Policing London Business Plan 2011-14

Report: 6
Date: 31 March 2011
By: MPS Director of Resources on behalf of the Commissioner, and by the MPA Chief Executive

Summary

This report proposes a final Policing London Business Plan 2011-14 and summarises the main changes to the draft discussed at SOP/F&R on 17 March 2011. It recommends that members formally approve this Plan, setting out MPS priorities for 2011-14 and activity for 2011/12 within a legally balanced budget.

A. Recommendations

That Members

1. Approve targets for Key Performance Indicators (KPI) as requested by members at SOP/F&R on 17 February 2011 (Appendix 3).
2. Note the revised funding limit as reflected in the Mayor’s draft budget for 2011/12.
3. Approve, for publication by 31 March 2011, the approved Capital Programme Prudential Indicators and Annual Statement of Minimum Revenue Provision (Appendix 2).
4. Approve the Policing London Business Plan 2011-14, to be issued by 31 March 2011 (Appendix 4).

B. Supporting information

1. In line with the Authority timetable the MPS submitted the draft 2011-14 Budget and Business Plan for consideration at February Full Authority and at joint MPA Strategic and Operational and Finance and Resources Committee on 17 March 2011.

2. Work has continued to finalise the Policing Plan 2011-14 as a result of members’ comments at Joint SOP/F&R and previous Full Authority and extraordinary members’ briefings.
Policing London Business Plan 2011-14

3. Since February Full Authority the Policing Plan has been updated with minor text changes to reflect ongoing work, and:

• Financials have been updated throughout, including revenue and capital budgets, to reflect the current position.
• Deployment numbers have been updated and the contextual text enhanced.
• Some SIP project narratives have been updated to reflect the current position.
• The KPIs have been amended and the performance management text updated.
• Targets have been proposed for all KPIs.
• Business Group activity, revenue budgets and deployments have been included.
• Appendices have been added that meet statutory requirements in a Value for Money Statement, Audit and Inspection activity, and Protective Services, and that outlines our work in Corporate Social Responsibility.

Revenue Budgets

4. The report considered by MPA Full Authority on 24 February 2011 provided an analysis of the latest position on the 2011-14 Revenue Budget. An overall budget position was provided for all 3 years as well as analysis of the individual Business Groups’ position. It was stressed that these Business Group positions were provisional and that further detail would be provided in March as part of the final 2011-14 Policing London Business Plan.

5. Business Groups have now constructed a detailed budget position for 2011/12 that has addressed a number of the uncertainties that previously existed. For example, the police officer numbers previously referred to did not allow for the impact of specific grant settlements and for the impact of loss of funding from external organisations such as London Boroughs although it was indicated that a reduction in establishment in the range of 350 to 520 FTE posts was expected. Whilst the situation on external funding and police numbers is not yet fully resolved, the MPS now has further intelligence on these issues and police numbers have been adjusted accordingly. Further detail of the latest position on Police numbers and an explanation of the movements from the previous planning assumption are provided in paragraph 7.

6. Also, the Business Groups have now made a number of adjustments to budgets in 2011/12 at subjective level (e.g. Employee expenditure/ Premises expenditure) and a brief explanation is provided of the major changes in paragraph 10. It should be noted that the overall financial position for 2011-14 has not changed as a result of this process, i.e. a balanced budget for 2011/12 with budget gaps of £92.8m (2012/13) and £174.3m (2013/14). However, these budget gaps are based on the assumption that committed savings of £163m (2011/12), £260.4m (2012/13) and £322.8m (2013/14) are delivered in full by the Service.

Police Officer Numbers - Planned Strength

7. The table below provides an analysis of the changes to the planning assumptions for 2011-14 for police officer planned strength from the position reported to MPA Full Authority on 24 February.

8. It is important to note that the position outlined in the table below is still provisional. That is, whilst the numbers reflect the latest intelligence with regards to external funding, it is still possible that the boroughs will withdraw funding for some existing funded posts as the budget setting process is finalised for 2011/12. Also, the establishment figures for individual Business Groups may vary from the reality of deployment levels currently within the organisation. During 2011/12, the latest Management Board decisions regarding deployment will be captured as part of a formal quarterly review process of the deployment plan. The budgets will then be adjusted accordingly.

Notes:

1. Anticipated movement on borough partnership agreements based on latest intelligence. See B9 below.
2. This reflects the agreed funding levels at Heathrow Airport.
3. Additional grant received from the Cabinet Office.
4. This reflects the reduction in the number of protections to be undertaken linked to the reduction in grant funding.
5. This reflects a reduction in the number of officers for ports, CTSA and Heathrow Airport.
6. This reflects changes linked to CT Specific and Olympics activity.
7. Additional Officers to be deployed on anti-gang activity. The funding for these officers had already been included in the 2011-14 budget.
8. This reflects the expected reduction in the number of secondees to external organisations from 2011/12.

Borough Partnerships

9. The 2010/11 officer deployment plan includes a number of posts dependent on agreements and funding from London boroughs and other agencies. Given the financial constraints facing our partners there was significant concern that existing agreements would not be continued and the current capacity would not be utilised based on the existing scheme terms. Some 618.5 officer posts were therefore at risk of which 131 posts were not filled as no agreements had been reached with the borough councils.

10. In order to safeguard as far as possible officer resilience the Chair of the Authority, following consultation with the Service, wrote to London Boroughs offering a new match-funding scheme which was supported by an additional 54 officer posts in the draft Policing London Business Plan considered by the Authority in February. Current indications from boroughs are that the scheme will result in agreements requiring a total of 230 officer posts of which 115 will be funded by councils. A report will be submitted to the Authority on the proposed scheme.

11. It is now known that 193 of the 618.5 posts identified above will not be taken up by boroughs in 2011/12, i.e. 131 posts not previously filled and 62 posts where boroughs have terminated existing agreements. However the new match funding scheme has alleviated this to a large extent with the net impact of this scheme on the deployment plan being -17 once the impact of borough withdrawals and the non-take up of the existing schemes are taken into account. The new scheme has, therefore, protected the current deployment plan and can be funded within the overall officer pay budget.

Police Officer Numbers - Actual Strength

12. Following the decision to start some officer recruitment the actual officer strength at 31 March 2011 is expected to be 32,447 including 201 PCSO to Officer trainees.

Staff Numbers

13. In terms of other staffing numbers, the table below provides a comparison of the staffing establishments presented to MPA Full Authority on 24th February with the latest figures. of other staffing numbers, the table below provides a comparison of the staffing establishments presented to MPA Full Authority on 24th February with the latest figures.

14. It can be seen that there are only very minor changes in the establishment figures from those reported to MPA Full Authority in February. In terms of Police Staff, the changes reflect additional posts related to E Crime funding and anti-gang activity with reductions related to the Criminal Records Bureau as a result of a reduction in income. In terms of PCSOs and traffic wardens, the reductions relate to the agreed funding levels for Heathrow Airport.

Financial Summary

15. As stated earlier, the overall financial position for 2011-14 has not changed as a result of the detailed budget build exercise, i.e. a balanced budget for 2011/12 with budget gaps of £92.8m (2012/13) and £174.3m (2013/14). However, these budget gaps are based on the assumption that committed savings of £163m (2011/12), £260.4m (2012/13) and £322.8m (2013/14) are delivered in full by the Service.
16. Appendix 1 provides a summary of those committed savings, and also a summary of committed growth. The Business Groups have not made any significant changes to major savings targets as part of the budget build exercise and therefore the Service Improvement Plan savings presented to the MPA Full Authority in February remain the current planning assumptions together with the reported resilience provision.

17. There have been other changes to budgets subjectively and between Business Groups as part of the budget build exercise. The major changes can be summarised as follows:

• Training Modernisation savings moved from Centrally Held to Human Resources.
• Transport budgets (and agreed savings) moved from various Business Groups into Human Resources.
• Transport Rationalisation savings moved from Centrally Held to Human Resources.
• Additional police officer budgets/income built into centrally held to reflect the latest estimates with regards to the borough match funding scheme.
• Reclassification of PFI charges from Premises to Capital Financing Costs to reflect IFRS requirements.
• Additional specific grant and expenditure within Specialist Crime Directorate to reflect additional E-Crime grant received.
• Various other adjustments to Police Pay and Income budgets to reflect the changes to Police Officer numbers described earlier.

18. It should be noted that there will still be additional changes to budgets at a subjective level and a Business Group level during the coming months as further information becomes available on various funding sources and transfers of function take place as a result of agreed change programmes.

London Assembly Budget Motions

19. As part of the GLA budget process, three parties in the Assembly tabled motions for alternative budget proposals. These proposals are not currently reflected in the Policing London Business Plan 2011-14. Initial responses to these proposals were considered by the MPA joint SOP/F&R Committee on 17 March 2011.

Prudential Indicators and Minimum Revenue Provision

20. Based on the approved Capital Programme 2011/12 to 2017/18 an updated set of prudential indicators have been prepared. Also incorporated is the Annual Statement of Minimum Revenue Provision. These are attached at Appendix 2. The indicators and Statement take account of the application of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the need (a) to bring Private Finance Initiative schemes onto the balance sheet before the end of the 2009/10 financial year; and (b) assets subject to finance leases onto the balance sheet before the end of the 2010/11 financial year.

Performance Framework

21. Work has taken place during February and March 2011 to set out clearly the supporting management information that would underpin each of our nine KPIs, and to define targets for each, monitoring performance over three years.

22. Our monitoring approach is to maintain internal monitoring across the range of indicators throughout the year, and report by exception against underlying indicators when our analysis demonstrates that the trend is exceptional. Members should be re-assured that data collection and a range of performance monitoring, analysis and reporting would continue.

23. SOP/F&R members, on 17 March, requested specific clarification around underlying indicators supporting each KPI. Certain crime types, such a knife crime and gun crime, would be reported monthly to the Authority due to their relative importance. Others, such as removing uninsured vehicles from the roads, would be captured in our underlying indicators (vehicle seizure).

24. SOP/F&R members, on 17 March, accepted the longer term approach but also expressed a strong preference for in-year numerical improvement targets bases around reasoned, evidential analysis. Here we expand on potential numerical improvement targets to be achieved by 2013/14, with in-year targets for 2011/12 based on 2010/11 outturn (projected outturn figures are provided).

25. It is recognised that we continue to police in challenging times and, alongside this, are implementing substantial change programmes that will help to manage significant reductions to our budget. Our operational performance will come under real pressure. Potential numerical targets will need to balance this context with the desire to see continued improvement.

Numerical Targets

26. KPI 1 Violence portfolio

5% reduction by 2013/14 (2% in-year for 2011/12) on 2010/11 outturn.
This portfolio is currently -3% YTD against 2009/10, although the longer term picture shows an increase: 2010/11 is likely to be 2% up on 2007/8. Violence with injury has been declining steadily over the last few years; somewhat offset by increases in common assault and harassment (victim based).
The suggested 5% target is tempered by performance over the past three years but continues the recent decrease in the portfolio as a whole.

27. KPI 2 - The number of sanction detections for rape
10% increase by 2013/14 (4% in-year for 2011/12) on 2010/11 outturn.
This would reflect the intense effort being devoted to solving these offences and public interest in this area. There have been more than 675 SDs in four out of the last six years, most recently in 2009/10 when there were 683.
Members are asked to note that the key indicator within the MPS is the number of sanction detections for stranger 1 & 2, with convictions a key driver.

28. KPI 3 - The number of people killed or seriously injured in road collisions
5% reduction by the end of calendar year 2013 over the end of calendar year 2010 (2% in-year by the end of Calendar year 2011).
As at October 2010 KSIs for the rolling year were 24% below the level of 3 years ago. 5% is a compromise between that outstanding achievement and available funding for road safety projects and enforcement work, equating to a projected target of around 2,800 or fewer KSIs in 2013.

29. KPI 4 - Property crime portfolio
3% reduction by 2013/14 (1% in-year for 2011/12) on 2010/11 outturn.
Performance this year is 1% above the number for 2009/10 but -6% below the 2007/08 level. A 3% reduction over the next three years represents a reduction on 2009/10 as well as reversing the current upward trend in these crimes. However, the target is challenging given the longer term downward trend and proposed allocation of resources across the organisation.

30. KPI 5 - Anti-social behaviour incidents will have an amended national definition for 2011/12. Suggested base line year with a target set once a year’s data is available.

31. KPI 6 - People who think the local police are doing a good job (PAS) - suggested to improve the current 65% levels of confidence by:
2% increase by 2013/14 (1% in-year for 2011/12) on 2010/11 outturn.
Current rolling year performance is 65% with a confidence interval of around 1% - the MPS is best in its MSF group. The suggested target is an increase by 1% each year for the next three years, compounded so that at the end of three years’ performance should be 2% points above the final rate for 2010/11. This could be very challenging as 67% has not been achieved in the last five years.

32. KPI 7 - User satisfaction with overall service - suggested to improve the current 77% level of overall satisfaction by 2013/14 by:
3% increase by 2013/14 (1% in-year for 2011/12) on 2010/11 outturn.
Current rolling year performance is 76.9% with a confidence interval of around 1%. The suggested target is an increase by 1% each year for the next three years, compounded so that at the end of three years’ performance should be 3% points above the final rate for 2010/11. If 2010/11 outturn is 77%, the target would be 80% for 2013/14, not achieved since 2006/07.

33. Targets for KPI 8, London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic games - Olympic safety and security programme status (Red, Amber, Green), and KPI 9, Value for Money, to Deliver a balanced budget for 2011/12 as set out in the Policing Plan 2011-14, have already been set.

34. The KPIs and proposed targets for 2011/12 are shown in Appendix 3.

Equality Impact Assessment

35. The 17 March joint SOP/F&R Committee meeting discussed the Equality Impact Assessment for the Policing Plan 2011-14. This strategic level Assessment will be lodged in the MPA library for public review.

36. MPA/MPS officers will continue to review the 2011-14 EIA to explore equality impacts highlighted through developing Service Improvement and major change programmes. Detailed equality impacts and activity to mitigate this will be debated with the Authority through programme leads.

C. Other organisational and community implications

Equality and Diversity Impact

1. The planning framework for 2011-14 will help to ensure that equalities and diversity implications are properly reflected in budget and business plans. Throughout the planning process Business Groups have been encouraged to consider the impact they have on internal and external communities and therefore develop activities that reflects the Service's commitment to equality and diversity issues.

2. An Equality Impact Assessment on the final Policing London Business Plan 2011-14, based on assessment against our corporate objectives and against key equalities and diversity issues, will be available before publication of the Policing Plan in March 2011.

Financial Implications

3. Financial implications are outlined in Section B of this report and in the Policing Plan Appendix 4. The budget and business plan proposals reflect the Commissioner’s objective of protecting, as far as is practical, operational capability, delivering a balanced budget in 2011/12.

4. The current proposals result in a legally balanced budget for 2011/12, with a core budget gap against the Mayor’s guidance of £92.8m in 2012/13 and of £174.3 in 2013/14.

Legal Implications

5. The Greater London Authority Act 1999, as amended, sets out the requirements of the GLA to calculate the budget requirements for the Mayor, and the Assembly and its four functional bodies. The budget requirements for each body are calculated by determining the difference between projected expenditure and projected income - including specific Government grants. In order for the GLA to estimate the sums required by the MPA/MPS, the MPA/MPS must provide information to the Mayor and Assembly to facilitate this. The Mayor is required to consult with the MPA/MPS prior to setting the final budget.

6. To help assist budget setting and fulfil meeting the priorities within the Policing Plan, the budget and business development process is a key element to ensure there are sound financial plans within which the MPA/MPS priorities and objectives are adequately funded.

7. Expenditure or activities undertaken by the MPA/MPS as statutory bodies must only budget for activities that fall within its statutory powers. There are also positive duties under S3 Local Government Act 1999 to secure the continuous improvement in the ways functions are exercised having regard to a combination of the economy, efficiency and effectiveness. This report identifies steps under the budget and business plan process that will be taken to ensure best value is achieved in the delivery of policing services.

Consideration of Met Forward

8. The MPA has developed a refreshed Met Forward: Two. MPA officers have engaged formally with their MPS counterparts to ensure that the Service's views are reflected in a revised Met Forward: Two that is due to be published on 31 March 2011.

Environmental Impact

9. The proposed planning framework will help to ensure that environmental sustainability issues are properly reflected in future plans and budgets. The MPS CSR Strategy 2010-13 further develops this theme.

Risk Implications

10. There are significant risks inherent in delivering policing services within the current legislative and financial environment, but these are being managed as part of the 2011-14 Business planning process. This will ensure the MPA and GLA are aware of implications to policing from the reduction in future years funding. These risks were set out in the supporting financial document to the submission considered by the Authority in November 2010.

D. Background papers

• Appendix 1 Savings and Efficiencies, and Growth
• Appendix 2 Capital Programme Prudential Indicators and Annual Statement of Minimum Revenue Provision
• Appendix 3 KPIs and Targets 2011/12
• Appendix 4 Policing London Business Plan 2011-14

E. Contact details

Report authors: Anne McMeel, Director of Resources, MPS

For more information contact:

MPA general: 020 7202 0202
Media enquiries: 020 7202 0217/18

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