MPS growth issues 2003/2004

Report: 9
Date: 27 March 2003
By: Commissioner

Summary

Issues concerning MPS growth in 2003/04 were the subject of discussion at the informal MPA Co-ordination and Policing meeting on 7 March 2003, when they were remitted for further consideration at the MPA Budget Group on 20 March. It is intended to circulate a more detailed report immediately after that Budget Group meeting, in advance of the Full Authority meeting on 27 March 2003.

A. Recommendations

That this report be noted.

B. Supporting information

1. The Commissioner and MPS Management Board have endorsed proposals concerning the distribution of deferred growth from 2002/03 and new growth for 2003/04. Those proposals, which were discussed in the informal session of the Co-ordination and Policing Committee on 7 March, cover the following issues:

• Hendon BWT issue and funding of officers in Training School
• Hendon recruitment targets for 2003/04
• Options for achieving recruitment targets
• The additional 1,000 officers to be recruited in 2003/04 – allocation of 601 officers to Boroughs and 399 to non-borough units, and C3i issues
• 2003/04 allocation of PCSOs to Boroughs

2. At the informal Co-ordination and Policing Committee session the proposals were remitted to an MPA Budget Group meeting on 20 March for further discussion, in advance of MPA Full Authority meeting on 27 March.

3. A more detailed report setting out those proposals and their implications in the light of discussions at both the Co-ordination and Policing meeting and Budget Group, will be circulated immediately following the meeting of the latter on 20 March 2003, in advance of and for consideration at this meeting of the full Authority.

C. Equality and diversity implications

Growth in police officer and civil staff numbers will be achieved in accordance with the equal opportunity and diversity policies and objectives of the MPA and MPS.

D. Financial implications

The financial implications of the proposals to be considered at the meeting of the Full Authority on 27 March 2003 will be set out in full in the more detailed report to be circulated immediately after the MPA Budget Group meeting on 20 March 2003.

E. Background papers

None

F. Contact details

Report author: Rose Fitzpatrick, Commander MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

MPS growth issues 2003/2004: Supplementary report

Report: 9 (Supplementary)
Date: 27 March 2003
By: Commissioner

Summary

This report sets out the issues for the MPS surrounding police officer and PCSO growth in 2003/04. It summarises the options available to advance recruitment, and therefore deployment, of the new officers and identifies the financial implications thereof.

A. Recommendations

That the Authority:

1. Notes that the recruit Budgeted Workforce Target (BWT) at Hendon will remain unchanged in 2003/04 and that recruits undergoing training at Hendon will be counted against the BWT of their destination OCU.
2. Notes that the MPS 2003/04 recruitment target for police officers will be 2,840.
3. Notes the order in which the remaining 2002/03 and new 2003/04 growth in police officers will be prioritised and managed.
4. Agrees to accelerate recruitment in 2003/04 in order to bring forward the timescales for deployment of additional officers in accordance with the recommended Option 2, at an additional cost of £6 million.
5. Requests that Finance Committee determine the most appropriate source of funding the additional cost referred to in Recommendation 4, with the presumption that this would be identified within the approved 2003/04 budget but recognising that use of the 2002/03 underspending may be necessary as a last resort.
6. Notes the allocation in 2003/04 of growth of 601 additional officers across TP boroughs, distributed in accordance with the updated borough Resource Allocation Formula.
7. Notes the allocation in 2003/04 of 1,000 additional PCSOs across TP boroughs, as agreed by the PCSO Steering Group.
8. Notes the allocation in 2003/04 growth of 399 additional officers other than to TP boroughs, in support of MPS priorities.

B. Supporting information

1. The MPS has seen significant growth in 2002/03, and funding has now been agreed for further growth of a similar order in 2003/04. The growth for 2002/03 is still in process and, on completion, will have delivered an extra 487 police officers to TP boroughs, 353 to Specialist Crime (previously Specialist Operations), 141 to Human Resources, 15 to the Deputy Commissioner’s Command and 4 to the Directorate of Resources.

2. The Commissioner and MPS Management Board have now endorsed proposals made by MPS HR Star Chamber concerning the distribution of deferred growth from 2002/03 and new growth for 2003/04. Those proposals and their implications are set out in this report as follows:

• Hendon Budgeted Workforce Target (BWT) and funding of officers in Training School
• MPS police officer recruitment targets for 2003/2004
• Options for achieving recruitment targets
• Mayor’s 1,000 2003/04 – Allocation of 601 officers across TP Boroughs, and C3i issues
• Allocation of PCSOs to TP Boroughs 2003/04
• Mayor’s 1,000 2003/04 – Allocation of 399 officers other than to TP Boroughs
• Civilian staff, accommodation and other costs supporting the growth in officers

Hendon Budgeted Workforce Target (BWT) and funding of officers in Training School

3. As previously reported, it is a feature of such substantial growth that, at any one time, large numbers of officers will be in training at Hendon. For this reason, the BWT figures for Operational Command Units (OCUs) comprise the actual number of officers on the OCU at that time together with a number of officers allocated to that OCU who are actually completing their training at Hendon.

4. In the interests of clarity and reducing bureaucracy, the following approach has been agreed by all MPS Business Groups. The 366 recruit BWT at Hendon will remain unchanged. Recruits undergoing training at Hendon will be counted against the BWT of their destination OCU. The agreed recruitment plan will indicate the number of recruits that each OCU will have included in their BWT, but who will effectively be at Hendon during periods of the financial year. OCUs will therefore have this element of the growth budget retained centrally to meet the respective training cost.

5. OCUs will therefore be allocated budgets based on:

• Agreed planned officer strength on 1 April 2003. This will include the prediction of strength over and above total BWT of 28,412 plus 206 C3i deferred growth, less contribution for those officers in training.
• Profile of planned growth, by individual business group, again less budget contribution for those officers who will be in training during the financial year.

6. This approach reflects the reality of managing officers who have to repeat the course, and practical re-posting decisions that are made for the benefit of the service and the officer. It is adopted as a more manageable option than charging recruit salaries to destination OCUs.

MPS police officer recruitment targets for 2003/2004

7. The MPS needs to recruit a total of 2,840 officers during 2003/2004. This assumes that the current forecast strength at 31 March 2003 of 28,639 is achieved. The MPA and MPS have recently resubmitted to the Home Office the original bid for extra funding for counter-terrorist policing in 2003/04; while a further response is awaited, for planning purposes it has been necessary to adopt the assumption that no extra funds for counter-terrorist policing will become available.

8. These figures break down as follows:

• 2003/04 growth:
  • Mayor’s growth: 1,000
  • C3i: 206
  • Transport for London: 238
  • Sub Total: 1,444
• 2003/04 attrition: 2,023
  • Sub Total: 3,467
• Less forecast over on 31/3/03: -227
  • Total recruitment needs: 3,240
• Less transferee target: -400
• Total probationer recruitment needs: 2,840

Options for achieving 2003/04 recruitment targets

9. The Commissioner and Management Board have indicated their intention that growth should be prioritised and managed, as follows:

• They intend that Boroughs should not fall below the BWT attained on 31 March 2003
• They would wish to deliver the 601 Borough growth posts by the end of May 2004
• Other growth to be prioritised thus:
  • Vacancies (each Business Group to decide own priorities for filling vacancies within own Group)
  • CT growth 2003/2004
  • Deferred growth 2002/2003 (each Business Group to decide own priorities for filling deferred growth within own Group)
  • Other growth 2003/2004.

10. The MPS 2003/04 budget is sufficient to deliver the agreed growth in officer numbers by 15 November 2004. However, the MPS wishes to reduce the time new recruits spend waiting for a place at Hendon, advance the recruitment profile and bring forward the deployment of the growth in officers across the organisation.

11. In addition to the original recruitment projection on which the 2003/04 budget for growth was based, three other options have been identified that accelerate the rate of recruitment intake and result in the following increased costs:

• Option 1 £4.3m
• Option 2 £6.0m
• Option 3 £8.4m.

12. All these options are set out in detail at Appendix A, showing the dates by which the various categories of growth would be achieved. Indicative (recruit salary and equipment only) costs associated with these options have been provided by MPS Finance Directorate, on the same basis as that used for MPS budget calculations. These options were discussed at MPA Co-Ordination and Policing briefing session on 7 March and considered at MPA Budget Group on 20 March 2003.

13. Options 1, 2 and 3 each allow Boroughs to achieve their growth by May 2004, while the Budget Option does so by June 2004. Every option ensures that Borough numbers are maintained at that level while the other categories of growth are then achieved. Option 2, while not the most expensive option, delivers the completion of all growth by the earliest date, 30 July 2004.

14. It will, of course, be necessary to give proper consideration to the balance of experience and skills levels across the organisation as this substantial growth is achieved.

15. Options 1, 2 and 3 carry significant extra costs because they require significant extra numbers of recruits to be taken into Hendon early in the financial year, incurring salary costs for longer periods. The implications for recruitment and training processes are reported at Appendix A. These are particularly significant for Option 3, creating substantial extra costs over and above recruit salary and associated costs. Option 2, at a cost of £6m, achieves the delivery of all growth by the earliest date, 30 July 2004, without the substantial extra costs of Option 3. Option 2 is the recommended option.

Recommended option – Option 2 – additional £6m cost

16. Implementation of this option gives the organisation a very real opportunity to reap substantial recruitment benefits. These benefits include being able to reduce the period between selection and starting at Hendon for new recruits, which may well reduce the drop out rate at that stage. They also include allowing the MPS to achieve the intended growth for 2003/04 in advance of the original recruitment profile and thus to achieve significantly earlier deployment of the growth in officers across the organisation.

17. Whichever option is progressed, the short timescale before the start of the financial year 2003/04 means that it is necessary to ensure now that the first 2003/04 intake of recruits into Hendon is as large as possible in order to prime growth for 2003/04.

Mayor’s 1,000 2003/04 – allocation of 601 officers across TP boroughs

18. The majority of the 1,000 police officer growth for 2003/04 is to be allocated to boroughs. The 601 additional officers allocated to boroughs are to be deployed based on the MPA/MPS Resource Allocation Formula with updated census and demand figures for each borough. They are set out in full at Appendix B. The target figures shown may include some officers allocated to that borough who, at that date, are completing training at Hendon.

19. Advice has been taken from the C3i project team as to the impact of C3i on Borough staffing numbers during 2003/04. The release of the 206 police officers funded through the C3i project will be dependent on the recruitment of civilian communication officers. There will be a phased release of police officers until January 2006, but this is weighted towards the end of the project in order to build in maximum resilience during the final phases of transition, and to allow parallel running. The release of police officers from control rooms during 2003/04 will therefore be minimal.

2003/04 Allocation of PCSOs to TP Boroughs

20. The distribution of PCSOs to Boroughs has been agreed by the MPA/MPS Extended Police Family Programme Board. The distribution is set out in full at Appendix C.

Mayor’s 1,000 2003/04 – allocation of 399 officers other than to TP boroughs

21. The Commissioner and Management Board have allocated the non-Borough growth primarily to operational functions. Resources Directorate did not bid for police officer growth. The Deputy Commissioner’s Command withdrew its growth bid for officers and Human Resources reduced its bid to cover only driver training and officer safety training, a total of 25 officers.

22. These 25 officers have been subtracted, on a proportionate basis, from the original proposals for Specialist Operations (non CT) and Specialist Crime growth allocation to arrive at the figures shown above. It will be for AC Veness to manage the role identification of the 100 officers allocated as growth for counter terrorist functions.

23. Clearly, the major part of growth is to be deployed directly on Boroughs. It should be noted, however, that most of the officers posted other than to Boroughs will also have a positive impact on Borough policing.

24. The Specialist Crime Directorate Resource Analysis, January 2003 (work carried out by Accenture on behalf of Specialist Crime), found that 95% of activity in the Specialist Crime Directorate is focused on London Boroughs. Examples include the Child Protection Units which investigate all serious crime involving children and the Homicide Units which investigate all Borough murders. In addition, significant elements of Specialist Operations (such as the Firearms Teams) specifically support Borough activity.

Civil staff, accommodation and other costs

25. The Mayor’s 1,000 growth in police officers also comes with funding for 175 members of civil staff. The allocation process for this civil staff growth is currently being developed by the MPS Budget Change Team and will be subject to ratification by the HR Star Chamber

26. Members will also be aware of the commencement of the project to plan for a possible expansion in police numbers to 35,000 over the medium term. This project will be an integral part of the Medium Term Financial Projection that will be reported to the Finance Committee over the coming months.

27. The project will be focussing particularly on accommodation and other infrastructure issues raised by the prospect of an expansion in police numbers of this order.

28. In the immediate short term, work on current occupancy levels has identified that the whole MPS estate can accommodate the 2003/04 growth in numbers, although there are issues of matching space with growth. Work is underway to maximise existing accommodation to deliver recommended occupancy targets, as well as alternative strategies to enable spare capacity to be maximised in under occupancy Boroughs.

29. Additional funding has been included in the 2003/04 budget for increased accommodation, equipping and other step-change costs. These funds are also available to enable changes in traditional delivery of support services in the short term, where necessary, to accommodate the growth in officer numbers.

C. Equal opportunity and diversity implications

Growth in police officer and civil staff numbers will be achieved in accordance with the equal opportunity and diversity policies and objectives of the MPA and MPS.

D. Financial implications

The following financial implications have been agreed with the MPA Treasurer:

1. The recommended option for accelerating recruitment in 2003/04 is estimated to cost an additional £6.0m beyond the approved budget provision. If the recommendation is agreed by the Authority then a means of funding this additional cost will need to be identified.

2. This could be found either within the approved total budget for 2003/04 or from underspending carried forward from 2002/03. The proposed recruitment profile relates explicitly to 2003/04 and in that context the additional expenditure would be one-off. The Authority would be incurring earlier a proportion of the full year cost to which it is already committed by the decision to recruit a net additional 1,000 police officers. However, the strategy for further increases in officer numbers is still being developed, and it should be borne in mind that the argument for bringing forward the recruitment profile may be as pressing in future years. Therefore, although the current decision may not produce a direct ongoing additional commitment, it may lead to pressure to repeat the approach in future years with the implication that a greater proportion of the full year cost of recruitment proposals would have to be budgeted in the year when recruitment takes place. This does not rule out the use of one-off underspending in the current circumstances but it does weaken the rationale.

3. It is therefore suggested that the initial presumption should be that the funding required to support the recommendation be found from within the approved budget for 2003/04. The Finance Committee has already agreed to retain centrally the non-pay inflation provision in next year’s budget as a means of addressing unavoidable budget pressures. Under agreed delegated arrangements, to be reported to the Committee in April, part of this provision has been allocated to meet pressures already identified, and the unallocated balance currently stands at £7.9 million. Superficially the additional recruit payroll costs of £6 million could be met from this source. However this would consume most of the budget flexibility in one go, which would not be prudent. It is therefore suggested that the MPS should review, with the Treasurer, the 2003/04 budget to identify opportunities to contain the additional £6 million cost within the approved total, for consideration and agreement by the Finance Committee.

4. If it is not possible to contain this cost within the 2003/04 budget then the 2002/03 underspending could be used to meet all or part of the requirement. However this should be seen as a last resort. The 2002/03 underspending, currently forecast at £24 million, is already subject to substantial demands, primarily the need to increase provisions for current pension and third party liabilities in order to remove the qualification from the Authority’s accounts. The Authority has agreed that underspendings should be used for this purpose, an approach publicly supported by the Mayor. There are other high priority demands for utilisation of the underspending such as allowing a degree of carry forward for underspent devolved budgets. Use of part of the underspending to fund the current report’s recommendation would therefore have to be considered by the Finance Committee alongside other competing demands once the final outturn for 2002/03 is clear.

5. It is considered that out of the proposed review of the 2003/04 budget or, failing that, the 2002/03 underspending, there is reasonable certainty that funding will be identified to support the additional cost of accelerating police officer recruitment. In extremis it would still be possible part way through the year to adjust recruitment so as to avoid the additional cost if no funding source could be identified.

E. Background papers

None

F. Contact details

Report author: Rose Fitzpatrick, Commander MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

Appendix A: Options for proposed use of part of projected MPS 2002/03 budget underspend to bring forward 2003/04 growth

Budget option – no additional cost

1. This is based on the 2003/04 MPS budget assumption which was agreed in 2002. It is based on half year costs for the growth officers and was set using the traditional HR model of intakes of the same number, spread over the year. This option spreads recruitment over 10 level intakes, reducing class sizes from the 28-30 peak seen in 2002/03 to 21-22. Borough street duties courses will also be reduced in size from current levels. It achieves Borough growth by June 2004 and the remainder of growth by 15 November 2004.

Option 1 – additional £4.3m cost

2. This spreads recruitment over 10 intakes ranging in size. This option would cost £4.3m more than the current Budget Option because more officers are recruited earlier in the year. It maintains the 10 intake pattern and can be supported by MPS HR Recruitment, with class sizes reducing from 21 earlier in the year to 14 later. Borough street duties courses will also be reduced in size from current levels. It achieves officers being posted to Borough by May 2004. It delivers growth to fill vacancies and CT growth 11 weeks earlier than the Budget Option, and deferred growth 5 weeks earlier, but all growth is only completed by the same time as the Budget Option, 15 November 2004.

Option 2 – additional £6m cost

3. This spreads recruitment out over the year with 10 intakes ranging in size but typically larger than Option 1. This option would cost £6m more than the current Budget Option because intakes at the start of the year are larger and recruit salary costs are therefore incurred for longer. It maintains the 10 intake pattern and can be supported by MPS HR Recruitment, with class sizes reducing from 21 earlier in the year to 13 later. Borough street duties courses will reduce in size for three intakes. It achieves officers being posted to Boroughs by May 2004 and also delivers each category of growth earlier than either of the two previous options. In particular it delivers the completion of all growth by 30 July 2004, some 15 weeks earlier than either the Budget Option or Option 1.

Option 3 – additional £8.4m cost

4. This spreads recruitment out over the year with 12 intakes ranging in size, the largest earlier in the year. It introduces additional overlapping intakes in April and September 2003. It achieves Borough growth by May 2004 and produces enough officers early enough in the year to deliver vacancies, CT growth and deferred growth in advance of Option 2. However, despite costing some £2.4m more than Option 2, it does not deliver the completion of all growth until 1 September 2004, some 5 weeks after Option 2, because later intakes of recruits are much smaller in size.

5. This option would cost £8.4m more than the current Budget Option in terms of recruit salary and associated costs. Notably, however, it presents some other significant challenges in recruitment and training. It would reduce class sizes to between 22 and 15 but insufficient trained staff would be in place to resource the additional April intake and a mixture of Borough trainers on loan and external trainers would therefore be required. As well as placing an additional strain on Boroughs, indicative costs for external instructors are high.

6. Meeting the projected need for 15-20 external trainers to resource this option would create an extra cost of £330,000-£444,000 over and above the £8.4m recruit costs. In addition, the overlapping intakes which feature in this option create a requirement for additional accommodation for 128 officers for 3 weeks at a cost of approximately £53,000 for each of the extra intakes. Total additional costs, over and above the £8.4m for recruit salaries and associated costs, are therefore of the order of £436,000-£550,000.

Options summary

7. Options 1, 2 and 3 each allow Boroughs to achieve their growth by May 2004, while the Budget Option does so by June 2004. It will, of course, be necessary to give proper consideration to the balance of experience and skills levels across the organisation as this substantial growth is achieved. Every option ensures that Borough numbers are maintained at that level while the other categories of growth are then achieved. Option 2, while not the most expensive option, delivers the completion of all growth by the earliest date, 30 July 2004.

8. The recommended option is Option 2.

Appendix B: Mayor’s 1,000 2003/04 – allocation of 601 officers across boroughs

The 601 officers are to be allocated by MPA/MPS RAF with updated census and demand data. The target figures shown may include some officers allocated to that borough who, at that date, are completing training at Hendon.

* Existing 2002/03 ‘High Tide’ Boroughs

Appendix C: 2003/04 Allocation of PCSOs to TP Boroughs

The distribution of PCSOs to Boroughs has been agreed by the MPA/MPS Extended Police Family Programme Board

*702.5 has been used instead of 700 hundred due to rounding error

**This adjustment is necessary in order to give Camden, Kensington & Chelsea and Lambeth 30 officers

*** Lambeth are currently employing 15 PCSOs on full time security patrols

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