Headline Performance report 2010/11

Report: 5
Date: 14 October 2010
By: Deputy Commissioner on behalf of the Commissioner

Summary

This paper describes performance in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and other corporate measures compared to their 2010/11 targets in the Policing London Business Plan 2010–13 for the Financial Year To Date (FYTD) to August 2010.

A. Recommendation

That

1. Members note the 2010/11 performance in the indicators shown in the Policing Plan against their targets and the MPS’s activity underway to improve outcomes.

B. Supporting information

1. This report provides an overview of how the MPS is performing in the financial year 2010/11 to August 2010 against the targets set for 2010/11 in the MPA/MPS Policing London Business Plan 2010 -13. The Plan’s primary goals are to reduce crime and increase public confidence in the MPS. The comparisons in the report are of the FYTD compared to the same period in 2009/10 unless otherwise stated.

Report structure

2. The body of the report focuses on how the KPIs are performing against targets and against the same period last year. It has 2 appendices:

• KPIs - the corporate ‘key’ measures highlighted in the Policing Plan (Appendix 1).
• Other Corporate Policing Plan Indicators – all non-KPI corporate measures (CMs) featured in the Policing Plan (Appendix 2).

The indicators are graded red, amber or green in Appendix 1 as follows:

• Red - performance off target and worse than at the same time last year
• Amber - performance off target but better than at the same time last year
• Green - performance is on or better than target.

Current performance focus

Summary

3. Generally most crime covered in this report fell in August compared to previous Augusts.

4. Residential burglary continues to be well below last year’s level with over 2,200 fewer offences this year. 174 more people have been charged with residential burglary - an increase of almost 15%. The rate of residential burglaries where there is a charge is at its highest level FYTD since at least 1998/99 contributing to the improvement in the sanction detection (SD) rate from 11.7% to 12.9% in spite of a fall in cases Taken Into Consideration (TICs).

5. There have been 184 fewer gun crimes this year, a fall of over 12% and there have been 17 fewer crimes where a firearm was discharged (-4.6%).

6. The MPS is now achieving the targets for the domestic violence SD rate (47.1% vs 47% target) and for the domestic violence arrest rate (79% vs 77% target).

7. The SD rates for robbery, motor vehicle (MV) crime and residential burglary, racist and homophobic crime are still below their targets. The rates for racist and homophobic crime are only just missing them while the robbery rate is almost at the same level as last year.

8. Robbery has gone up by 3.8% but that means the rate of increase is slowing down because in July FYTD robbery was increasing by 5%. August 2010 had the fewest robberies for that month since 1999/00.

9. Knife crime is showing a small rise of 1.6% / 83 offences but the rate of increase has slowed from the 3.1% reported for the FYTD to July. While there has been an increase in robberies where a knife was used there have been 91 fewer total offences (4.7%) where a knife was used to injure.

10. At the 23 September joint meeting of the Strategic and Operational Policing and Finance and Resources Committees, it was noted that the MPS would no longer report on the KPIs relating to the Police Pledge promises met and the % of Olympic and Paralympic milestones met. However the MPS would report qualitatively by exception on the risks to the Olympic and Paralympic projects.

11. The budget cuts from the Comprehensive Spending Review to be announced in October remain a major hurdle for the MPS to deal with. It will not be easy to reduce spending along the lines of the cuts predicted; and maintain the current high level of service to London.

Confidence in local policing, User Satisfaction and Satisfaction of white & BME victims with the overall service provided
12. There is no new data for these KPIs as they are derived from quarterly survey results.

Confidence in local policing

13. At the 23rd September meeting of the joint Strategic and Operational Policing and Finance and Resources Committees, the MPS mentioned that it would be submitting proposals for an alternative measure and/or target for this KPI at a future date.

Policing Pledge Promises

14. At the joint meeting of the Strategic and Operational Policing and Finance and Resources Committees it was noted that reporting on this indicator would cease. The MPS will report to the November meeting of this Committee on developing a replacement for the Pledge.

Serious Acquisitive Crime (SAC)

15. There have been 1,712 / -2.1% fewer serious acquisitive crimes (robbery, motor vehicle crime and residential burglary), not far off the 3.2% reduction target.

16. Residential burglaries have fallen by 2,281 equating to -9.4% and so meeting the -4% target. 2008/09 and 2007/08 FYTD did not have a lot more burglaries than 2010/11 and so 2010/11 FYTD is running a little under the three year average though at the lowest level since 1998/99. The previous report mentioned that due to the demands of other priorities, Operation Bumblebee would not be run this autumn. Although the Bumblebee task force will no longer operate, the MPS will continue to publicise Bumblebee and boroughs will continue to focus on reducing burglary.

17. The rate of increase for robbery has slowed from +5% in July to +3.8% (530 offences) in August but the target of -3.0 % is not being achieved. August 2010 was encouraging with the fewest robberies for that month since 1999/000. While there are more robberies this year than in the last two years, there are fewer than those for the previous 8 FYTDs (2000/01-2007/08).

18. There were 115 (15.5%) fewer robberies where a gun was involved (4% of robberies) but the number where a firearm was discharged rose by 12 to 49. Knife robberies (c. 20% of robberies) went up by 162 (+5.7%). However robberies where the victim was injured by a knife declined by 39 (-12.7%). There were almost 500 (4.7%) more robberies where a gun or knife was not involved.

19. The drop in business robbery has widened from 7.3% in July FYTD to -10.3% representing 133 fewer robberies than last year. Business robbery accounts for around a tenth of robbery.

20. MV crime is now showing a slight increase of 39 offences / 0.1%.

21. MV crime is broken down as follows:

•  There have been 162 (1.4%) more vehicles stolen this FYTD. The numbers of vehicles stolen is still the second lowest for the FYTD and for the month of August since at least 1998.
•  Thefts from an MV are slightly lower than last year with 123 fewer thefts (- 0.4%) but not quite meeting the 3.0% reduction target.

22. The SAC SD rate of 9.0% is below the target of 12.2% and the rate of 10.0% at this time last year. There are three kinds of SDs for SAC - cautions, charges and TICs. The principal reason for performance this year being lower than last year is that there have been fewer TICs for SAC, particularly for theft from a motor vehicle which accounts for 40% of all SAC. The charge rate is on a par with that of last year.

23. While missing the ambitious 16% target, the residential burglary SD rate is now 12.9%, an increase of 1.2% pts over last year. This improvement over last year has occurred despite a reduction in TICs. That is because there have been 174 (14.6%) more people charged and that could be a factor in the reduction of residential burglary this year. People charged with residential burglary are likely to get a custodial sentence if convicted.

24. The robbery SD rate of 16.0% is below its target of 19% which is a very challenging one. It is almost on a par with last year’s performance of 16.2%. 170 more people have been charged with personal robbery this year - a rise of 10%.

25. As mentioned above, there has been a big drop in TICs for MV crime and that is the prime factor why the MV SD rate at 4.7% is below the target of 7.5%. May, June and July in 2009 in particular had very high numbers of SDs mainly due to lots of TICs. This was the case to a lesser extent for the months August ’09 to October ’09 so the gap between this year and last is likely to remain for the next few months.

Most Serious Violence (MSV)

26. As reported to the last meeting, the MPS has moved away from looking at MSV on its own as a measure of the trend in violence because of misunderstanding of the classification guidance last year. The measure used now is MSV plus Assault With Injury (AWI) which covers all physical assaults.

27. There have been 1,500 fewer of these offences this year giving a reduction rate of 4.8% which is an improvement on the 3.2% decrease for the FYTD to July and surpasses the 4% reduction target set for MSV. August had the fewest offences for a month since February.

28. The MSV + AWI SD rate is 32.0% vs 30.7% last year. The 2010/11 FYTD SD rate is the highest rate over the last five years. The SD rate for MSV on its own is 38.1%, a big improvement on the comparable figure last year of 32.6%. However, as mentioned in the previous report part of the improvement may be related to the classification issues around MSV. It is worth noting that unlike some types of acquisitive crime, TICs are not a significant component of the SD rate for MSV+AWI and so it is a good reflection of the number of offenders caught through police action.

Knife crime

29. There have been 83 more knife crimes this FYTD. That means a slight increase of 1.6% and that the 4% reduction target is not being met. However the rate of increase is less than it was at the end of July FYTD when it was +3.1%. The August FYTD knife crimes figure was the second lowest for this period for the last four years when comparable records began. August 2010 had the fewest knife crimes since December and November 2009 - all three months had the same number (974).

30. Knife crime is up on 2009/10 primarily because robberies using knives have increased by 162 or 5.7%. Nevertheless knife MSV+AWI offences have declined by 71 (3.2%).

31. Crime where a knife has been used to injure account for only about a third of all knife crime. In the rest of the offences a knife has been used as a threat. The offences where a knife has been used to injure have fallen by 91 (-4.7%) this FYTD in keeping with the reduction in MSV + AWI. As mentioned in para 18 above, robberies where a knife has been used to injure have also declined.

32. Homicides due to sharp objects have increased by 4 (22 to 26) but there were 42 in 2008. This year is tied for having the second fewest homicides with a sharp object in the last 9 years.

33. Action to combat knife crime has focussed on preventing homicides particularly of teenagers. Boroughs regularly search parks where gangs are known to congregate for weapons. Operations Blunt and Trident have a joint campaign against the carrying and use of weapons.

34. The knife crime SD rate is 25.5%, which is 1.2% pts better than the 24.3% rate at this time last year. The SD rate for offences where a knife has been used to injure is 32% which is similar to that for MSV+AWI as a whole.

Gun crime

35. Gun crime has fallen by 12.5% so that 2010/11 has 184 fewer of these crimes than last year. The decrease applies to both violence and robbery the principal components of gun crime. The SD rate is 27.2% which represents an improvement of 3.1% pts over last year (24.1%).

36. 2010/11 has had 17 (5%) less offences where a firearm has been discharged. As mentioned in last month’s report, July 2009 and August 2009 were particularly high months last year and this is the main reason for the decrease. September 2009 was in line with the last three months this year so the current decrease may be difficult to maintain.

37. 14 people have died from shootings which is 8 more than last year and 7 more than the year before. The average number for the five years before that was 12.

38. The activities to fight gun crime mentioned in previous reports are still on-going. An action plan is being drawn up to focus on all individuals known to be linked to gun crime on the six boroughs where gun crime is most prevalent. SCD are exploiting mediation and intervention opportunities to reduce serious gun violence and those activities are likely to have been instrumental in preventing one murder and numerous shootings.

Rape Victims Survey

39. There is no new data for this KPI because it derived from a quarterly survey.

40. Appendix 2 gives the total number of reported rapes and the SD rates for Stranger 1 (the offender has had no prior contact with the victim) and Stranger 2 (Victim and offender are briefly known to one another e.g. met in a bar).

41. The focus remains on those areas that pose the greatest risk through ongoing partnership work with both the CPS, which has led to a new CPS rape charging centre being formed – and the Havens through the Havens Strategic Board.

42. The importance and significance of victims and their satisfaction is emphasised in the course attended by all officers in SCD2 (the unit that deals with serious sexual offences), is an integral part of the senior management team’s direction of the unit and is one of its three key objectives.

43. The officers dealing with serious sexual offences are encouraged to supply victims with the opportunity to give feedback about how they have been dealt with.

44. An additional source of feedback is being developed with Victim Support to complement the understanding of the issues for victims and identify areas for improving the way they are treated.

Reported Hate crimes

45. Domestic violence (DV) offences have declined by 767 (-3.3%). The SD rate is 47.1% achieving the target of 47%. It is slightly above the 45.7% rate at this time last year. The DV arrest rate of 79% is also above its target which is 77%.

46. The 44.2% SD rates for racist and religious crimes is only slightly short of the 45% target. It is also a slight improvement on last year’s figure FYTD of 43.2%.

47. The situation is similar for the SD rate for reported homophobic crime where the rate is now 43.3% vs. the 45% target. This year is a little below last year’s rate which was 45% at this point in the year.

48. The reported numbers of both these hate crimes have decreased with 408 (-9.1%) fewer racist and religious offences and 28 (-4.3%) fewer reported homophobic offences.

People killed or seriously injured in road traffic collisions

49. For the 12 months to May [1] an average of 251 people were killed or seriously injured (KSI) in road accidents. While this is below the target, the MPS is doing all it can to bring down the number of KSIs further. The year to May 2010 had 276 fewer KSI victims than in the previous 12 months and had the least KSIs for the 12 months to May since at least 2001/02.

50. There were 18 proactive operations during August to reduce KSIs including ones targeting cyclists and large goods vehicles. In support of the Mayor’s cycle strategy and to reduce KSIs, the Traffic OCU is leading on Operation Viarum in partnership with TfL. During 2009/10 the Traffic Criminal Justice Unit has improved its administration of enforcement action. This has resulted in more bad drivers being taken off the roads.

Homicide

51. There have been 9 more homicides this FYTD compared to last year. Nevertheless 2010/11 has the second fewest homicides since 1998/99 and 23 less than 2008/09 FYTD.

52. Paras 32 and 37 above mention the increases in homicides due to guns and sharp instruments and para 33 mentions the importance the MPS attaches to preventing homicides especially of young people.

53. 2010/11 has had 9 homicides where the victim was aged 1 to 19 versus 7 in 2009/10 and 18 in 2008/09. 6 of those homicides in 2010/11 were as a result of a sharp object while in 2009/10 and 2008/09 there were 4 and 13 respectively homicides due to a sharp object. The other three deaths of young people in 2010/11 were the result of shootings.

54. The detection rate is 98% against the target of 85%.

Police officer recruits from minority ethnic groups

55. For the FYTD the % of officer recruits from BME backgrounds is 12% against a 20% target and unchanged since the last report. Last month’s report set out why the MPS would not meet the target for this indicator. It also mentioned that the recruitment of police officers has been paused pending the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) in October. The Strategic and Operational Policing and Finance and Resources Committees noted at their joint meeting that, the MPS will be putting forward proposals to the MPA on an alternative target and/or measure for this topic.

56. The MPS will provide figures to this Committee on the retention and progression of BME officers by rank and directorate over the last five years as per the action from the September SOPC meeting.

% Milestones for the Olympic and Paralympic Games met

57. It was noted at the joint meeting of the Strategic and Operational Policing and Finance and Resources Committees that the KPI “% of Milestones for the Olympic & Paralympic Games met” would not be reported. It was also noted that the MPS is providing instead the qualitative risk exception report that now goes to Performance Board.

58. The changes to the risk list identified by the Olympic and Paralympic Security Directorate Portfolio Office to the Olympic and Paralympic Safety and Security Programme (OSSP) are:

1. Risk 11 Failure to adequately plan for the differences between the Olympics & the Paralympics - now added to top portfolio risk list and will be addressed for the MPS by the MPS’s Olympic Planning Team.
2. Risk 9 Bridging the Gap does not deliver sufficient security -removed from the top list as it is no longer an MPS risk
3. Risk 10 Restructuring after election of a new government - added to top portfolio risk list but the impact on the MPS is likely to be low

59. Last month’s report concentrated on Risk 3 - “inability to recruit and retain appropriately skilled staff” which also said that this risk was subject to monthly review. It continues to be a significant difficulty for a number of projects such as the Olympics Intelligence Centre but work is on-going in the MPS HR Directorate and the wider Olympic programme to reduce this risk.

Cashable savings delivered

60. The target savings built into the 2010/11 Revenue Budget were £124m. Since then the MPS has been informed that an additional £28m of savings will be required in 2010/11 due to an in-year reduction in funding. Current forecasts suggest that the required savings (i.e. the original £124m plus the additional £28m) will be delivered in 2010/11. These savings will continue to be monitored and reported to Management Board and the MPA on a monthly basis.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Race and Equality Impact

1. The report sets out the rates at which hate crimes are solved as well as outlining the current difficulties in recruiting more officers from BME back grounds. The robbery section of the report looks at the ethnicity of victims of robberies where mobile phones and necklaces are taken.

2. The indicator on the percentage of officers recruited who are BMEs is not likely to change before the impact of the spending cuts is known and new recruitment plans are drawn up.

3. The regular review of the statistics provided enables the MPS to highlight areas for diversity and equality consideration.

Consideration of MET Forward

4. The KPIs and other corporate measures covered in this report reflect performance against the key outcomes of Met Forward: fighting crime and reducing criminality, increasing confidence in policing, and providing better value for money.

Financial Implications

5. Previous reports have mentioned the Government’s ‘in year’ reduction in policing grant and the resulting cuts of £28m in general expenditure and £5m in counter terrorism funding Work is continuing on a package of proposals to deal with this reduced funding which is on top of the £124m deceases that were part of the 2010/11 budget.

6. This report has already mentioned the likely Government cuts to police funding which will apply to financial the years after 2010/11 as a result of the Comprehensive Spending Review in October. 2010/11 KPI performance could be affected depending on the scale of those cuts. The MPS will strive to minimise the impact of the reductions in funding on the police service that London receives.

7. The revenue monitoring position for 2010/11 at Period 4 (to the end of July) is a forecast overspend of £20.2m (0.6% of budget). The overspend will be managed down during the course of the year, so that a balanced budget position is achieved and Management Board are actively identifying options for reducing forecast expenditure.

8. The Capital Programme as at Period 4 (to the end of July) shows year to date total expenditure of £43.2m. This total represents 15.6% of the revised annual budget of £276.3m (excluding over-programming). The forecast for the year of £307.5m includes overprogramming of £29.1m above the forecast capital funding figure of £278.4m. However, the expectation is that expenditure will be kept within approved funding levels.

Legal Implications

9. There are no direct legal implications arising, as this is a performance monitoring report.

10. The MPA has a duty to secure the maintenance of an efficient and effective police force for its area and a duty to hold the chief officer of police of the force to account for the exercise of his functions and those persons under his direction and control, under s6 of the Police Act 1996.

11. The MPA also have a specific duty to monitor the MPS’s performance against the Policing Plan under s6ZA of the Police Act 1996, as inserted by paragraph 8, Schedule 2 of the Police & Justice Act 2006 and the Police Authorities (Particular Functions & Transitional Provisions) Order 2008.

12. The Strategic Operational Committee is the relevant committee to receive the report as its terms of reference set out it is responsible for considering and maintaining police performance against the Policing Plan targets and any performance indicators set locally or by external organisations.

Environmental Implications

13. This report contains no direct environmental implications. The MPS has included an indicator relating to the percentage change in total tonnes of CO2 emissions (from buildings, vehicles, operational air travel) which is reported annually within Appendix 2.

Risk Implications

14. Risks and opportunities identified in related to performance against the KPIs are reflected in the content of this report.

D. Background papers

None

E. Contact details

Report author: Worth Houghton, Strategy and Improvement Department, MPS

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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