Borough crime performance: April 2006 to March 2007

Report: 10
Date: 17 May 2007
By: AC Territorial Policing on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This report provides an overview of key performance indicators for MPS boroughs for the financial year 2006/07 compared with FY 2005/06. It examines performance against BCS comparator crime and relevant critical performance areas. It also provides an external perspective via iQuanta. Longer-term trend data is from FY 2002/03 unless stated.

A. Recommendation

That members note the report.

B. Supporting information

British Crime Survey (BCS) comparator crime (chart 1a & 1b)

1. BCS offences across the MPS were down by -6.8%, recording over 38,000 fewer offences for FY 06/07 against FY 05/06. Every month this year recorded the lowest number of BCS offences for that particular month in over three years (since the measure was introduced by the Home Office in April 2003). Each month in FY 06/07 recorded fewer than 48,000 offences.

2. The MPS has seen a steady reduction in BCS offences since April 2003, with the exception of Apr – Dec 2005 when levels evened out for a few months. By the end of FY 06/07 the MPS had achieved a reduction of –13.4% (over 82,000 less offences) against the baseline (FY 03/04). This reduction was achieved mainly by reductions of –6.3% in year 1 (FY 04/05) and –6.8% year 3 (FY 06/07).

3. Thirty boroughs ended FY 06/07 recording fewer BCS offences than in FY 05/06, with six boroughs recording reductions over 10% and a further 16 recording reductions of over 5%. Boroughs with the largest reductions were Kingston upon Thames –16.4% (-1,462 offences), Barnet down –15.9% (-3,277 offences), Bexley –15.3% (-1,954), Hackney down –14.8% (-3,205 offences), Richmond upon Thames down –12.4% (-1,188 offences) and Haringey –10.6% (-2,206 offences).

4. Fourteen boroughs have achieved reductions every year since the BCS measure was introduced. Of these Lambeth and Southwark have seen a strong and steady reduction throughout the last three years achieving reductions over –5% each year. A further three boroughs have achieved reductions over –4% each year, Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster and Hounslow.

5. Only two boroughs ended FY 06/07 recording an increase; Sutton up 0.7% (62 offences) and Camden up 6.4% (1,395 offences).

Personal robbery (chart 2a & 2b)

6. Across the MPS personal robbery ended FY 06/07 with 21 fewer offences than in FY 05/06.

7. Personal robbery dropped by -21% in FY 02/03 against FY 01/02. It then saw slow reductions until FY 05/06 when an increase of 15% was seen although this still left levels lower than those in FY 01/02.

8. Reductions were recorded in 18 boroughs in FY 06/07, including eight with reductions over 10%. Waltham Forest saw the largest reduction in both volume and percentage terms down -21% (-471 offences). Lambeth is the only borough to have seen a reduction every year in the last four years.

9. The most notable increases in FY 06/07 were in Greenwich up 21% (237 offences), Ealing up 21% (394 offences) Bromley up 21% (174 offences) and Camden up 25% (304 offences). Greenwich is the only borough to have seen an increase every year.

Residential burglary (chart 3a & 3b)

10. The MPS ended FY 06/07 with a reduction of –6.6%, over 4,000 less offences than in FY 05/06 and a total of less than 60,000 offences. This is the lowest number of offences for over 10 years.

11. Since FY 02/03 the MPS has seen a total reduction of -17% in Residential Burglary (over 12,000 less offences). Reductions were seen in FY 03/04 (-6%) and FY 04/05 (-7%) as well as in FY 06/07.

12. Reductions were recorded in twenty-five boroughs in FY 06/07, including three with reductions of over -20%, Hackney, Richmond upon Thames and Tower Hamlets. Hackney is seeing the largest reduction in both volume and percentage terms down -25% (-626 offences).

13. Five boroughs have recorded year-on-year reductions since FY 02/03, Hackney, Haringey, Lambeth, Southwark and Sutton. Of these, Hackney is the only borough to have seen reductions over -5% each year.

14. Only Wandsworth recorded an increase of over 10% in FY 06/07, ending the year up 22% (480 offences).

Vehicle crime (chart 4a & 4b)

15. The MPS ended FY 06/07 with a -5.8% reduction in motor vehicle crime. Over 8,000 offences fewer than in FY 05/06 and a total of less than 130,000 offences. This is the lowest number of offences in over nine years. The reduction in offence levels is very different between theft of vehicles and theft from vehicles, theft of vehicles has reduced by –13.5% while theft from vehicles has reduced by -2.3%.

16. Twenty-three boroughs have recorded a decrease in Vehicle Crime, these include, Bexley down –26% (-726 offences) and Hackney down –22% (-1,160 offences), Islington down –19% (-1,091 offences), Tower Hamlets down –18% (-958 offences) and Barnet down –16% (-1,020 offences). All except Islington (0% change in theft of vehicle) have seen large reductions in both theft of vehicle and theft from vehicle.

17. Nine boroughs have recorded increases in vehicle crime. These include Camden up 17% (816 offences) and Hillingdon up 20% (891 offences). No other borough had an increase of over 400 offences.

18. Theft of vehicle is down –13.5% (nearly 6,000 less offences) FY 06/07 against FY 05/06 with only three boroughs showing an increase. Kensington & Chelsea up 2% (14 offences), Camden 10% (114 offences) and Hillingdon 13% (197 offences).

19. Theft of vehicle has seen an excellent downward trend over the last five years seeing a total reduction of -36% (over 20,000 less offences) in FY 06/07 compared to FY 02/03. The last three years have all seen reductions over -9.5%. Thirteen boroughs have recorded reductions over –40% since FY 02/03 including Westminster down -50% and Lambeth down -51%.

20. Thirteen boroughs have seen year-on-year reductions every year since FY 02/03, including three boroughs Haringey, Lambeth and Tower Hamlets with reductions over -5% each year.

21. Theft from vehicle is down –2.3% (over 2,000 less offences) FY 06/07 against FY 05/06. Fourteen boroughs have recorded increases in theft from Motor Vehicle, these included Waltham Forest, Hillingdon and Camden all with increase of over 500 offences.

22. Theft from vehicle has seen a reduction of -20% (over 22,000 offences) FY 06/07 compared to FY 02/03. It saw a good reduction in FY 03/04, down –10% and FY 04/05 down –15%, however an increase was then recorded in FY 05/06 although offences levels remained below those of FY 03/04. Only two boroughs have seen reductions every year, Hackney and Lambeth. No borough has recorded increases every year.

BCS assaults (BCS wounding & common assault) (chart 5a & 5b)

23. The MPS ended FY 06/07 with a –7.7% reduction, over 10,000 fewer offences than in FY 05/06. The change in offence levels is similar between BCS wounding (down –7.2%, over 6,000 fewer offences) and common assault (down –8.4%, over 4,000 fewer offences).

24. Since FY 03/04 (when this measure was introduced), the MPS has seen a total reduction of -6% in BCS assaults (over 8,500 fewer offences). A reduction was seen in FY 05/06 (-3%) as well as FY 06/07.

25. Reductions are being recorded in 28 boroughs, including Haringey and Brent with reductions over 15%. Brent is seeing the largest reduction in both volume and percentage terms down –17% (-935 offences). No borough saw an increase over 5%.

26. Four boroughs have recorded year-on-year reductions since the introduction of this measure in FY 03/04, Hounslow, Kingston upon Thames, Lambeth and Newham. Of these, Hounslow is the only borough to have seen reductions over -5% each year.

Other BCS offences

27. Criminal Damage ended FY 06/07 with a reduction of -6.8% (over 8,000 less offences).

28. Since FY 02/03 the MPS has seen a total reduction of -21% in criminal damage (over 30,000 fewer offences). After seeing a rise in FY 03/04 offences have fallen every year since.

29. Nine Boroughs achieved reductions in criminal damage over -10% in FY 06/07 and only four ended the year with an increase none of which were over 5%.

30. Nine boroughs have recorded year-on-year reductions for criminal damage since FY 02/03, including Lambeth and Westminster with reductions over -5% each year.

31. Theft person ended FY 06/07 down –11.0% (over 4,500 offences). Both pick pocketing and snatch thefts are seeing a reduction, pick pocketing is down –10.6% (nearly 3,000 fewer offences) and snatch theft is down –11.8% (over 1,700 fewer offences).

32. A total of 28 boroughs saw a reduction, including Barnet down –57% (571 offences). Camden was the only borough to see an increase over 7%, up 25% (780 offences). Picking pockets accounted for nearly all that increase.

33. Since FY 02/03, the MPS has seen a total reduction of –27% in theft person (nearly 14,000 less offences). Offences have fallen every year except FY 05/06.

34. Theft of pedal cycle is currently seeing a reduction, down –12.2% (over 2,500 fewer offences). 27 boroughs ended the year with a reduction including Kingston upon Thames, Merton, Barnet and Hillingdon with reductions over 30%. Only five boroughs recorded an increase, Waltham Forest is the only borough with an increase over 5%, ending the year with a 35% increase (95 offences).

35. Theft of pedal cycle increased every year between FY 02/03 and FY 05/06. Offences levels then fell in FY 06/07 and ended the year with levels below those of FY 03/04.

Total notifiable offences (TNO) sanctioned detection (SD) rate (chart 6a & 6b)

36. The MPS ended the year with a TNO sanction detection rate of 21.1% against a target of 20%. 28 boroughs achieved the 20% target, four finished the year with rates over 24%, Haringey, Sutton, Brent and Kingston upon Thames. Only two boroughs ended the year with a rate under 19.8%, Greenwich (18.1%) and Camden (17.3%).

37. Sanction detection rates have risen every year since FY02/03, when the rate was only 12.6%. In the last two years sanction detection rates have risen by over 3 percentage points in each year.

Offenders brought to justice (OBJT) (chart 7)

38. This measure (includes City of London) exceeded the target of 185,000 by 8% bringing a total of over 200,000 offenders brought to justice during FY 06/07. Over the last three years, the number of offenders brought to justice has increased every year. Increasing the number of people brought to justice by over 60,000 in FY 06/07 compared to FY 03/04.

39. Six boroughs exceeded their targets by over 10%, Enfield by 11% (548 offenders), Brent by 11% (732 offenders), Hillingdon by 15% (769 offenders), Westminster by 15% (2,066 offenders), Sutton by 22% (672 offenders) and Kingston upon Thames by 28% (780 offenders).

Gun crime (chart 8a & 8b)

40. The MPS ended FY 06/07 with a reduction of –11.3% against a target of –4%, a reduction of over 400 offences.

41. Since FY 02/03 the MPS has recorded a reduction of -21% in gun crime, down by nearly 900 offences. A reduction has been seen every year with the exception of FY 05/06, when an increase of 4% was recorded.

42. Ten boroughs saw reductions of over 20% in FY 06/07; these included Kingston upon Thames down -58% (30 less offences) and Hackney with the highest volume reduction down by 92 offences (-37%). Nine boroughs saw an increase, the highest volume increase was seen at Newham up 32 offences (18%).

Domestic violence (DV) arrest rate (chart 9)

43. The MPS ended FY 06/07 with a DV arrest rate of 45% against a target of 40%. 26 boroughs met the target including twelve with over 50%. Havering had the highest arrest rate with 67%. Only Hackney had a rate less 35%.

44. This measure was introduced in FY 05/06 when the rate was 33%.

Overall satisfaction (chart 10)

45. At the time of writing this report, satisfaction data is only available up to December 2006. The MPS has achieved an overall satisfaction level of 79% April – Dec 2006, against a target of 81%. Twelve boroughs achieved satisfaction levels of 80% or above including Merton with an 85% satisfaction rate.

46. The overall satisfaction level for victims increased from 68% in FY 04/05 to 79% FY 05/06, the rate for Apr – Dec 06 has remained stable at 79%.

Race hate victim satisfaction

47. The percentage of race hate victims satisfied rose in FY 05/06 to 73% from 59% in FY 04/05. This has fallen back to 62% Apr – Dec 2006.

Criminal networks disrupted

48. The MPS disrupted 172 criminal networks during FY 06/07 against a target of 100.

IQuanta update to March 2007

49. Merton and Kingston-upon-Thames were the only two areas nationally to have been flagged by PPSG for strong performance in crime reduction. This is the third time that Merton has been flagged and the second report on which it has also shown performance ahead of trajectory for its PSA 1 target.

50. Camden was one of four BCU/CDRP areas flagged nationally over two consecutive PPSG (Home Office Police Performance Steering Group) reports (i.e. four months) for under performance (significant rises in crime and a significant gap to peers). Camden has already been identified on the list of 44 CDRPs nationally as being critical to the delivery of PSA1.

C. Race and equality impact

Although there were varying borough performances, the MPS remains committed to making the whole of London safer. Furthermore, implications of performance against individual targets are considered in the in-depth performance reports throughout the year, which examine performance at the corporate level. Within the TP monitoring framework there is recognition of diversity issues relevant to the basket of performance measures, where particular attention is paid to crimes against women and crimes against specific communities, which receive significant consideration.

D. Financial implications

There are no financial or resource implications of the current work.

E. Background papers

None

F. Contact details

Report author: Commander Paul Minton, SE Link and Performance, TPHQ, MPS.

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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