, e.g. conflicts, hate crimes.
• Impact on community cohesion
• Victimisation e.g. harassment
• Vulnerable victims
• Greater likelihood to under-report crimes, e.g. hate crime
• Mistrust of the police
• There may be added complexity in dealing with victims and perpetrators (e.g. language, cultural barriers)
• Potential for certain types of crimes

Measures

The GLA/MPA and MPS have a list of 8 minority groups (young, old, disabled, ethnic minorities, refugees and asylum seekers, travellers, LGBT, faith).

• Religion, ethnicity, country of origin, age and gender all available from ONS (Census)
• Received PLASC figures on English as a second language by borough of school, awaiting figures by borough of residence.
• Number of asylum applicants in receipt of subsistence only support from the National Asylum Support Service, and supported in National Asylum Support Service accommodation, available for 2002 from ONS.
• Population mobility (churn, related to community cohesion) can be derived from ONS migration data (number of people who moved into, out of and within each borough in the last year).
• Statistics on disability, sexual orientation, travellers and community cohesion are not available.

4. Drugs

Definition

The underlying drug problem i.e. drug abuse and drug dealing which cannot be adequately reflected elsewhere in the formula.

Issues

• Relationship between drug use and other crimes
• Drug markets (quality of life issue, feeling of safety, magnet for drug users and dealers)
• Dysfunctional behaviour associated with drug abuse may add a degree of complexity to the whole spectrum of police activity, e.g. officer safety issue, difficult to reason with the individual
• Added resource intensiveness in each interaction, more likely to require a greater number of interactions in the long run (e.g. less likely to turn up at court, to pay fines)

Measures

• The number of people receiving treatment is available for 2003/04 both by borough of treatment and by borough of residence. These figures refer to people who are seeking treatment, who may not all come to police notice. They do not capture where drug addicts buy drugs, however boroughs with high numbers of individuals receiving treatment are also those which anecdotally have large drug markets.
• The estimated number of problematic drug users in each borough is available.

5. Future commercial and residential developments

Definition

• Future resident population, size and type
• Future major business and commercial enterprises that could be magnets for transient population and disorder, e.g. retail parks, leisure facilities, new transport facilities

Issues

The issues are the same as those with current resident and transient population:

• Characteristics of population (see deprivation, etc)
• Volume of population (the greater the population, the greater the number of potential victims and perpetrators)
• Future licensing/retail activity: see alcohol abuse and retail activity
• Crime related to development phase. This aspect does not reflect an underlying need for policing. It may be best suited to the Demand component of the formula, as it represents a more temporary demand on police resources.

Measures

• Population projection being researched, RAF team liaising with GLA DMAG
• Received details of planning permissions for all boroughs, also requested start date for each development.

6. Geography

Definition

The surface area, the shape, the location on the boundary of the MPS

Issues

• Deployment/redeployment of BOCU officers
• Difficulty in obtaining rapid support from central units, e.g. Territorial Support Group (TSG) and Armed Response Vehicles (ARVs)
• Officer safety issues

Measures

• Sparsity, road length, geographical area, response time, length of axis, only capture part of the issue.
• RAF team to devise an appropriate ratio that takes account of length of axes, their ratio, the presence of barriers and the location of police stations.

7. Mental illness

Definition

Mental illness or personality disorder that may cause behaviour which is likely to either generate incidents and/or add complexity to dealing with incidents.

Issues

• Added degree of complexity to dealing with incidents involving people with a mental illness, both as victims and as offenders (the greater the propensity for mental illness on a borough, the greater the likelihood that dealing with incidents will be more complex).
• More likely to be the subject of a missing persons enquiry
• Relationship with victimisation
• There is a relationship between severe mental illness and violent behaviour
• Large volume of incidents caused by dysfunctional behaviour associated with a wide spectrum of mental disorders

Measure

The Mental Illness Need Index (MINI index) is the only source of data that is readily available, comprehensive, and at borough level. It is derived from individual domain scores from the DETR Index of Multiple Deprivation 2000.

8. Retail activity

Crime associated with business/ commercial premises will in general be captured under the Demand element of RAF. However retail activity and the associated premises (e.g. food outlets) acts as a magnet for other offending behaviour.

Definition

Retail premises as crime targets and magnets for crime and anti-social behaviour

Issues

• Volume crime issue: retail premises (e.g. shopping centres) can attract offenders (visitors as potential victims), and the premises can be targets of crime, e.g. shoplifting, credit card fraud, theft by employees, criminal damage.

Measures

• Pilot Study carried out by the ODPM and the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL “Producing Boundaries and Statistics for Town Centres”.
• Retail sector employment provided by the GLA

9. Transient population excluding night-time population associated with licensed premises (see above)

Definition

How the population on a borough varies from the resident population, includes commuters, tourists, leisure. Alternative to resident population measure.

Issues

• There is a link between the size of population and the number of potential victims and perpetrators.
• Added vulnerability of certain transient populations e.g. tourists
• Added degree of complexity in dealing with non-resident population who have been victims of crime (especially if visitors from abroad)
• Disorder associated with certain sporting events

Measures

• Number of visitors to London’s top tourist attractions
• London Area Transport Survey figures are available at borough level, they include public transport and car travel, and can be broken down by day-time and night-time travel (however they are only representative of weekday travel).

10. Young people, schools

Definition

Young people between the ages of 11 and 16

Issues

• Young people are at risk of both offending and victimisation
• Crime prevention, advice and diversion activity around young people

Measure

Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC) data received for number of pupils per borough of school. Waiting for data per borough of residence.

11. Young people with low educational attainment

Definition

Young people who display low educational and cognitive performance, or have an increased likelihood to engage in persistent truanting or to be permanently excluded

Issues

• Educational attainment is a good indicator of future socio-economic status and of current and future involvement in anti-social behaviour/delinquency/criminal activity.
• Educational attainment may be related to certain cognitive characteristics that make an individual more likely to be involved in anti-social behaviour, including sense of self worth, impulsivity, difficulty in thinking ahead, etc...
• Anti-social behaviour is related to truancy and exclusion.
• Additional workload: young people requiring additional assistance (e.g. appropriate adult)
• Diversion, prevention

Measures

• Received PLASC data on permanent exclusion, English KS2L4, truancy and GCSE passes per borough of school
• Expecting data on temporary exclusion, and pupils with individual education plans

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