Headline Performance report 2010/11

Report: 7
Date: 11 November 2010
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This paper describes performance in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and other corporate measures compared to their 2010/11 targets in the Policing London Business Plan 2010–13 for the six months to 30 September 2010.

A. Recommendation

That

1. Members note the 2010/11 performance in the indicators shown in the Policing Plan against their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an overview of how the MPS is performing in the financial year 2010/11 to 30 September 2010 against the targets set for 2010/11 in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2010 -13. The Plan’s primary goals are to reduce crime and increase public confidence in the MPS. The comparisons in the report are for April to September compared to the same period in 2009/10 unless otherwise stated.

Report structure

2. The body of the report focuses on how the KPIs are performing against targets and against the same period last year. It has 2 appendices:

• KPIs - the corporate ‘key’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1).
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-KPI corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2).

The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

• Red - performance off target and worse than at the same time last year
• Amber - performance off target but better than at the same time last year
• Green - performance is on or better than target.

Current performance focus

Summary

3. This report includes data up to the half-year point. Overall, the MPS is making good progress.

4. In general violence has reduced since last year. The number of most serious violence and assault with injury (MSV + AWI) offences has fallen by almost 1,700 crimes or -4.4%. Gun crime has declined by 262 offences. Turning to the more serious weapons offences, there were 37 (8.3%) fewer crimes where a firearm was discharged and 81 (3.6%) less times when a knife was used to injure.

5. There have been 32 fewer deaths from road accidents this year than last.

6. Residential burglary continues to be significantly lower than last year with a reduction of more than 2,500 burglaries.

7. The targets for the sanction detection (SD) rates for domestic violence, racist and religious crime and homophobic crime are all being achieved as is the domestic violence arrest rate.

8. Robbery is showing an increase of 746 offence / 4.6% and knife crime has also gone up by 182 (2.9%) crimes because of the rise in knife robberies (279 offences / +8.3%). Operation Blunt 2 remains the primary central initiative to combat knife crime which overlaps to a great extent with personal robbery. A big challenge for October and early November will be the traditional seasonal rises in robbery during the Halloween/Guy Fawkes Night period. Operation Autumn Nights is being launched to deal with that threat.

9. The MPS like the rest of the public sector, is facing very challenging times in responding to the budget reductions announced in the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) on 20 October. The full impact of the CSR on the MPS will not be known for some time. The MPS however remains committed to continuing to deliver a better policing service for less and to do all it can to maintain its operational capability. We will be streamlining our business support and making best use of our operational assets in pursuit of that goal.

Confidence in local policing, User Satisfaction and Satisfaction of white & BME victims with the overall service provided

10. The data for these KPIs will be available for the next meeting of this Committee.

Policing Pledge Promises

11. There is a separate report to this meeting on developing a replacement for the Pledge Promises.

Serious Acquisitive Crime (SAC)

12. There have been 1,158/ -1.2% fewer serious acquisitive crimes (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary), missing the 3.2% reduction target.

13. Residential burglaries have fallen by 2,567 equating to -8.7% and so meeting the -4% target. The first six months of 2010/11 are tied with the same period in 2008/09 for having the fewest residential burglaries since 1998/99.

14. There have been 746 / 4.6% more robbery offences for this six month period and so the target of a 3.0 % reduction is not being met. Although this year is higher than last year and the year before, it is worth remembering that this year has the third fewest robberies for the first half of the year since 2000/01.

15. Personal robbery is 6.3% above last year’s level. Para 22 below notes that the MPS has caught more of these offenders this year. Operation Blunt 2 continues to be the main central operation against knife crime of which knife enabled personal robbery is a major component. Two of its significant activities are concerted action against people wanted for robbery and, as previously reported, Operation Vinco which provides unmarked (Q) cars to detect and reduce robbery. Through Operation Autumn Nights there will be extra resources and bespoke borough plans to cover the Halloween and Guy Fawkes weekends and half term, when robbery is traditionally high.

16. Business robberies have fallen by 194 offences / -12.5%. Within that category there has been a decline of a third in cash in transit robberies with 89 fewer this year (268 for 2009/10 to 179 for 2010/11). The decline in these robberies is likely to be attributable in part to partnership working and the targeting of offenders through Operation Vanguard.

17. Knife robberies have risen by 279 (8.3%) and robberies not involving a gun or knife have gone up by 587 (4.8%) but robberies involving a gun have declined by 17.8%.
18. Robberies where a firearm was discharged rose by 10 from 43 in 2009/10 to 53 in 2010 while robberies where a knife was used to injure fell by 34 / 9.3%. Those robberies only make up around 0.3% and 2% respectively of all robberies.

19. MV crime is now showing an increase of 663/+1.3% and is broken down as follows:

• Vehicles stolen - There have been 356 / 2.6% more vehicles stolen during this period. However the number of these offences is at its second lowest since at least 1998.
• Thefts from an MV - These are slightly higher than last year with 307 (0.8%) more thefts from vehicles which is short of the goal of a 3.0% reduction.

20. The SAC SD rate of 9.4% is below the target of 12.2% and the rate of 10.0% at this time last year. That is mainly because there have been fewer TICs for theft from a motor vehicle which accounts for around 40% of SAC. The SAC charge rate which is indicative of the number of people caught by the police and taken to court for these crimes is however up on that of last year.

21. The residential burglary SD rate of 13.4% is 1.4% pts above last year’s level but short of the target of 16%. This year there have been 76 more people charged. The charge rate is joint highest with 2002/03 for the last ten years.

22. The robbery SD rate of 16.4% is below its target of 19%. It is slightly above the rate at this time last year of 16.2%. 280 more people have been charged with personal robbery this year - a rise of 14% vs the 6.3% increase in personal robberies.

Most Serious Violence

23. The MPS has reported to previous meetings that MSV plus AWI, which covers all physical assaults, is now the preferred measure for gauging the level of violence. It has fallen by 1,666 offences or -4.4% which meets the target of a 4% decrease set for MSV on its own.

24. The MSV + AWI SD rate is 32.5% vs 31.4% last year. The 2010/11 SD rate continues to be at its highest rate for the last five years. The SD rate for MSV+AWI is a good reflection of the number of offenders caught by the police because TICs are not a significant part of the SDs.

25. Since November 2009 the MPS has run an education programme with school visits to inform young people of the dangers of youth violence and gang involvement.

26. Operation Protect has been set up to tackle after schools violence whereby schools officers and Safer Transport teams work to minimise youth victimisation. It has been enhanced for the weeks leading up to the half term and is utilising the Air Support Unit for high risk schools and parks.

27. Under Operation Safe Bus 2, Safer Transport Command will carry out increased patrols targeted on trouble spots in 5 key boroughs in the period 25th Oct-6th Nov 2010.

Knife crime

28. There have been 182 more knife crimes during this period. That means a rise of 2.9% and so missing the 4% reduction target. However, there have been 81 (3.6%) fewer offences where a knife has been used to injure.

29. In keeping with the overall reduction in MSV + AWI, knife MSV+AWI offences have declined by 81 (3.1%) with about the same rate of reduction for MSV+AWI offences where a knife has been used to injure -3.0% (57). In around two thirds of knife crime a knife has been used as a threat rather than to injure.

30. On the other hand robberies involving knives have gone up by 8.3%. The proportion of robberies with a knife is practically the same as last year (21% 2010/11 vs 20% 2009/10). Robberies without a gun or knife (see para 18 above) have also risen. Given that knife MSV+AWI has decreased, those facts suggest that robbery is driving the knife crime increase. On a positive note, robberies where a knife has been used to injure have declined by 34 or 9.3%.

31. There has been 1 more homicide where a sharp object has been used (28 to 29) this FYTD. This year has the second lowest number of these homicides in the last 9 years.

32. The knife crime SD rate is 25.5% has improved by almost 1% point over this time last year. The SD rate for offences where a knife has been used to injure is higher at 31.9% which is on a par with that for MSV+AWI as a whole and almost 2% points better than last year when it was 30.1%.

33. Our approach to tackling knife crime continues and often is part of the action against robbery see para 15 above. Our focus remains on preventing homicides particularly of teenagers; and we are continuing a rolling programme of knife arches and hand held scanners, boroughs regularly searching parks for weapons and Operations Blunt and Trident conducting a joint campaign against the carrying and use of weapons.

Gun crime

34. Gun crime has fallen by 14.8% so that 2010/11 has 262 fewer of these crimes than last year. The decrease applies to both violence and robbery, which are the principal components of gun crime. The SD rate is 26.0% vs. 25.1% last year.

35. 2010/11 has had 37 / 8.3% less offences where a firearm has been discharged. As previously mentioned, July 2009 and August 2009 were particularly high months and September 2009 was in line with June to August this year so there was some uncertainty about whether the 5% decrease for April to August would hold this month. However this September continued the trend of being below the same month last year and so the decrease has widened from last month’s.

36. Shootings have resulted in the deaths of 16 people this year which is 7 more than last year and 9 more than 2008/09. The average number for the six years before that was 15.

37. The activities to fight gun crime mentioned in previous reports are on-going, including drawing up an action plan to target all individuals known to be linked to gun crime on the six boroughs where gun crime is most prevalent. Moreover the Specialist Crime Directorate (SCD) is continuing to pursue mediation and intervention to reduce serious gun violence.

38. There have been more deployments of armed support for boroughs, e.g. through Op Verano, which tasks appropriate resources in response to intelligence. Additionally, the strength of the proactive team of the unit that deals with firearm situations has been doubled to provide more armed support to other units.

Rape Victims Survey

39. The report to the September meeting of this committee pointed out that because of the traumatic nature of the offence, obtaining robust statistics for monitoring performance is extremely difficult. Therefore it is not appropriate to use the data to compare performance over time. However the data and the victims’ written comments are the best information available into the quality of service the MPS is providing to victims in this sensitive area.

40. The number of respondents has increased from 27 for the first quarter of 2010 to 39 for April to June and to 56 for the quarter July to September. While still only a small percentage of rape victims, the rise in the number of respondents to the survey may in itself be an indicator that the service quality is improving.

41. The KPI derived from the Survey is the percentage of respondents who answered completely or very satisfied to the question on the way they were treated initially by the police. The figure for the quarter July to September was an encouraging 86%. Moreover 92% were satisfied with their treatment by the Sexual Offences Investigation Team officer.

42. In September 2010 changes were made to how referrals of rape victims' details are made to Victim Support to speed up this process and increase the total numbers of referrals where it is safe to do so. Training slides have been provided to boroughs to reiterate the importance of the first response to rape victims and of early notification to the unit that deals with rape cases (SCD 2).

43. A detailed paper on SCD 2’s work with serious sexual offences will be submitted to the December meeting of this committee.

Reported Hate crimes

44. Reported domestic violence (DV) offences have declined by 1,100 / -4.0%. The SD rate is 47.5% and so meeting the 47% target and is a little better than last year’s rate of 46.4%. The DV arrest rate of 79.7% is also above its target of 77%.

45. The 45.9% SD rates for racist and religious crimes is just above the 45% target and 2% points up on last year’s figure of 43.8%.

46. The homophobic crime SD rate is now 46.8%, surpassing the 45% target.

47. There have been 507 (-9.5%) fewer racist and religious crimes and 12 (-1.6%) fewer homophobic crimes.

People killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions

48. In the year to June [1] an average of 249 people a month were killed or seriously injured (KSI) on the roads in London. That figure is below the target monthly figure of 277 and represents 264 fewer KSI victims compared to the previous 12 months. 32 fewer people have died from road accidents in the period April to September 2010 compared to the same period last year, a fall of a third which also applies to fatalities for the rolling twelve months to September 2010. These are hopeful signs of improvement but the MPS remains committed to doing its utmost to minimise the number of KSIs.

49. During September there were 12 proactive operations to reduce KSIs including some aimed at cyclists, motor cyclists and light goods vehicles. Education and enforcement activities were undertaken in support of TfL's trial of motorcycles in bus lanes where there are high numbers of KSIs.

50. Traffic offenders are now being prosecuted at an annual rate of 60,000. These cases all relate to dangerous use of the roads by vehicle drivers and riders and result from collisions, police process reports, fixed penalty notices that have not been complied with, and safety camera speeding and red light offences. Ultimately it is the high volume prosecution activity and the new processing framework that influences the number of disqualifications being achieved. 384 disqualifications were made at court during August 2010 as a result of MPS action, up 12% on the 2009/10 average of 344.

51. Motorcyclists are a particularly at risk group being 1% of road users but constituting 20% of KSIs. The MPS’s traffic unit provides Bike Safe courses to motorcyclists to increase their skills on the road, thereby reducing their involvement in crashes.

Homicide

52. There have been 3 more homicides during this period. However the first six months of 2010/11 has the second fewest homicides for that period since at least 1999/00.

53. As mentioned above there has been a rise of 7 in homicides due to firearms and 1 in those due to sharp objects. To complete the picture there was a decline of 5 in homicides that were not the result of firearms or sharp objects.

54. 2010/11 has had 11 homicides where the victim was aged 1 to 19 while there were 7 in 2009/10. However 2010/11 has the second lowest number of young homicide victims since 2002/03. Six of the 2010 /11 homicides with young victims were the result of a sharp object, which is similar to the figures in previous years, 4 died as a result of firearms and the other 1 was killed by other means.

55. The detection rate for 2010/11 is 100% against the target of 85%. Because of the length of time investigations take, the detections used in calculating the rate may be for homicides in previous years and so the rate can be 100% or more.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

56. As previously reported the recruitment of police officers has been paused and so the percentage of officer recruits from BME backgrounds is unchanged since last month at 12%.

57. In accordance with the request made at the September meeting, data is provided on the retention and progression of BME officers by rank and directorate over the last five years.

Retention

58. During the last five years the overall rate of turnover has decreased from 5.1% (2005/06) to 3.8% (2009/10). Table A provides a comparison of the turnover and resignation rates for BME and white police officers by business groups during the period.

Table 1 - comparison between police officer turnover and resignation rates by business groups and financial year - “Turnover” includes resignation and retirement

Source: MPS Strategic Centre (Recruitment and Workforce Planning)

59. The turnover rates for both BME and white police officers have decreased during the same period (i.e. 3.3% to 2.3% BME, and 5.3% to 4.0% white). However, it should be noted that the high level of retirements amongst the white police officers with 30 years or more service distorts the overall turnover rates.

60. During the last five years the overall rate has decreased from 1.1% to 0.8%, with decreases in both BME and white resignation rates (i.e. 1.9% to 1.2% BME, 1.0% to 0.8% white). Resignation rates are generally highest amongst recruits. However, since the introduction of the Initial Police Learning and Development Programme there has been a significant reduction in resignation rates amongst both BME and white recruits (e.g. 8.2% to 1.8% BME, 6.5% to 4.2% white). The gap between BME/white resignation rates has decreased during the last five years, falling from 1.9% BME and 1.0% white in 2005/06, to 1.2% BME and 0.8% white in 2009/10. There is an expectation that the gap will shrink further during the near future.

Progression

61. Between 2005/06 and 2009/10, the overall number (full time equivalent) of BME police officers has increased by 35.6%, from 2,286 (7.4% of all officers) to 3,100 (9.3%). Table B provides a summary of BME police officer progression within key ranks during the last five years by business groups.

Table 2 - summary of BME police officer progression by key rank groups and business groups

Source: MPS Strategic Centre (Recruitment and Workforce Planning)

62. The number of BME sergeants has increased from 206 (4.0%) to 305 (5.1%). This amounts to a 48.1% increase in BME representation compared to the 15.1% (784) increase in number of all sergeants, and is consistent with the overall increase in BME police officers. The highest increases in BME officers within the sergeant rank occurred within Boroughs, Specialist Crime and Specialist Operations, where BME officers accounted for 207 (5.7%), 35 (4.7%) and 33 (5.3%), respectively, of sergeants within these business groups at 2009/10.

63. BME police officer representation within managerial ranks (i.e. inspector and higher) has increased from 100 (3.9%) to 108 (4.3%) during the last five years, whilst the overall number of managerial posts has decreased by 50 posts. Although the current freeze on promotion will reduce the number of opportunities for advancement during the near future, the issue of BME representation at the ranks of inspector and above will continue to be one that the MPS will be focusing on.

% Milestones for the Olympic and Paralympic Games met

64. As previously reported to this committee the MPS is now providing a qualitative risk exception report instead of the above KPI. That document reports on the top risks to the Olympic and Paralympic Safety and Security Programme where a significant change has occurred in the risk response plans or in the likelihood or proximity of a particular risk. The risks referred to are those identified by the Olympic and Paralympic Security Directorate Portfolio Management Office as top programme risks.

65. The MPS Olympic Security Directorate has reviewed the Portfolio Risk Register to better align it with the risks identified by the Government Olympic Executive. However, this has not resulted in any significant changes to the Olympic Safety and Security risks for the period of 13th September until 11th October. All such risks are managed through the MPS Olympic Security Directorate and in partnership with the other Olympic agencies and government departments.

66. The development of the Olympic Business Group Risk Log is now under way. This is the first step towards changing the emphasis of this report from risks to the whole Olympic Safety and Security Programme, which includes partners, to risks to the MPS arising from the Olympic Games.

67. It is anticipated that a revised reporting regime, against the Olympic Business Group Log, will be available in December.

Cashable savings delivered

68. This information is provided quarterly and so there is no update to the information provided in the previous report.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Race and Equality Impact

1. The regular review of the statistics provided enables the MPS to highlight areas for diversity and equality consideration and address them accordingly.

Consideration of MET Forward

2. The KPIs and other corporate measures covered in this report reflect performance against the key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

3. Previous reports have mentioned the Government’s ‘in year’ reduction in policing grant and the resulting cuts of £28m in general expenditure and £5m in counter terrorism funding Work is continuing on a package of proposals to deal with this reduced funding which is on top of the £124m deceases that were part of the 2010/11 budget.

4. The MPS is unlikely to know the full impact of the budget reductions from the CSR announced on 20 October for several months because of the complexity of its funding structures. These include central and specific grants, precepts and additional funding from organisations, such as local authorities and TfL, who buy additional policing services, Those organisations’ own budget reductions may effect the level of the extra services they purchase from the MPS

5. As mentioned above, the final impact on the MPS budget will clearly be challenging, given the efficiencies already built into the Service’s budget. The Service will work with the Authority in developing the 2011-14 Budget and Business Plan against these challenging financial constraints.

6. The revenue monitoring position for 2010/11 at Period 5 (to the end of August) is a forecast overspend of £14.8m (0.5% of budget). Management Board are actively identifying options for reducing forecast expenditure in order to manage this position.

7. The Capital Programme as at Period 5 (to the end of August) shows year to date total expenditure of £56.8m. This total represents 20.6% of the revised annual budget of £276.3m (excluding over-programming). The forecast for the year of £284.0m includes over-programming of £10.1m above the forecast capital funding figure of £273.9m. However, the expectation is that expenditure will be kept within approved funding levels.

8. The costs associated with monitoring and presenting the data set out above are all covered within existing service wide budgets as approved within the 2010/13 Business Plan.

Legal Implications

9. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

10. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

11. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

12. The Strategic Operational Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

Environmental Implications

13. This report contains no direct environmental implications. The MPS has included an indicator relating to the percentage change in total tonnes of CO2 emissions (from buildings, vehicles, operational air travel) which is reported annually within Appendix 2.

Risk Implications

14. Risks and opportunities identified in related to performance against the KPIs are reflected in the content of this report.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, MPS Strategy and Improvement Department, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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