Population figures

Report: 4
Date: 10 October 2000
By: Commissioner

Summary

This report explains the basis of the population figures used by the MPS. It identifies the limitations of the existing figures in accounting for ethnic make-up and non-resident population in London. It identifies an alternative and describes the impact of the alternative population breakdown on "Stops proportionality".

A. Supporting information

Background

1. On 29 August 2000 the Professional Standards and Performance Monitoring Committee asked for clarification of the population figures used by the MPS in monitoring Stop and Search activity. The meeting asked that the MPS consider alternative population breakdowns, which could give a more up to date representation of the ethnic make up of London. The MPA Full Authority in September questioned the basis of population figures used by the MPS, noting that London had significant workload generated by non-residents.

2. This report explains the basis of the population figures currently used by the MPS and identifies their limitations. It describes an alternative population breakdown, and illustrates the impact of this alternative on the Stop and Search figures discussed at the last meeting.

The population figures currently used

3. The population figures used by the MPS to provide population totals and ethnic demographics for London are those provided by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). These are the population figures laid down for use in the HMIC counting rules.

4. Each year the ONS provide an update on the figures in the last census. This update takes account of births and deaths registered during the year. The 1999 mid-year estimate has just been received.

5. The ethnic ratios from the 1991 Census are imposed on the latest available mid year estimate.

Shortcomings in the current population figures

6. The population figures used by the MPS are those used by the Home Office and dictated by the HMIC.

7. The figures fail to take account of:

• non-resident population (commuters, visitors and others) who add to the workload of the MPS but are not counted in London’s resident population, and
• changes to the ethnic make-up of resident Londoners, which have taken place over the last ten years.

What alternative population figures could be used?

8. The MPS has made representations to the Home Office, and is working with staff from Home Office Performance Unit to identify a population base that takes account of non-resident population.

9. To obtain a more representative ethnic breakdown for London residents, two alternatives have been identified:

• the Labour Force survey, a sample, which has been extrapolated to the total population, and
• the London Research Centre (LRC) figures.

10. The Labour Force Survey data is used in the Section 95 Home Office report, which monitors disproportionality in the criminal justice system. The sample size is quite small, so three year’s totals are added together. The percentage of the estimated labour force in the MPD, which is black, is 7.5%.

11. LRC has developed new population estimates through a “thorough and wide ranging methodology”. This methodology makes a series of justifiable assumptions about population, age and ethnicity. It could provide the basis of a better estimate for use by the MPS. However, LRC themselves have noted that the validity of their assumptions will not be conclusively established until the results of the 2001 Census are made available.

12. Under the LRC system, the non-white population is estimated as 26%, compared with 20% under the original system. The LRC figures have been applied to the Stop and Search proportionality figures, and have been compared with those in the last Quarterly report (April-June 2000). The results are shown in Appendix 1 of this document.

13. The impact of the LRC figures is to reduce the apparent disproportionality between black and white populations, although the differences remain considerable at this level of analysis. Further work to look at age and gender of those stopped is being undertaken by the MPS.

B. Recommendations

1. That MPS work further with MPA officers, LRC, GLA and Mayor’s office to find out what studies of the ethnic makeup of the Metropolitan area have been made and whether any of them might be considered of sufficient standing to provide the basis of some future proportionality figures.
2. That MPS report back on an analysis of age and gender of those stopped.
3. That MPS report back to PSPM on discussions with Home Office over non-resident population.

C. Financial implications

Research effort from MPS Performance Information Bureau (PIB).

D. Review arrangements

Further report to PSPM in January.

E. Background papers

The following is a statutory list of background papers (under the Local Government Act 1972 S.100 D) which disclose facts or matters on which the report is based and which have been relied on to a material extent in preparing this report. They are available on request to either the contact officer listed below or to the Clerk to the Police Authority at the address indicated on the agenda.

• Searches April to June 2000 - The Performance Information Bureau (PIB1) - Metropolitan Police Service - August 2000
• Methodology of the ethnic group projections 1999 Round - Demographic and Statistical Studies - London Research Centre - Marian Storkey, March 2000

F. Contact details

The authors of this report are Howard Greenwood, Performance Information Bureau and Cath Kitching, Corporate Performance Analysis Unit.

For information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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